US needs China to deal with Pyongyang's ire

Beijing doesn't want the two enemies to get along, and the US doesn't want to deal with N Korea without a witness

AFP , PHNOM PENH

Whether North Korea can be persuaded to abandon its nuclear ambitions and accept US demands for multilateral dialogue depends largely on China, analysts and officials said Thursday.

Asia's only regional meeting where North Korea is a participant wound up Thursday with little progress on the North Korean nuclear issue, but officials said one hopeful sign emerged: China seems more willing to help.

"China is doing much more than before. It's very obvious," said a high-ranking South Korean foreign ministry official dealing with the North Korean issue.

"Before they didn't do very much. They said they didn't have much influence over North Korea, which is a lie," the official who requested anonymity said.

Pyongyang and Washington have been in an eight-month standoff over Washington's charges that Pyongyang was developing nuclear weapons, with the issue threatening peace on the Korean peninsula and Asia.

China's offer

This week on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), China indicated more strongly than before that it was willing to forge talks between the US and North Korea that would include South Korea and Japan -- something that Washington insisted on having and Pyongyang has objected to.

The move, though subtly presented by Beijing, is nonetheless a significant shift in China's position, the official said.

"China realized the danger of North Korea having nuclear weapons is real and China understands the [George W.] Bush administration's strong position, which is totally different from the Clinton administration's position and after Sept. 11 it changed even more," the official said.

Multilateral talks -- rather than bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang or trilateral talks that would include China -- are crucial, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo insist.

Avoiding mistakes

The US does not want to repeat the mistake it made in 1994 by striking a two-way agreement with Pyongyang in which the Stalinist regime agreed not to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for fuel aid, the official said.

Washington said it discovered in October Pyongyang had a nuclear program, and stopped further aid.

"When many parties are involved, they can be witnesses to what North Korea says. It will make it a little harder for North Korea to lie," the official said.

Experts say China holds the key to convincing Pyongyang to agree to such a multilateral format, but Beijing has a tough balancing act.

Beijing wants a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, but at the same time does not wish to see improved relations between the Koreas and between North Korea and the US as this would lessen Chinese influence on the Korean Peninsula, according to the experts.

Beijing's desires

"To China, if the US and North Korea can talk amicably, that's not good for China. China doesn't want the two of them to fight too hard, but it doesn't want them not to fight either," said Hong Kong-based China expert Wu Guoguang.

Beijing is cooperating with the US because it stands to gain and has gained a lot, including US willingness not to criticize China's human rights record at the UN Human Rights Commission meeting this year -- which has been an annual major embarrassment for China, said Wu, from the Chinese University.

It's debatable, however, how much influence China has over Pyongyang.

A donor's leverage

China -- the largest donor of fuel and food aid to North Korea -- has a lot of leverage over the North, South Koreans and Americans believe.

In March, Beijing stopped providing fuel to the North for three days, blaming the interruption on a technical problem in a fuel pipeline.

"It was quite a shock to North Korea. We guessed it involved China trying to send some signal to North Korea. Only naive people think it was an accident," the official said.

"Maybe they can have another fuel cut," he said. "Maybe there's some way for China to send a stronger signal thereby changing North Korea's attitude."

Following that incident, Pyongyang agreed to hold trilateral talks with the US and China in April.

But the official warned: "Too much pressure will stimulate North Korea to move in a bad direction. Too little pressure, they will not change at all."

Wu, however, argued China's influence is not as strong as people think, even though it is the "only hope" because its Pyongyang's strongest ally.

"Pyongyang doesn't trust Beijing. It knows Beijing is using its influence with Pyongyang to gain bargaining power with the US. So Pyongyang will use Beijing and the US to increase its bargaining power with both countries," he said.

Let's not go the way of Hong Kong

July 1 will be the seventh anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to Chinese rule. Hong Kong has been going downhill since the handover. The economic slump has recently been compounded by the SARS epidemic imported from Guangdong Province.

What's more, the territory's freedoms and the rule of law are in danger. The recent dispute over anti-subversion legislation has prompted protests from Hong Kong democrats and caused anxiety among Chinese democracy advocates. Even the US has openly expressed concern over the matter.

Article 23 of Hong Kong's Basic Law stipulates: "The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People's Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organizations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organizations or bodies of the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organizations or bodies."

This article is aimed at taking Hong Kong from "one country, two systems" to "one country, one system."

During the post-handover honeymoon, horse races went on as usual, people danced as usual and the annual demonstrations commemorating the June 4 Tiananmen massacre went on as usual. The Falun Gong movement also remained active in Hong Kong, even though it was banned in China.

But Hong Kong's relative freedom and the "two systems" environment quickly became an annoyance to Beijing. China has been thinking about how to bring Hong Kong into one system. The Hong Kong government's national security bill, if enacted, will severely curb the rights of its people. Once the bill is passed, "one country, two systems" will cease to exist entirely.

The rule of law has been crumbling in Hong Kong since the handover. The political system is already undemocratic. Once the national security bill is passed, it will seriously affect freedom in a vast number of areas -- thought, religion, press, speech, cultural creativity, information, academic research and assembly. The law will fundamentally change Hong Kong society. Any legislation aimed at fulfilling the mandate of Article 23 will introduce authoritarian China's ideology into Hong Kong's legal system and seriously weaken the freedoms and rights the people of Hong Kong have long enjoyed. It will also undermine the legal basis for "one country, two systems" and damage Hong Kong's international image.

"One country, two systems" was a sales pitch aimed at Taiwan -- to make unification with China appear more attractive. Since Hong Kong's handover, however, Taiwanese are simply not interested in becoming a "special administrative region" ruled by a government hand-picked and controlled by Beijing. Because "one country, two systems" has failed to win over Taiwanese, the proposal has lost its purpose and China's government has no reason to continue to extend freedoms and rights to Hong Kong's people.

Some people here believe Taiwan should consider accepting the "one China" principle. In light of how Beijing has treated Hong Kong, once Taiwan accepts being a part of China, Beijing will no longer need to hold up Hong Kong as a showcase. Hong Kong's importance will fall and Taiwanese will also become second-class citizens under "one country, one system."

Some politicians in Taiwan are promoting a "one China" consensus and fantasizing about participating in international organizations under a "one China roof." As a result, PFP Legislator Kao Ming-chien became a tool of Beijing for denigrating Taiwan's status at the SARS conference in Kuala Lumpur. In light of Hong Kong's past glory and its dismal future, "one country, two systems" is a losing proposition.

Chien meets with Dick Cheney at US think-tank forum

CNA , BEAVER CREEK, COLORADO

Minister of Foreign Affairs Eugene Chien met with US Vice President Dick Cheney in private on Sunday on the sidelines of the 22nd American Enterprise Institute (AEI) World Forum in Beaver Creek, Colorado.

Chien confirmed that the meeting took place, but would not divulge any details regarding his talks with Cheney out of respect for his host and the sensitivity of the meeting.

Informed sources said Chien discussed Taiwan-US relations with Cheney and other matters of mutual concern. Taiwan Repres-entative to the US Chen Chien-jen was also present at the meeting.

Chien had already met Cheney during the past three days on several occasions, but they had only shaken hands and chatted informally on those encounters.

Also, Chien held bilateral talks with US Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and government leaders of other countries on a broad range of issues of mutual interest.

Chin Jih-hsin, director of the North American Affairs Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who was also attending the World Forum, said Chien has reaffirmed Taiwan's support for the global war on terrorism and reconstruction projects in Iraq and Afghanistan while meeting with US officials and congressional leaders.

This was the first time that Chien has attended the annual AEI World Forum since he assumed office in February last year. Chien said the meeting was fruitful and that he was delighted to see the ROC national flag hoisted along with those of other participating countries on major streets of Beaver Creek -- a popular mountain resort in Colorado -- and at the conference venue.

Chien left for New York on Sunday afternoon for his first visit there since assuming office. Sources said Chien will take advantage of the visit to seek US support for Taiwan's plan to hold a referendum on some public issues such as participation in the World Health Assembly and the fate of the nation's controversial Fourth Nuclear Power Plant.

Chien will tell American authorities that the planned referendum is mainly designed for citizens to express their opinions about selected policy issues which have nothing to do with Taiwan's future status, the sources said, adding that Chien is expected to assure the White House that the planned referendum will not violate President Chen Shui-bian's promise in his inaugural speech that there would be no promotion in a referendum on whether Taiwan should move toward independence or unification with China.

According to Chien, Douglas Paal, director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) , expressed the US government's concern at a June 16 meeting with him and at a farewell party held a week earlier for the outgoing AIT Taipei deputy director.

Chien said the US government is worried that the situation might get out of control if Taiwan calls for an unprecedented referendum, which would probably have an adverse effect on cross-Taiwan Strait relations.

We trust Chen on plebiscite pledge, US institute says

DIPLOMATIC STANCE: The American Institute in Taiwan commented for the first time on the US' position on Taiwan holding referendums

By Monique Chu and Ko Shu-ling

STAFF REPORTERS

The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) spoke out for the first time over the US' position on national referendums, saying it would take the president on his word that he won't hold a plebiscite on the question of independence or unification.

"President Chen Shui-bian said in his inauguration speech on May 20, 2000, he would not promote a referendum to change the status quo in regards to the question of independence or unification," said AIT spokesperson Judith Mudd-Krijgelman.

"We appreciate President Chen's pledge, and we take it seriously," Mudd-Krijgelman said.

The AIT spokesperson declined to comment on or confirm reports that the AIT Director Douglas Paal had expressed Washington's reservations on holding referendums in Taiwan during a recent meeting with the president.

Premier Yu Shyi-kun yesterday said while there is no legal basis for the government to hold a referendum, the Cabinet is drafting an administrative decree to allow the government to do so.

"As soon as the legislature passes a referendum law, the measure would automatically be nullified," Yu said.

Since it is the consensus of both the ruling and opposition parties to hold a referendum on public policies and issues regarding people's livelihoods, Yu said, the Cabinet is obliged to propose such a measure, which has to be constitutional and not violate any existing laws.

"It's a basic human right and democratic norm to be able to hold a referendum," Yu said. "As Taiwan is a democratic country, there's no reason for us to be afraid of holding one."

As for when the government will hold a referendum, Yu said that the Cabinet will listen to the opinions of all parties.

"We won't come to a decision on whether to hold a referendum until we negotiate with all political parties, and of course, it also depends on when the ruling and opposition parities agree on the issues of the referendum," he said.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman Richard Shih said the ministry would continue communications with the US so as to avoid any "misunderstanding" on the part of the US over the planned advisory referendums.

"What has been planned is not a referendum on the question of unification or independence. Instead, it's a referendum on public policy issues," Shih said.

Shih declined to clarify whether it would be the top priority for Minister of Foreign Affairs Eugene Chien to have the government's stance on the issue raised with the US administration during his ongoing visit to the US.