March 27, 2000 --- Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Madeleine Korbel Albright, Trent Lott, Denny Hastert, Walter Schwimmer, Hans Christian Kruger
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Transitions to democracy are often messy. But Taiwan has successfully made the jump, as voters dumped the KMT after a half century of uninterrupted rule. Now President-elect Chen Shui-bian, who was once jailed for his opposition activities, must exhibit the same political dexterity internationally in order to avoid war with China.

Taiwan has been separate from the mainland for a century, but Beijing’s demand of reunification has been growing increasingly shrill. Six days before the election Premier Zhu Rongji warned Taiwanese voters not to elect Chen, whose DPP once advocated formal independence. The PRC, Zhu explained, was willing to “shed blood.”

Chinese President Jiang Zemin responded to Chen’s victory by offering to talk, but only with a Taiwanese leader who believed in “one China.” Chen’s aides speak hopefully that he, like Richard Nixon, can find an opening with the PRC.

Unfortunately, the possibility of miscalculation remains high. Jiang and Zhu may be reasonable men, but nationalism sometimes causes reasonable men to do unreasonable things.

They might use Taiwan as a unifying force in the face of economic and political instability. Or their enemies might use Taiwan against them.

Washington’s policy actually makes Taipei more willing to play international chicken. Private conversations with Taiwanese officials indicate that they believe the US would act if Taiwan was threatened. Many Chen voters seemed to share this sentiment. One teacher told the Washington Times: “Beijing will not resort to force carelessly (because) the US is the world police.”

Yet Beijing takes Washington’s threats far less seriously. Incred-ulous Chinese officials consider Taiwan to be an internal affair and cannot understand the US’ willingness to meddle.

Would Washington really risk Los Angeles to protect Taipei, they ask? It’s a good question, but if Beijing guesses wrong it could find itself at war with the US.　

To encourage peace in the Strait, Washington should first decide to stay out of any shooting war and make that clear to Taipei. Taiwan can adopt any international strategy that it desires, but it should not expect an US rescue. Indeed, a recent NewsMaz.com/Zogby poll found that more than two-thirds of people in the US opposed defending Taiwan.

Equally important, Washington should loosen its definition of defensive weapons available to Taiwan. Although Beijing is presently incapable of mounting an invasion, it is expanding its navy and missile bases near Taiwan.

Taiwan should be allowed to buy any weapon that it deems necessary to deter China from attempting.

The administration has been reluctant to act out of fear of offending Beijing, but that’s no excuse for leaving Taiwan ill-equipped to defend itself. David Shambaugh of George Washington University warns that weapons sales would “accelerate the growing cross-strait arms race,” but China is already racing for a long time.

Beijing recently announced a 12.7 percent hike in military outlays. China is seeking to eliminate Taipei’s technological edge; last month it took delivery of its latest Russian-built destroyer armed with nuclear-capable missiles.

Allowing Taiwan to develop a deterrent force is the single most important step to deter conflict. Unlike Washington’s implicit defense guarantee, Taipei’s threat to resist would be credible. And a China that could not count on an easy victory would be much less likely to risk war.　

Taiwan, resplendently successful economically is now the proud progenitor of the second successive presidential election in which power was transferred without violence. This is a first in 5,000 years of Chinese history, voter sent an unmistakable message that the people were sovereign, not the heretofore all-powerful Kumingtang (or KMT), which has ruled since the Chinese civil war of 1949.

So voters rejected the party of President Lee Teng-hui, despite his historic profile as the island’s first elected leader, because he was at the very top of the KMT behemoth that had become encrusted with five decades of arrant cronyism and complacent corruption. Middle-class voter said, “We’re made as hell and we’re not going to take it any more.”

As U.S. envoy Lee Hamilton said (March 24, 2000) that he was impressed by president-elect Chen Shui-bian’s “prudent positive” statements on relations with rival mainland China.

“I have been impressed by President-elect Chen’s prudent, positive statements on cross-strait relations since the election,” the former Democratic congressman told reporter shortly before he left Taiwan. He did not elaborate and declined to take questions.

Hamilton concluded a three-day visit to Taiwan following a flurry of U.S. diplomatic activity after Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party, which espouses independence from mainland China, won last Saturday’s presidential elections and sparked fears of worsening tensions with Beijing.

Because the United States has no diplomatic links with Taiwan, Hamilton was not a formal envoy, but political analysts say he was sounding out Chen on Washington’s behalf.

“After I return to Washington, I will share my views and what I have learned with the president and his senior advisers as well as my friends in Congress,” Hamilton said.

We hope Mr. Hamilton will give a clear message to you over new President Chen’s wishes.