US defense
expert warns of airborne threat from China
2001.12.21
The Taipei Times
CNA, WASHINGTON
The Chinese air force could overwhelm a single
carrier's defenses if that is all the US could send to aid Taiwan
in the event of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait, a US expert
on Chinese military developments warned in a recently published
article.
Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation,
a Washington-based think tank, wrote in the most recent issue
of Jamestown's China Brief that it is therefore "correct"
for the Pentagon to call for an increased US military presence
in the western Pacific region in its September 2001 Quadrennial
Review.
By 2005, Fisher wrote, the People's Liberation Army Air Force
(PLAAF) will pose a much more formidable threat to Taiwan itself
and to US forces in Asia. It could effectively destroy Taiwan's
defenses in a large pre-emptive strike when coordinated with
massive missile strikes, he added.
"Ongoing PLAAF modernization makes necessary appropriate
US measures to ensure the deterrence of conflict in the Taiwan
Strait," Fisher wrote, because without "countervailing
actions by Taiwan and the US, by 2005 the PLA Air Force could
begin to gain superiority" in the Taiwan Strait.
Fisher wrote that according to newspaper reports, the PLAAF
sent its new Sukhoi Su-30MKK fighter jets out to the mid-line
of the Taiwan Strait in early November, perhaps to intimidate
Taiwan before the nation's Dec. 1 legislative elections.
He went on to write that it is important to watch the PLAAF
because, though a short-range ballistic missile might carry
only a 450kg warhead, a strike fighter such as the Russian-made
Su-30MKK can carry about 7,700kg on each mission.
"A war's outcome will depend
on the PLA's ability to secure and exploit effective air superiority
in the Taiwan theater of operations," he wrote.
Fisher attributed the drive behind the PLAAF's modernization
to the growing political consensus among Beijing's leaders to
"build a modern PLA capable of playing a key role in forcing
unification with Taiwan under Beijing's terms."
Quoting recent reports, Fisher wrote
that the PLAAF could acquire between 300 and 400 modern multi-role
fighters by 2005 that are capable of all-weather attack missions
with modern precision-guided weapons. These aircraft could include
100 Su-30MKKs and hundreds of indigenously built Chengdu J-10
fighters, he added.
In terms of airborne forces, Fisher quoted reports suggesting
that China's 15th Airborne Army might be substantially expanded
to a force that exceeds 50,000 men.
"The danger is that such a force could prove instrumental
in either scaring Taiwan into submission or, if used correctly,
could deliver the final blow needed to force Taiwan's surrender,"
Fisher wrote.
