Chapter 90
 
 
奧運會不會是中國人與台灣人的生離死別?


 


  呂副總統講了實話,她認為中共拿到奧運主辦權,並不代表台灣有七年的安全,由於中共派系鬥爭,解放軍的抗壓性太低,容易擦槍走火,故請中共能秉持奧運的精神,不要以武力攻台。以下是呂副總統的報導:

2001.07.14/中時蕃薯藤劉寶傑台北報導、邱慧君台北報導


呂秀蓮:主辦奧運又發動戰爭 有史例

  中共取得二○○八年的奧運主辦權,國內在野政黨都表達祝賀之意,但副總統呂秀蓮今天上午提醒國人,奧運的歷史上,不乏主辦國發動戰爭的例子,因此她呼籲國人不要一頭熱,如飛蛾撲火般,到時候就來不及了。

  呂秀蓮今天上午參加桃園一家商場的開幕儀式時表示,恭喜北京當局,期待中共能信守奧運「和平、公平與親善」的精神,讓兩岸攜手共創世界和平。

  呂秀蓮進而提醒國人,不要以為中共取得奧運主辦權就可以換得台灣的和平,如一九一六年,柏林取得主辦權,結果因發動戰爭,停辦奧運;一九三六年,也是由德國主辦,希特勒隨後發動戰爭;一九四○年,東京舉辦奧運也是處於戰爭狀態;一九八○年,莫斯科舉辦奧運,結果俄國入侵阿富汗。

  呂秀蓮表示,不要以為主辦奧運就不會發動戰爭,國人不要忘記大陸對台灣充滿不友善的企圖,台灣不要如飛蛾撲火般一頭栽進去,屆時後悔就來不及。

  民進黨上午則對中共表示祝賀之意,民進黨表示,中共申辦過程中,反映我政府對中共有相當善意,希望中國政府有所體認。

  民進黨期望中國政府以具體的善意行動,改變國際社會的看法。 

  北京申奧成功,聖火可能過境台灣,國策顧問翁松燃表示,這個聖火不會經過美國、英國、新加坡,卻經過台灣,只要聖火一過境台灣,台灣是中華人民共同國一部分的這一點,就很難解釋,我們的主權地位會被打折扣。

  政大國關中心副主任吳釗燮則認為,由目前到二零零八年間,台海兩岸發生戰爭的機率很低,因為大陸若對台使用武力或強力威嚇,會引起許多國家的反彈,造成舉辦奧運的困難。



  參考英文稿:

News from CNA in Taipei
Jul 14, 2001

ROC VICE PRESIDENT URGES BEIJING
TO STOP 'MILITARY MENACE'

Taipei, July 14 (CNA) Republic of China Vice President Annette Lu urged the Beijing leaders Saturday "to stop military belligerence and any hostilities against human rights" now that Beijing has won the right to host the 2008 Olympic Games.

Speaking at the inauguration of the "Taiwan Alliance for Global Peace," Lu said that Beijing's success in winning the right to host the games is "an honor to the Chinese people worldwide," but expressed her hope that Beijing will use peaceful means to resolve all kinds of disputes.

The alliance was formed under Lu's urging, with its main mission to "observe the glorious Olympian traditions of peace, kindness, justice, respect for human rights, as well as Participate in U.N.-sponsored world peace and cultural functions and activities in an effort to achieve world peace and prosperity."

In light of the increasing tension across the Taiwan Strait, the alliance stated that "all people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait, for the future of Taiwan as well as China, should join us hand in hand and step forward together with the world for peaceful co-existence and mutual respect."

It went on to say that "the world community should appeal to the Beijing government to embrace the Olympian spirit to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait and the world."

In line with the United Nation's activities of the "decade for the culture of world peace" (2001-2010), the alliance has decided to sponsor a rally in Taipei on Aug. 15 under the theme "Voice of Taiwan: Peace and Love."

Representatives from some U.N. non-governmental organizations and some Nobel Peace laureates will be invited to attend the rally. (By Victor Lai)

 


  中共會運用申奧成功的熱潮,加強對台統戰的工作,台灣的百姓若以為中共可以依靠,就必須研究中共的歷史,可由香港的一國兩制來說話。看報導:

2001.07.14/中央社記者歐俊麟倫敦十四日專電

泰晤士報指北京奧運可能政治化

  中泰晤士報今天表示,北京取得主辦奧運權後,中共內部的一些民族主義者可能會試圖把它政治化,將奧運變成宣達政治目標的工具。

  該報由北京發出的報導中預測,屆時中共的宣傳電影將可能出現奧運聖火繞過西藏的畫面。它說,中共無疑的將會利用奧運來強化它的主權要求。

  該報並引述華府一位中國人權觀察家曼恩說,毛澤東以帶領中國革命而留名,鄧小平以發起經濟改革,收回香港留名,江澤民將以主辦奧運作為他的功績。他說,在某種程度上,奧運將可以替代其他更為危險的宣洩民族主義情緒的方式,也可以用來取代類似收回台灣之類的功績。

  泰晤士報說,江澤民在過去八年裡一直在為爭取奧運下功夫,他在幾個月前並表明奧運是中共的最優先外交目標。他每到世界各地訪問,都帶著一樣的訊息:誰想和中共做生意就必須支持北京爭取奧運。報導表示,沒有支持北京的人,現在就要自問他們可能會得到什麼懲罰。

  報導並表示,傳言中共曾保證資助一些國家的基本建設,以換取他們的一票。它說,中共長期以來也一直在進行支票外交,說服開發中國家脫離台灣轉向北京。


  新黨到大陸找錢其琛會談兩岸的三制問題,陳水扁總統做了應該澄清的聲明,tiny黨絕不能出賣台灣主權,台灣的前途應該由台灣人民共同決定。


2001.07.14/中時電子報張瑞昌、王銘義/台北報導

回應錢七項 陳總統:一國兩制是要將台灣香港化

  陳水扁總統昨日接受國際媒體專訪時正式回應「一國兩制」主張。他表示,「一國兩制」是要將台灣「香港化」,就是你的制度、自由、人權都必須得到中共當局的同意才算數。這樣的「一國兩制」,絕大多數台灣人民都不能接受。陳總統強調,最近中共當局所謂的「一國兩制」,對台灣人民而言真的是「匪夷所思」。

  中共副總理錢其琛前天接見新黨訪問團,針對「一國兩制」模式提出七項具體內容。總統府昨日主動公佈陳總統接受媒體專訪中有關「一國兩制」的談話。在這篇專訪中,陳總統直指中共當局所謂「一國兩制」的內涵,再一次證明中共當局完全不了解兩千三百萬台灣人民真正的想法。

  陳總統認為,中共當局所謂「一國兩制」的言論,就好像你的鄰居有一天突然跑到你家裡來,很粗暴地說:「你的房子我要定了,但是我可以允許你們住在這裡,而且可以繼續使用部分的家具。」但很清楚地,這個家原本就是屬於我們的,並非鄰居的。

  陳總統接著說,鄰居對這個家沒有任何的貢獻,家具也不是他買的,而是我們一輩子奮鬥所得來的。結果,無理的鄰居卻說他要定了,而且我們能做什麼還要經過他們允許。這樣的說法,任何人都無法接受。

  陳總統強調,台灣的經濟成果和民主成就,與中共一點關係都沒有,更非中共所賜予,而是我們胼手胝足一點一滴打拚而來。台灣和香港不同,「一國兩制」是要將台灣「香港化」。

  陳總統表示,台灣人民可以透過民主程序選出自己的總統,香港的特首卻還要接受北京政府的欽點,甚至北京還可以隨時免除特首的職務。台灣人民有百分之百的言論自由和宗教自由,香港沒有,中共更沒有。

  行政院陸委會則發表聲明強調,中共當局仍然企圖以虛幻的「台灣人民當家做主」或「一國兩制就是維持現狀」的說法,故意掩蓋其消滅中華民國,將台灣貶為地方政府的意圖,而這才是絕大多數台灣人民反對「一國兩制」的真正理由。

  陸委會並呼籲中共當局,應更清楚地掌握台灣的主流民意,了解台灣人民的真正需要,尊重中華民國的存在、尊重我方由人民選出的政府,以及尊重台灣對未來前途的選擇。並儘早恢復兩岸間正式的對話與協商,為促成雙方關係的正常化做出實際的貢獻。


  全世界為中共歡呼是為了什麼?道理只有一個,就是期望中共能邁入民主大國,而不是以中國人為主的民族主義霸權,未來中共有些問題要面對,大家共同祈禱吧!

2001.07.14/中央社記者鍾行憲華盛頓十三日專電

分析稱中共取得奧運主辦權也有負面影響

  美國戰略預測公司指出,北京指望主辦二○○八年奧運來提高國際聲望並促進經濟投資,但是因此廣受矚目對中共政權或許也有負面影響:在使得異議分子和外國政府更加大膽的同時,限制它鎮壓社會與政治不安的能力。

  位於德州的這個網路智庫在最新全球情報分析中說,八年前,在世人對天安門廣場大屠殺的記憶猶新時,國際奧林匹克委員會越過中共遴選雪梨主辦二○○○年奧運。

  然而,中共取得二○○八年奧運主辦權將使世人更密切注意它對人權的尊重情況,迫使注意形象的北京政權限制它對內部社會動亂的鎮壓。但是中共的節制也許不會持久,因為中國大陸內部的異議分子和反中共政權的外國力量將會受到鼓舞向北京政權挑戰。

  戰略預測公司表示,為了準備面對此一注意,中共一直在對其安全武力進行更深入的結構改變。自去年中期以來,中共已成立鎮暴部隊,發展更有效而非致命的方法來對抗日增的示威和抗議。

  中共強調對鎮暴部隊施以特別訓練的必要,是為了避免訓練不良的部隊採取不當措施而升高衝突。

  中共政權也在去年底將北京警察的制服由軍隊採用的綠色改為藍色,試圖重新塑造公安的形象。

  然而,分析指出,這些努力並不反映中共政權對內部社會安定採取更溫和的立場,或是更加容忍反政府活動。相反的,北京甚至更加注意遏制社會動亂。中共政權已對貪污和組織犯罪進行一連串的鎮壓行動,並且將它認為威脅內部安定的宗教和種族團體列為目標。

  但是中共政權必須維持一個能夠吸引潛在的外國捐款人和投資人的形象。中共申奧的預算已有百分之六十是來自外國公司的捐助。

  只是中共政權對形象的日增關切將需要北京以比過去更微妙的手法來處理內部的社會動亂。例如,中共政權最近允許七名北韓難民離開中國大陸前往南韓,儘管北京曾與平壤簽署一項協定要將這些難民遣返北韓。

  分析又說,北京的節制將會鼓舞國內外勢力加快腳步詆毀中共政權或是爭取更多權利。這或許也會招致海外利益團體的更多壓力,並鼓勵中國大陸內部的反政府活動。

  戰略預測公司表示,反對運動不僅限於法輪功等著名的宗教團體或是民運分子,它還可能擴散到大陸社會的各個階層。從尋求更多知識或經濟自由的學術界人士和商人,到失業的工廠工人和不滿的農民,國際矚目的短期保護也許會克服他們對政府懲罰的畏懼。

  這些社會力量將會測試中共政權維持控制的能力及其對國內反對的容忍度。如果歷史足為借鏡,在受到放寬政治自由和改革的壓力下,北京的反應會是不顧國際輿論來確保它本身的權力。

  分析指出,正如天安門廣場大屠殺的例子,中共政權會為了保持形象而延緩報復到某種程度,但若反政府運動失去控制,此一節制就不可能會持久。

 


  全世界對中共取得奧運主辦權,皆有善意的期望,正面的說法乃希望中共能更開放、更民主,負面的說法認為會使國際人權問題受到忽略,而助長中共的民族意識,成為中共獨霸亞洲的局面。參考CNN報導:


Beijing Games win divides world opinion

July 14, 2001 Posted: 1:07 PM HKT (0507 GMT)
By staff and wire reports

BEIJING, China -- Beijing has won the right to stage the 2008 Olympic Games, recording a landslide victory in the face of worldwide concern on China's human rights record.

The Chinese capital prevailed on the second round of a secret International Olympic Committee ballot by receiving 56 votes, three more than the required majority and 34 votes ahead of second-placed Toronto.

As the estimated 200,000 revellers who had converged on Tiananmen Square awoke to face day one in the lead-up to the Games, reaction to the decision filtering in from around the world was mixed.

In the winning city, newspaper headlines matched the delirious mood of the population.

"Smiles Everywhere, Joy Ignites," blazed a headline in the Beijing Morning Post beneath a picture of a man spraying beer from a shaken bottle of beer.

"56 Votes -- A Beautiful Win," read another in reference to the city's comfortable win in the IOC's Moscow vote.

But Taiwan, whose independence China has threatened to quash with an invasion, greeted the decision very differently.

Optimism that peace between the two would be almost assured in lead-up to the Games was tainted by fears the Chinese victory could exacerbate growing nationalism on the mainland -- further fueling their determination to take Taiwan back to its fold.

"For the industrial and commercial sector, it's like buying an insurance policy that (China) will not invade Taiwan for seven years," the mass circulation United Daily News said.

Tibetans slam choice

In New Delhi, the Dalai Lama's Tibetan government-in-exile slammed the choice, saying it would encourage repression in China.

As Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama runs a government-in-exile from the Indian Himalayan foothills town of Dharamsala. He fled Tibet nine years after Chinese troops marched into their homeland in 1950.

"We deeply regret that Beijing is awarded the 2008 Olympic Games," spokesman for the India-based Central Tibetan Administration Kalon T.C. Tethong said in a statement.

"This will put the stamp of international approval on Beijing's human rights abuses and will encourage China to escalate its repression," he said.

The United States urged China to show a "modern" face when it hosts the Olympic Games in 2008 after it won its bid despite worldwide concern over its human rights record.

"The president believes that the Olympics are a sporting event, not a political event. But having said that, this now is an opportunity for China to showcase itself as a modern nation," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.

Europe divided

Human rights watchdog Amnesty International, refusing to either welcome or condemn the decision, urged China to improve its human rights policies.

"Considering the escalation in serious and widespread human rights violations over the past three years, the Chinese authorities have a long way to go to demonstrate a healthy and basic respect for human rights," Amnesty said in a press statement.

In Paris, President Jacques Chirac said he regretted Paris had failed in its bid -- but he made it clear that France had not given up hope of staging a future Games.

But there was sharper reaction to the decision.

Francois Loncle, the head of parliament's foreign affairs committee, saw parallels with the decision to hold the 1936 Olympics in Nazi Germany.

Beijing was celebrating well into the night Friday following the announcement
"The decision by the IOC goes towards justifying a repressive political system that each day flouts freedom and violates human rights," said Loncle, a member of French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin's Socialist party.

"Following the example of Nazi Germany in 1936 and the Soviet Union in 1980, Communist China will use (the games) as a powerful propaganda instrument destined to consolidate its hold on power," Loncle said in a statement.

In Germany, Interior Minister Otto Schily said the decision should help promote democracy in China. "I am convinced that the Olympic Games will have a positive effect on China's democratic development," he said in a statement.

Jiang goes public

Australia, casting an eye to the potential economic benefits of an Asia Pacific Games, was largely supportive of the Beijing bid,

Having helped orchestrate Sydney's two-vote victory over Beijing to stage the 2000 Olympics, Australia's IOC vice-president, Mr Kevan Gosper, said: "The majority of people will regard this as a good decision. Sometimes that requires some courage and we did that today."

Following the decision, Chinese President Jiang Zemin made an unannounced appearance and gave the exuberant crowd his "warmest congratulations."

"Comrades! We express our deep thanks to all our friends around the world and to the IOC for helping to make Beijing successful in its Olympic bid," Jiang shouted to the crowd.

"I hope the whole nation works hard along with residents of the capital city to stage successful 2008 Olympic Games. I also welcome our friends around the world to visit Beijing in 2008."

 


  英國The Times認為中共必須加強民主教育,以防在世界民主熱潮之下,中共的主控權會受到波折而反擊,故須防止中國民族主義的興起,而突然於奧運之後發動台海之戰。此種歷史先例,蘇聯之於1980年與德國之於1936,皆有其發動戰爭的經驗。

  奧運的成功於集權專制的國家,會成為國家意識大於人權意識的後果,中國人壓抑太久,會不會突然在信心百倍之迷惘中,發動武力攻台,亦引以為憂,何況居住在台灣哈共中國人,深得附共三昧,未來自命“鄉土的台灣人”,怎麼個死法都不知道。相信以台灣現階段經濟之自衰,加上處處有人唱衰,台灣民主的依恃力會越來越薄,而台灣人又不珍惜“民主自由”,相信不久會有極大的風暴。

  四佰年來台灣人的政治敏感度不高,對民主的了解甚低,又經過五十年國民黨大中國思想教育,台灣人想錢比想主權來得重,在一片迷糊於“一國兩制”“龍的傳人”“不哈共必亡”“錢七條”“江一中”的鼓吹聲響,所謂之“望春風”“丟丟銅”“補破網”反而成為異類之音。台灣人加油吧!參考老外說什麼:

 

Olympic win puts China on probation

SATURDAY JULY 14 2001
FROM JOHN GOODBODY AND GILES WHITTELL IN MOSCOW


BEIJING was handed the 2008 Olympic Games yesterday in a landslide vote that was swiftly condemned as an endorsement of China bleak record on human rights.

The vote by the 122-member International Olympic Committee, itself still reeling from corruption scandals, rejected strong bids from Paris and Toronto and in the process opened the way for a serious attempt by London to stage the 2012 summer games.

But the decision puts Beijing on notice that its approach to human rights will be closely watched over the next seven years. The Tibetan Government in exile said that the decision was an international stamp of approval for Beijing violations. Human Rights Watch, the New York-based watchdog, said that the vote "put a major burden on the IOC and the Games' corporate sponsors to make the Games a force for change in China"

IOC leaders have embraced the view that the Games will be a force for good. They point to the effect on Seoul in the run-up to the 1988 Games and dismiss accusations that changes will be mere window-dressing, as in Berlin in 1936.

Craig Reedie, the British IOC member, sided firmly with Beijing. "The Chinese said quite clearly that they wanted the Games to improve the quality of life of their people and society," he said. "In seven years we want to be able to say that we have brought about changes in China. I am confident that we have taken the right decision."

Had Paris won, a European venue for 2012 would have been highly unlikely. But yesterday attention immediately swung to what would be the third Games for London. Three failed British bids in the past decade-- two from Manchester and one from Birmingham-- have convinced the British Olympic Committee that London is the only British venue IOC members would consider seriously. Plans for a new Olympic complex centred on East London have won the backing of the Mayor Ken Livingstone as well as British Olympic officials.

The final decision on whether to mount a British bid "is with the Government at the moment and we are expecting a decision next year," Mr Reedie said in Moscow yesterday. "Two of the stakeholders (the British Olympic Committee and the City of London) are quite clear in their support and now arguably the most important stakeholder, the Government, is looking at it."

London has staged the Games twice before, in 1908 and 1948, and "is a long way from agreeing on a bid" for 2012, Mr Reedie cautioned. "If it gets as far as this part of the process there would have to be a very high quality presentation. There have been some very impressive bids for 2008."

Delighted Chinese officials posed for pictures after the vote and offered assurances that Beijing will work to end human rights abuses. They also promised unfettered freedom of speech and reporting during and up to the Games.

�L"Like all countries there are certain areas where there is something to be desired," Wuan Wei, the Chinese sports minister, said. "We hope that the Olympics will open us wider to the outside world and there will be reforms in a number of areas including health, economics, social activities, sport and human rights."

China's international critics bitterly attacked the decision, citing the execution of 1,800 people in the past three months alone, according to Amnesty International, and the routine suppression of Tibetan independence activists.

"Just as the Chinese Government has abused the spirit of sport through conducting executions and sentencing rallies in athletic stadiums, so they will also use the economic and publicity benefits of hosting the Olympics to prop up their corrupt regime," said former political prisoner Harry Wu.

The US Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos, added: "It truly boggles the mind that the IOC has awarded the 2008 Olympic Games to Beijing."

In France, after Paris's defeat, Francois Loncle, of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, condemned the IOC for helping to justify "a repressive political system that each day flouts freedom and violates human rights".

Taiwanese politicians were quick to congratulate Beijing, but also to use the occasion to urge China to stop its war games aimed at intimidating Taipei into joining the mainland. "We hope the Chinese communists can renounce the use of force in the Taiwan Strait," a government spokesman said.

The issue was raised only delicately by rival cities in the four days of IOC meetings leading up to the vote, but before it a German delegate extracted a promise from Beijing to move the volleyball tournament from Tiananmen Square, where it was scheduled to take place, if China won. Hundreds of pro-democracy activists were crushed by armoured vehicles and gunned down in the square in 1989. With TV rights to broadcast the Olympics already negotiated until 2012 Beijing is entitled to an advance payment of some £ 430 million thanks to an IOC rule that the host city receives half the Games' TV revenues. China is also expected to pump £7 to £14 billion into bringing its water, power and communications networks up to scratch.