Chapter 85
 
 
民主力量硬起來吧!


 

  國民黨主席連戰提出邦聯論,來區別李登輝前總統的特殊兩國論,此事由華盛頓郵報報導出來,認為反對黨有事實上向中共靠攏的現象。此事李登輝當然會十分擔心,未來的台灣民主會有變化。

  報導中指出,台灣毫無警覺的向中共投資,其金額之規模,令國際人士歎為不可思議。約有五萬的台灣廠商投注在對岸,約有450億的美金湧入大陸,正何況此金額亦不斷在放大中。

  自從1993年,香港接受一國兩制後,香港成為大陸吸金的源頭,可是台灣一方面受中共文攻武嚇,另方面反其道積極投資於共,台灣人之不能戒急,成為中共分化台灣的最佳狀態。

  台灣已經成為中共最大的資金來源,香港現況經濟潰落,相信台灣的未來會血本無歸,成為新興的破落戶,到底在毫無互相官方保證之內,台商享受中共給予的特許,會突然死得很慘。台商配合阿扁政府的整體政策,方是與中共投資談判的最好方式。中共之看不起台灣政府,乃是台灣人在大陸受到各別的招安,而削減政府相對與中共談判的力量。

  外國對此點亦相當清楚,他們認為台灣人不重視國家主權,只求商業短利,故對李登輝的跳出來喊話,抱持敬佩與同情的態度。看看下面的報導。


Taiwan's Opposition to Shift China Stance

Plan for Confederation With Mainland Reflects Evolving Public Opinion on Island

By John Pomfret
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, July 9, 2001

BEIJING, July 8 -- Taiwan's main opposition party is poised to endorse the idea of creating a confederation with China, a major policy change that would intensify an already fractious political battle on the island between proponents of unification with China and those who want independence.

On Saturday, the Nationalist Party issued a policy paper on relations with China that argued that the best option for Taiwan would be to form a confederation under which both entities would maintain their central governments and control their own diplomacy, national defense and internal affairs.

Nationalist officials said they expected the policy to be approved by the party's Central Standing Committee this week and by its national congress at the end of the month. The policy would then become the party's official platform for legislative, mayoral and county magistrate elections in December.

The policy, proposed by party leader Lien Chan, who was defeated in last year's presidential election, is the furthest any major Taiwanese political organization has gone in proposing a union with China. It constitutes a serious challenge to Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, who before taking office had advocated independence, and illustrates how far parts of Taiwan's society have come in the past year toward accepting the proposition that unification with Beijing is inevitable. The percentage of Taiwanese who say they could accept the "one-country, two-system" arrangement under which China regained possession of Hong Kong from Britain in 1997 is reportedly the highest it has been in years -- about 33 percent, up from 23 percent last December, according to a survey by the United Daily News.

The Nationalist move also presents a challenge for the Bush administration. President Bush has said he will base his Asian policy in part on forging stronger ties with Taiwan, backed by a multibillion-dollar weapons sale designed to free the island from worrying about forced unification with China for years. The action by the Nationalists indicates that at least one major political entity on Taiwan is actively preparing for that eventuality.

The Nationalists, who fled the mainland after their defeat by Communist forces in 1949, governed Taiwan until last year, when Chen became the first outside candidate to win the presidency. Until this weekend, the Nationalists' policy was essentially to stall for time and maintain the status quo, neither rejecting unity with China nor doing anything to further it.

A combination of factors contributed to the new Nationalist policy. First, there is a sense that the democratic, self-governing island is adrift; it lacks political leadership and its economy has sunk to its lowest point in 19 years. At the same time, China's economy continues to grow and attract not only Taiwanese investment but Taiwanese immigration.

About 50,000 Taiwanese companies manufacture goods on the mainland, with total investment of more than $45 billion. An increasing number of influential Taiwanese say the way to improve Taiwan's economy is to forge closer ties with Beijing.

Second, since losing power, the Nationalists have attempted to portray their party as the only one that can improve ties with Beijing and have criticized Chen, who has adopted a cautious policy toward Beijing. The Communist government here has helped to bolster that impression, inviting high-ranking Nationalist officials and legislators to Beijing. The "confederation" plank is another part of that program, although some analysts in Taiwan wondered whether Lien was going too far in extending an olive branch to Beijing.

It's not clear whether Lien's gambit will succeed. In an interview in March, President Jiang Zemin said China could not accept a confederation, and other officials have rejected the idea that Beijing and Taiwan are equals. Beijing maintains that Taiwan is part of China and has threatened to invade the island if it declares independence.

A large percentage of Taiwan's 23 million people, including former president Lee Teng-hui, are still extremely wary of close ties with Beijing. Lee opposes reunification and in recent weeks, he has all but thrown his support behind Chen and encouraged talk among his supporters within the Nationalist Party about forming a splinter party.

The new policy was unveiled by the National Policy Foundation, a Nationalist Party research group, and presented by Su Chi, the former head of the Mainland Affairs Council, the government agency that first set Taiwan's policy toward the mainland under Lee.

  


  台灣政府的用心甚深,可是台灣人的短視,顯然是民主素養太差。

2001.07.08/中央社記者曾志遠紐約八日專電


蘇正平在美報撰文闡述陳水扁總統兩岸政策

  中華民國行政院新聞局長蘇正平日前在芝加哥太陽時報撰文強調,台灣誠心誠意致力和平。他說,台灣是華人社會中唯一真正的民主國家,也是數以萬計華人追求政治自由的指標。西方國家享受自由多年並視為理所當然,或許該提醒北京,「和平」應是與台北進行會談時的指導原則。

  芝加哥太陽時報是全美第十大報,發行量約四十七萬份,蘇正平這篇專文題為「台灣式的中庸之道」,刊登在七日的版面。文中闡述了陳水扁總統為改善兩岸關係所做的努力。

  蘇正平指出,陳水扁總統上任後採取新中間路線,絕大多數的台灣人希望與大陸維持現狀,支持兩岸事務循中間路線處理,因此陳水扁總統的就職演說強調,只要中共不武力犯台,他絕不宣佈獨立,而藉由維持現狀及避免過激政策,中華民國政府每天都在實踐新中間路線。

  同時陳水扁總統也多次談到如何創造「未來的一個中國」,包括允許外島和大陸直航,準備開放大陸人民來台觀光、考慮放寬赴大陸投資限制、允許台灣的銀行到大陸設立代表機構、力促人民支持大陸和台灣同時加入世界貿易組織。但蘇正平指出,我們得到的回應只是中共冷酷地宣示,除非台灣承認北京「一個中國」的原則,否則任何議題的會談都不可能進行。

  他說,台灣的觀點則完全相反。台灣相信經由廣泛的交流,兩岸人民會逐漸捐棄猜忌,友誼伴隨著日益成長的財富,必可導致大陸政治自由及民主化。

  蘇正平強調,台灣的希望是有根據的,美國政府最近允許陳水扁總統過境紐約及休士頓,禮遇一如國家元首,「或許這是一個可以讓中華民國誠摯期待和平的吉兆」。事實上,陳水扁總統也超越過往提出不激怒中共等五點承諾。西方國家享有自由多年,也應有義務提醒北京,「和平」應是它和台北進行會談時的指導原則。

  


  日本人客觀的提出兩岸的兵力分析,以下報導值得參考。

2001.07.06/中央社記者張芳明東京五日專電

日防衛白皮書指台海兩岸兵力各有優勢

  日本內閣今天通過發表二零零一年度版「防衛白皮書」,報告中分析台灣兩岸的兵力指出,中共陸軍具壓倒性兵力,但登陸台灣本島的能力有限,海空軍也具壓倒性數量,台灣則在質的方面占優勢,不過中共擁有將台灣納入射程內的短程導彈。

  這項一年一度的國防報告書中說明中華民國的軍隊時指出,台灣在去年制訂「國防法」,將軍政和軍令一元化,並加強軍隊的政治中立等加以明確化,去年五月陳水扁就任總統後,曾被稱為「國民黨的軍隊」的台灣軍隊成為「國軍」向總統表明忠誠。

  文中指出,台灣的防衛政策是「全民防衛」,原來採取「防衛固守,有效抑止」的軍事戰略,基於防衛守勢的作戰理念,採取被動性戰爭準備行動,陳總統為將台灣人民和財產的被害加以侷限化,以防止在台灣領域內發生戰爭和紛爭為原則而轉變為「有效抑止,防衛固守」的戰略。

  文中分析指出,中共近年來提高軍力,若台灣仍舊採取被動的行動,在對付中共的威脅將有困難,台灣若提高軍力,將可能達成一定程度抑止效果,台灣應將在這種背景的判斷下,轉變軍事戰略。

  報告指出,台灣將於今年完成精實案,減少兵力,陸軍由師的編制改成加強火力和機動力的各兵種的旅編制,海軍則隨著新型軍艦的引進而變更艦隊編制。雖以陸軍為主減少兵力,但開始配備新型地對空飛彈,且已引進自製「經國號」、F─16和幻象兩千型的新型戰機和新型護航艦等。

  報告指出,台灣的陸上戰力由十二個師和兩個陸戰隊師組成,總兵力約二十七萬名,海上戰力有大約三百四十艘軍艦,總噸數約二十萬四千噸,航空戰力包括空軍和海軍在內共有約六百二十架作戰飛機。

  相對地,中共有六十二個陸軍師,總數約一百七十萬名,海軍陸戰隊五千名,軍艦七百七十艘 (其中約有六十五架潛艇) ,總噸數九十萬五千噸,作戰飛機三千六百架。

  文中指出,台灣儘管在軍事裝備現代化,但中共人民解放軍的大幅度現代化,帶給台灣的威脅,不僅是單純數量的優勢,也漸漸轉變成質的競爭,

  報告比較兩岸兵力的特徵分析指出有三:一,中共在陸軍具壓倒性兵力,但登陸台灣本島的侵攻能力有限;二,中共在海空軍力數量的方面雖占壓倒性的優勢,但台灣在質的方面占優勢;三,在飛彈攻擊能力方面,中共擁有將台灣納入射程的短程導彈。

  報告指出,兩岸軍力的比較不僅是兵力、裝備性能和數量,也應從運用態勢,軍隊的熟練度和後勤支援體制等因素來判斷,基於這個觀點,今後兩岸軍力的現代化和美國對台灣軍售等動向值得矚目。

 

2001.07.06/中時即時快報陳進盛台北報導

新版日本防衛白皮書關切中共軍力擴張

  日本內閣會議六日確認了防衛廳所提出的最新版防衛白皮書內容,白皮書對中共最近幾年軍力迅速現代化並增加的情況表示憂慮,並認為中共的軍力擴張可能已超過「防衛的必要水準」。

  日本防衛白皮書以往有關東亞國家軍力記敘篇幅都以俄羅斯為最多,但在冷戰結存近十年後的今年,俄羅斯的記敘只剩下區區五頁,中共部分今年則增加到十二頁,一舉超越了北韓(十頁),成為白皮書「最為關切的對象」,顯示日本對中共軍力迅速擴張的憂心程度。

  白皮書指出,中共國防經費增幅連續十三年達兩位數,今年又增加了十七%,以往中共都說增加經費是用來改善官兵生活,但最近已承認也用於加速軍事現代化,而從俄羅斯相繼引進現代級驅逐艦等各種新式裝備正是其明證,白皮書也因此對中共解放軍「局部科技戰爭」有詳細的介紹。

  


  日本政府說:他們會在台海戰鬥的第一時間緊急至台灣撤僑。參考以下報導:


Japan plans for China-Taiwan clash

Monday, July 9, 2001 at 09:30 JST

TOKYO - Japan will prioritize rescuing Japanese nationals in Taiwan if the island becomes involved in a conflict with China, Defense Agency chief Gen Nakatani said Sunday.

Asked what Japan will do if China and Taiwan clash, Nakatani said in a meeting with residents in Kuwana, Mie Prefecture, that Japan's actions would depend on the circumstances.


  此說明中共犯台的動作,不會因為台灣哈共的熱烈而有所動搖。

  


  日本對中共的長期索求,已經有了強硬改變,日本人認為不可事事聽命中國,如此反而無法得到歷史事實的反省,對中共、韓國、日本皆是一種損失。

  中共之“不仁”,亦引來諸多“不義”的反擊,中共亦須自省。

Calls for history text revision rejected

Japan Today
Teruaki Ueno
Monday, July 9, 2001 at 18:30 JST

TOKYO - In a move that has angered South Korea and is certain to infuriate China, Japan on Monday rejected calls for major revisions to a history textbook that critics say whitewashes Tokyo's wartime atrocities, Japanese officials said.

South Korea warned of tougher action to protest against the Japanese government's approval of the junior high school text, which Seoul says justifies Japan's invasion of much of Asia in the early 20th century and glosses over war crimes.

"We cannot accept the results of the Japanese government's review of the textbooks," Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Han Seung-soo was quoted as telling Japan's ambassador to South Korea.

"We would take tougher measures to deal with the issue, while continuing to push Japan to make changes to the books," a ministry official quoted Han as telling the Japanese ambassador. The official gave no further details.

A ministry spokesman said it had not yet worked out concrete steps to take.

But Japanese and South Korean media said South Korean President Kim Dae-jung was expected to refuse to meet senior officials from Japan's three ruling coalition parties who arrived in Seoul on Sunday.

The history book approved by Tokyo in April has strained Japanese diplomatic ties, especially with China and South Korea, who have both demanded extensive revisions.

"We greatly regret the result, which reflects a clear disregard for the concerns and interests of the Korean people," South Korea's foreign ministry said in a statement.

Japan told South Korea and China on Monday that the textbook contained no "clear mistakes" in its descriptions of modern and contemporary history, Japanese Education Ministry officials said.

Seoul says the book fails to explain the plight of 100,000 "comfort women", most from the Korean Peninsula, forced to provide sex to Japanese troops during World War Two.

It objects to Japan's justification of its 1910-1945 occupation of the peninsula as necessary for stability.

Seoul had urged Japan to act to resolve the thorny issue ahead of the two countries' staging of next year's World Cup soccer finals.

The decision was likely to enrage China, with whom relations are already strained by trade spats and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's controversial pledge to visit the Yasukuni Shrine for Japan's war dead.

If local education authorities in Japan choose the book from among eight newly approved junior high school history books, it would be used from April 2002, the start of the Japanese school year.

Tokyo has said the textbook, which was written for school-children aged 13 to 15, does not represent the government's official view of history.

Education Minister Atsuko Toyama said Tokyo had taken seriously the South Korean and Chinese requests for revisions and examined them "fully and sincerely within the framework of Japan's textbook screening system".

An earlier revision of the book excised a reference playing down the scale of the Nanjing Massacre, in which China says as many as 300,000 civilians died when Japanese troops overran the eastern city in December 1937.

But a screening panel left in other controversial sections, including parts that describe Japanese troops as braving "death with honour".

On Saturday, South Korea's Foreign Ministry said the government would continue to push Japan to make changes to the book, adding that two-way ties would be seriously hurt if Tokyo refused to cooperate.

South Korean television said that Seoul would take various measures, including delaying the opening of its market to previously banned Japanese products.

Japanese history textbooks, periodically updated under a screening system by the Education Ministry, have aroused fierce debate at home and in Asian countries invaded by Japan in the first half of the 20th century.

"Starting with the World Cup to be co-hosted by Japan and South Korea, we would like to make further efforts to realise relations with our neighbours appropriate for the 21st century, by further deepening exchanges in education, academic, sports and cultural fields," Education Minister Toyama said. (Reuters News)

 


  美國於中共導彈之撞機事件中,記取教訓,對中共要求一百萬美金的補償不想再妥協。

 

U.S. rejects China's tab of US$1m for spy plane

2001-07-08
WASHINGTON

The United States has no intention of paying a US$1 million bill China has submitted for the three months a Navy reconnaissance plane spent on Chinese soil, a State Department official said.

The plane made an emergency landing on the Chinese island of Hainan on April 1 after colliding with a Chinese military aircraft. It was disassembled and returned to the United States this week.

A State Department official, asking not to be identified, said Friday the expenses were exaggerated.

This came a day after Rear Adm. Craig Quigley, a Pentagon spokesman, said the administration was prepared to reimburse China for reasonable costs.

The costs were related mostly to support provided by the Chinese government and local businesses while a Lockheed Martin recovery crew was on Hainan.

The disassembled plane was flown to Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Georgia on Thursday.

Zhang Yuan Yuan, the spokesman at the Chinese Embassy, said he had no idea where the US$1 million figure came from. He said the two sides will hold talks to decide on an appropriate compensation figure.

A senior State Department official said the figure was based on a fax sent by Chinese officials to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. The fax was several pages long and contained an itemized list of the charges, he said.

The downing of the plane initially caused acrimony between the two countries but both have seemed eager in recent days for a more productive relationship.

Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage noted Friday that China has been more accommodating lately partly because it is interested in successful trips to China by Secretary of State Colin Powell later this month and by President George W. Bush in October.

As an example of Chinese cooperation, Armitage noted that Beijing has moved closer to the administration's position on a new system of "smart sanctions" for Iraq that would allow greater flows of civilian goods while tightening up military-related imports and smuggling.

Earlier, China had been aligning itself with Russia's opposition to the administration plan.

The Washington Post reported Friday that China softened its position after the United States dropped its objections to more than US$80 million in frozen Chinese business deals with Iraq.

"I don't think the Chinese are swayed by US$80 million," Armitage said, suggesting that China has higher priorities on its agenda.

In New York, China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Yingfan was asked about the newspaper's report.

"I don't think that that's a kind of trading off like that," he said. "We have our principles, and we have discussed with U.S., and on the basic items we finally agreed. Certainly, I think they have tried to meet with our concern about this."



  此兩件事表示美國、日本對中共不斷的無理警告與抗議,顯然無聊與無奈,是否代表民主的力量硬起來,讓我們祈禱吧!