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CROSS-STRAIT TIES: A US deputy assistant secretary of state told a committee that the foundation had been laid to carry out a Taiwan-China dialogue

The George W. Bush administration hopes that statements made by President Chen Shui-bian in his inaugural address, plus some recent comments from Beijing, will form the basis of an eventual dialogue between Taipei and China that could lead to some sort of a settlement of cross-strait differences, a senior State Department official said in Washington on Thursday.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Randall Schriver made that comment as he testified before a congressional panel on the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Beijing.

"We hope that [Chen's] message -- especially on Taiwan's willingness to engage across-the-board on cross-Strait issues, not excluding any possible formula for creating an environment based on `peaceful development and freedom of choice' -- will be greeted positively by the PRC and taken as a basis for dialogue, which can lead to the peaceful resolution of outstanding differences," Schriver said in printed testimony prepared for his appearance at the hearing.

Schriver also pointed to China's May 17 statement as containing positive elements. That statement threatened Taiwan with destruction by military force if Chen pursues policies China does not like, but also offered economic and political benefits to Taiwan if Chen is willing to negotiate, albeit on the basis of the "one-China" principle.

Despite the bellicose parts of the statement, "there may be some constructive elements on which the two sides can build," Schriver said at the hearing, which was held by the Congressional-Executive Committee on China, which was set up under the law that granted China permanent most-favored-nation trade status in advance of its accession to the WTO.

In response to questions from Representative Jim Leach, who headed the unofficial US delegation to Chen's inauguration, Schriver said that both sides have made concessions in their attitudes toward the possible renewal of cross-strait dialogue, Chen in his inaugural address and China in its May 17 statement.

There is "much work ahead," Schriver said, but both sides were "moving in the right direction," and he expressed the hope that China would take advantage of Chen's remarks to move the possibility of renewed talks forward.

Schriver's testimony fits in with a new emphasis in Washington on trying to jump-start efforts toward the renewal of talks between the two sides.

With Washington having had a strong hand in the drafting, and maybe final wording, of Chen's speech, the administration may have seen the speech as a way of satisfying those who have been pressing the US to play a greater role in promoting cross-Strait talks.

"We hope that [Chen's] message ... will be greeted positively by the PRC and taken as a basis for dialogue."

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Randall Schriver

It is still unclear how Beijing will respond. Recent US news reports have said that a power struggle is raging in Beijing as former president Jiang Zemin tries to reassert his hard-line power at the possible expense of president Hu Jintao and prime minister Wen Jiabao, both of whom are seen as moderates and reformers.

The dispute, according to the reports, could likely crimp the style of Hu if he seeks a more accommodating attitude toward Taiwan.

Schriver said that while it is difficult to pierce the "opaque" shroud around Chinese politics, "there is ample evidence" that a struggle is going on.

That struggle, he said, "may make it more difficult for new leaders to be risk-takers" in forging new policies toward such areas as Taiwan relations. The struggle "places some limitation on their moves," he said.

Two policemen run to stop a protester in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on the 15th anniversary of a bloody military crackdown on democracy protesters yesterday. At least 13 people were detained in the square yesterday, the anniversary of the June 4, 1989 military assault in which hundreds died when troops shot their way through city streets to end seven weeks of pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square.

Police swamped Tiananmen Square yesterday, keeping dissent at bay on the 15th anniversary of the bloody pro-democracy crackdown as survivors and their families privately mourned the hundreds who died.

With the event remaining highly sensitive to the ruling Chinese Communist Party, few, if any, commemorations were taking place to mark the day when hundreds, if not thousands, of protesters were killed by Chinese troops.

On the vast square yesterday, police vans criss-crossed constantly to maintain order, while on majestic Changan Avenue -- the main route used by tanks and soldiers in 1989 -- uniformed People's Armed Police and undercover teams were out in force.

All traces of the bullet holes and tanks tracks that scarred the area have long since been erased.

One wheelchair-bound man dared to protest, wearing a headband with a slogan on it.

He managed to unveil and hold up a slip of paper before security forces pounced and took him away, a news photographer witnessed.

A group of middle-aged men and women, meanwhile, were seen being processed in the courtyard of the Tiananmen Square police station where detainees are first taken, although why they were there was not clear.

While few in the capital dare to publicly commemorate the massacre, an estimated 60,000 people were expected to gather in Hong Kong to light candles in memory of those who died.

In Washington, many of the student leaders of the 1989 protests who now live in exile in the US held their own memorial in front of the Chinese embassy.

The only candles being lit in Beijing are behind closed doors, and even then it is far from safe.

"They threatened to take me away if I lit a candle," Hu Jia, a leading Tiananmen and AIDS activist, told reporters from his Beijing home where he is under house arrest.

In the lead-up to the anniversary, China's secretive state security police have placed known dissidents under house arrest and even forced some from their homes to hotels outside the Chinese capital.

Universities, meanwhile, were being monitored by a state security police task force to prevent commemorations taking place, academics said.

"The Chinese government is trying to wipe out the memory of Tiananmen Square, but the horror of what happened still resonates inside and outside China," said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch.

"We don't even know exactly who died in the massacre. The Chinese authorities need to punish those responsible, compensate the victims, and allow those who fled the country to return home."

Qi Zhiyong, who lost his leg when he was run over by an armored personnel carrier on the night of June 4, said he was marking the event in his own way.

"My heart feels very grieved. Democracy has eluded us for such a long time," he told reporters.

"Democracy is the goal of freedom and Chinese people all strive for freedom. Today I will mourn for those that lost their lives 15 years ago and I will mourn with those mothers, fathers and relatives that have lost family."

Many people in Beijing are too scared to talk about those fateful events, while others have moved on and are more concerned with jobs and money in a country where economic reforms have rapidly transformed lives.

"The police came to warn to me and told me not to leave my home and not to invite friends to the house," Zhou Duo, a former economics professor at Peking University who took part in the 1989 demonstrations, told reporters.

"But this year, like every year on June 4, I will make a hunger strike during the day."

The Chinese leadership has shown no sign of changing its position on the crackdown, defending its actions this week as necessary for economic growth and China's emergence on the world stage.

State media, which are banned from using the phrase "liusi," or June 4, predictably made no mention of the anniversary.

"This is still a taboo subject," China specialist Joseph Cheng from City University in Hong Kong said.

"This can be very controversial and this can create a lot of divisions within the leadership. That's why the subject must be suppressed, must be hidden from the public," Cheng said.

Angered by China's hard line against democracy in Hong Kong, an estimated 60,000 people waved candles, sang and chanted yesterday night to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the bloody Tiananmen Square crackdown in Beijing.

"Hong Kong should be democratic," university student Rocker Tsui said at an annual vigil that was highly charged by the recent bitter dispute over the territory's political future. "Hong Kong people should be ruling Hong Kong ourselves."

"The people's republic should be for the people, not for killing the people," said a woman who identified herself only by the surname Pau at yesterday night's rally in a sprawling downtown park. A monument was set up that said: "Democracy's heroes stand forever."

"I wish we had a choice," said teacher Pat Sy. "Democracy is good for people. It's more important than the economy."

The Tiananmen Square vigil attracted numerous ordinary citizens, elderly people and young couples who brought small children so they could teach them about China's crackdown.

People waved banners yesterday night demanding that China reverse its official explanation of Tiananmen Square by admitting mistakes.

"This year it's important for people to show they will not be silenced," said Law Yuk-kai, director of the Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor, a non-governmental organization.

WAR GAMES: The council responded after Beijing said pro-Chen businesses were not welcome there, and that it will fight for control of the Taiwan Strait
REUTERS , TAIPEI
Seeking to reassure investors spooked by the prickly cross-strait situation, the Mainland Affairs Council said yesterday that Beijing will only hurt itself if it imposes economic sanctions against Tai-wanese investments in China.

The comments came after Chinese state media said busi-nesses that support President Chen Shui-bian were not welcome there.

Reports that Beijing will engage in war games in the Taiwan Strait this month helped to push share prices down 3.5 percent on Thursday. The TAIEX yesterday rebounded by 0.94 percent.

"Economic sanctions will hurt others as well as itself. It will have a huge impact on the Chinese economy," Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Chiu Tai-san told a news conference.

More than 50,000 Taiwanese companies have helped to create some 10 million jobs in China, he said.

China would show its readiness for war with Taiwan in military games in the Taiwan Strait over the coming weeks, the Communist Party-backed Global Times newspaper said yesterday.

About 18,000 People's Liberation Army troops would take part in exercises to establish air superiority on Dongshan island, some 150 nautical miles west of Penghu, it said.

The troops on Dongshan would come from the Nanjing Military Region, where China has deployed 500 missiles at Taiwan, it said.

While China has often held exercises on Dongshan island, these maneuvers would be the first of their kind, it said.

Their mission was "to fight for control of the air over the Taiwan Strait," it said.

Guided missile brigades, ground troops, warships and submarines would take part, it said. Russian SU-27 fighters armed with air-to-surface missiles would back up tanks going ashore.

The newspaper cited reports saying the drills might be held toward the middle of this month.

An operator at the Overseas Chinese Hotel on Dongshan island said that China had ordered fishermen out of the waters used for the drill a month earlier than usual.

"They hold military exercises here every year from July to September," she said. "They usually ban fishing at sea from July 1, but this year, it is banned from June 1."

Despite the political tensions, Taiwanese companies have invested an estimated US$100 billion in China since the late 1980s, moving much of its manufacturing sector to take advantage of cheaper labor.

Chiu condemned a suggestion by a Chinese academic that Beijing could punish China-based Taiwanese businesses that support Chen.

"We urge Beijing to restrain these irresponsible scholars and clarify their remarks when necessary," he said.

The stock market fell 5.1 percent on May 17, after China criticized Chen's leanings toward independence.

The Chinese Communist Party's main newspaper, the People's Daily, said on Monday that China did not welcome businessmen who supported Taiwanese independence and singled out a prominent tycoon, Hsu Wen-lung of the Chi Mei Group.

The Chi Mei Group owns computer screen maker Chi Mei Optoelectronics, whose shares fell further to end down 1.77 percent at NT$55.50 despite the market rebound.

To shore up confidence, the government urged stock investors to exercise reason and focus on solid economic and corporate fundamentals rather than on rumors.

The Ministry of National Defense said it saw no signs of unusual military activity by China, adding that it was normal for China to hold military drills from May to August.

The Taiwanese army held a small routine training drill and test-fired some artillery on the offshore island of Penghu on Thursday.

RESOLVE: The VP vowed to stick to her itinerary despite medical warnings that her busy schedule had aggravated trauma resulting from the attempt on her life
STAFF WRITER , WITH CNA

Vice President Annette Lu, with her arm in a sling, yesterday agreed to use a walking stick to prevent worsening her injuries during her visit to Costa Rica.

After briefly checking into a hospital in San Jose yesterday due to pain in her limbs, Vice President Annette Lu insisted that the itinerary of her official visit to Costa Rica will not be affected.

Lu arrived in Costa Rica on Wednesday after a three-day official visit to neighboring El Salvador, where she attended the inauguration of new Salvadoran President Elias Antonio Saca on behalf of President Chen Shui-bian.

Her Taiwanese doctor, Chen Yao-chang, said the vice president has been suffering from muscle strain in her left arm and a slight dislocation of her left thumb and elbow, in addition to the bullet wound in her left knee sustained in the March 19 assassination attempt on her and the president.

Chen Yao-chang said the injuries had been aggravated by the vice president's busy schedule over the past week in the US and Central America.

Lu refused to use a wheelchair or even a walking stick over the past several days to avoid creating a "negative image" for Taiwan.

Despite her protests, Chen Yao-chang put the vice president's arm in a sling on Wednesday and advised her to use a walking stick to prevent further aggravation of her injuries.

Following her original itinerary, Lu visited the Poas Volcano National Park in a suburb of San Jose on Thursday morning and attended a luncheon at the Hotel Fiesta hosted by Taiwan's ambassador to Costa Rica, Wu Tzu-dan.

On Wednesday, Lu received a human rights award from the University of Costa Rica in recognition of her contributions to promoting democracy and human rights over the past decades.

She met with Costa Rican President Abel Pacheco de la Espriella around noon on Wednesday. Pacheco expressed his gratitude for Taiwan's longstanding assistance to Costa Rica's national development. He assured Lu of his country's continued support for Taiwan, including its bid to join the UN and other major international organizations.

Later that day, Lu visited the Costa Rican National Assembly, where she attended a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Costa Rica. The two countries signed an amity agreement in 1944 on forging "lasting peace and friendship."

In response to questions from reporters about recent reports that Taiwan's monetary aid to Costa Rica had been used to pay the salaries of Costa Rican foreign ministry officials, Lu said monetary aid to Taiwan's diplomatic allies should continue despite these false allegations. She said extending monetary aid to diplomatic allies is part of national policy as one of the means of consolidating bilateral ties.

Meanwhile, Lu said, the Legislature has a duty to tighten its supervision of the country's diplomatic expenses.

She suggested that legislators pay more visits to the country's diplomatic allies to examine how and where the money has been used, instead of going to countries that maintain no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

CNA , WASHINGTON
Prominent Tiananmen student leader Wang Dan brushed off on Thursday an accusation by Beijing that he is a "Taiwan spy" as an old tactic which he "had long become used to" and which was not worthy of a response.

Wang said that from the first day he took part in pro-democracy activities in China, the Beijing regime had used insults and defamatory language in an attempt to discredit him.

Wang said he was not interested in wasting time answering the accusation. Instead, he quoted former US president Abraham Lincoln: "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time."

Wang, who is now working on a doctoral degree at Harvard University, said that Beijing's attacks on him had not changed his affection for Taiwan, and that he would never pass up the opportunity to co-operate with people who support the ideals which he and young democracy activists from all over China share.

Wang said, however, that he and Wu'er Kaixi -- another student activist who has had close links with Taiwan since the 1989 massacre -- would be pleased to co-operate with people outside of China if no conditions were placed on the relationship and as long as those people were not intelligence agents.

Wang and Wu'er were attending a memorial and a press conference held in Washington, DC, on Thursday marking the 15th anniversary of the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square Massacre.

Wang and Wu'er said they would be willing to return to China as long as no conditions were placed on them.

Wu'er said his parents were getting old but the Beijing authorities had refused them permission to leave the country to visit him. Nor had the authorities allowed him to return to Beijing to see them.

Saying that returning to one's home country is a citizen's basic right, Wu'er called on the international community to exert greater pressure on the Beijing authorities so that dissidents living overseas could return home.

Wang, founder of the Chinese Constitutional Reform Association in the US, said China should not focus on economic development at the expense of human rights.

"We want to remind China that if they want to be a powerful country, they will have to follow international rules. And the most basic rule is to respect human rights," Wang said at the press conference.

Wang, 35, has been to Taiwan many times since he first visited the country on March 18, 1999. He visited Taiwan twice last year.

He was in Taipei in January last year to launch two new books, one a collection of poems and the other a work of prose. Both are published by Locus Publishing in Taipei.

Wang said at the time that he preferred to call himself a poet, adding that "literature is what enables me to survive."

He was in Taipei again last July for six weeks at the invitation of the Taipei City Government as an artist-in-residence.

Wang was jailed in July 1989 for his role in the Tiananmen pro-democracy demonstrations and was released in February 1993. He was arrested again in October 1996 and sentenced to an 11-year prison term.

In April 1998, he was released on parole on medical grounds and allowed to travel to the US for treatment -- a move that effectively sent him into exile.

China has come up with a new tactic in its battle to achieve unification with Taiwan. Besides voicing threats and military posturing, China has recently targeted pro-independence and pro-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) business people operating in China. When China singled out the Chi Mei Corporation , the world's largest manufacturer of the plastic raw material ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene), alarms started ringing for many other enterprises and individuals who support the DPP, for they fear similarly being swept up in the political storm.

The stock exchange has taken a sharp dive in recent days. Rising oil prices and a possible increase in US interest rates have doubtless contributed to this, but many people believe this slump's main cause is analysts' speculations incessantly disseminated over the Internet that China will impose further economic sanctions. There is also the news of China's military exercises around Dongshan Island and Taiwan's live-fire maneuvers in Penghu. These routine exercises have been played up by the media into a military standoff that could explode into war at any moment.

Taiwan and China have a high degree of commercial interdependence, with China accounting for almost 30 percent of Taiwan's total exports, so it is no surprise that China should use commerce to achieve its political goals by using economic sanctions to pressure Taiwan's businesses. But because there is such a high degree of commercial interdependence, Chinese sanctions against Taiwanese businesses or actions that block Taiwan's trade will exact a toll on China's own economic development.

Even if China did impose economic sanctions on Taiwan, their effects would be limited. Because Chi Mei Optoelectronics and other companies are multinational corporations, Taiwan's exports to China largely consist of intermediate raw materials that China itself requires -- and that it purchases from Taiwan. Even if China turned to other countries for these products, it would find a shortage on world markets that Taiwan is in a position to fill. Furthermore, much of Taiwan's exports to China are re-exported and not sold on the Chinese market. Not only do Taiwan's businesspeople provide job opportunities and tax revenues for China, they also contribute to China's economic growth. If China restricts their investments or creates problems for them, China will pay the cost of such policies.

The Chi Mei incident has raised the international business community's awareness of the political dangers of investing in China. By enforcing economic sanctions against Taiwan's businesses, China will persuade those businesses and others to transfer their investments to Southeast Asia. This retrogressive policy clashes with the business practices of democratic countries and with the spirit of free trade represented by the WTO, and could seriously damage China's economy, and both Taiwan and China will lose.

Despite Taiwan businesses' solid revenues, the stock market has still slumped due to lack of investor confidence. The slightest rumors are enough to cause a panic-stricken fall in the market. When China's remarks are supported by other politicians, scholars and businesses and disseminated by mass media, they serve as an extremely powerful weapon. The Taiwan stock market has been affected by such remarks, and now that the Chinese know how effective this method is, they will continue to use economic threats against Taiwan. To prevent repeated market crashes, the government should release accurate information and the public should build up its own confidence. Taiwan, which has developed under the shadow of China's threats, is a society with a strong sense of impending crisis. Although it is very sensitive to its environment, it is also exceptionally adaptable, and while it might panic momentarily, it will soon adapt to the new situation.

By Lu Shih-xiang
The new Presidential Office, Executive Yuan and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) teams started their work on May 20. This new administration that vows to "unite Taiwan, stabilize cross-strait relations, seek social harmony, and reinvigorate the economy" will bear the responsibility of "paving the way for a sustainable Taiwan," as the title of President Chen Shui-bian's inauguration speech proposed.

When the administration took office, what received the most attention from all sides was certainly Chen's speech, especially the issues of constitutional reform and cross-strait relations. Before the speech, Chen faced various pressures from both foreign and domestic political forces. But with a pragmatic and responsible attitude, the lawyer-turned-president told the world his policy goals toward building a sustainable nation. The speech generally won US approval and deprived China of any excuse to attack. Even the sensitive stock market responded positively to his speech.

Some of the administrative goals may take a long time to produce the desired results, such as Taiwan's constitutional reform, while others are the present progressive tense, such as cross-strait relations. China's Taiwan Affairs Office issued a statement on cross-strait relations three days before Chen's inauguration, emphasizing its "five nevers" under the precondition of "one China," while proposing "seven suggestions" for exchanges between the two sides. Therefore, cross-strait relations, especially the cross-strait economic and trade exchanges that have been going on for more than 20 years, are surely the administration's most pressing concerns. Thus Taiwan's challenge is to appropriately deal with the opportunities and risks presented by its close business integration with China.

In terms of Taiwan's opportunities, the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping carried out "reforms and openness" in the late 1970s. This has turned China into the world's sixth-largest economy, which accounts for about 3.9 percent of the world's annual productivity.

Over the past five years in particular -- in contrast to economic downturns in the US, Europe, and Japan -- the Chinese economic boom brought by massive investments (including foreign investment) has become a major force maintaining global economic productivity. Calculations based on purchasing power parity (PPP) even suggest that China lies behind 25 percent of global GDP growth.

Indeed, Taiwan has benefited from the rapidly growing Chinese economy, thanks to the flexibility of its enterprises, its geographic advantage and the fact that both Taiwan and China employ a "vertical division of labor" and are often complementary to each other. The positive effects of China's economic development are also quite obvious in its other East Asian neighbors, such as Japan and South Korea as well as Singapore and other ASEAN member states.

Yet economic affairs can never be viewed from a single aspect: profits are always accompanied by side effects.

In late April, Beijing announced its intention to take "macroeconomic control measures" to reduce investment, commodity prices and bank loans through forceful administrative methods. This policy has caused panic in neighboring Asian countries.

Essentially, the Chinese economy has been overheated by excessive investment, not excessive demand. For the latter, commodity prices go up when supply is unable to meet demand. For the former, perhaps price increases are not particularly serious as both supply and demand increase. But excessive production capacity or supply will inevitably cause profit reduction, enterprise bankruptcies and nonperforming bank loans.

In other words, if China does not find ways to cool down its economic growth rate, which is as high as 9 percent at the moment, it will surely face a "hard landing," or even a repeat of the 1994-95 collapse of the investment bubble that could cause deflation and an equipment surplus.

The Chinese government is focusing on macroeconomic control measures, but as a country whose socialist economy is not yet transformed into a market economy, the policy tools it can use are somewhat restricted. The appreciation of the Chinese yuan is an effective tool, but Beijing is unwilling to appreciate enough to damage its exports, nor is it willing to lose face under foreign pressure.

An interest rate hike is also a common way for a nation to cool down its economy. But in China, where the government controls almost half the economy -- including the blind investments by state-owned enterprises and local governments -- the effectiveness of restraining excessive investment by raising costs is also limited.

In addition to currency policies, fiscal policies are also commonly used macroeconomic control measures. However, China's fiscal policies are unable to aid its economy due to financial difficulties in recent years. This is why Beijing so far has merely proposed administrative measures to increase the deposit reserve ratio and scrap investment loans.

Although many view the new policy as "causing short-term pain for long-term gain" because an economic cooldown is necessary, whether these policies will prove appropriate and harmless is still unclear.

Hence the negative impacts of China's macroeconomic control policies have pushed Taiwan to consider how to reduce China's economic influence, and have given it an opportunity for change. At a time when China's economy is growing rapidly, chaotically and unstably, China's risk of economic fluctuations, its banking sector's bad loans, its uneven income distribution and potential political and social unrest pose serious risks to Taiwan.

Cross-strait business relations can hardly be free of political and economic interference. As Chen stressed in his speech, a democratic Taiwan has no hostility toward China, and its democratic and open attitude does not rule out cross-strait development in any form. In comparison, the Beijing government often threatens Taiwan and has set up many preconditions for cross-strait relations, has deployed ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan and has reduced Taiwan's international space.

Under such hostile and tyrannical Chinese policies, cross-strait exchanges -- including the opening of the "three links" -- are just tools being used to oppress Taiwan to force its surrender.

To be blunt, the biggest obstacle to mutual interest and reciprocity in cross-strait exchanges is China, which does not renounce the use of force and lacks the magnanimity of a leading power. Since Chen has expressed his goodwill, this is an opportunity for Beijing to respond with concrete action, so that the two sides can move toward positive interactions.

Facing the two-edged sword of the rising Chinese economy, Taiwan must resist a magnification effect to avoid the "cavitization" of its industry, so as to reduce China's negative impact on its economy. On the other hand, it must improve its competitiveness so as to ensure the leading role of its own industry. More fundamentally, it should not put most of its investments only in China's basket. As for any nation in the global economy, its international business arrangements should not focus solely on one other nation, much less one with a hostile agenda.

Consider some Asian examples. India has a population of about 1 billion and is strong in computer software development, which should be able to complement Taiwan's computer hardware development. Meanwhile, both Indonesia and Vietnam may be advantageous locations for the international expansion of Taiwanese enterprises.

In this regard, the new administration has had a good beginning. On his first working day, Council for Economic Planning and Development Chairman Hu Sheng-cheng stressed that Taiwan's exports to China (Hong Kong included) account for 36 percent of its total exports today, and its investments in China account for 75 percent of total investments. He therefore reminded Taiwanese enterprises that they could become China's "economic hostages." Minister of Economic Affairs Ho Mei-yueh also has said that cross-strait business issues go far beyond opening the three links, and that direct links cannot be realized by Taiwan's wishful thinking.

With such a clear and definite stance, future cross-strait business exchanges should be based on former president Lee Teng-hui's famous saying "with the people always in my heart." If government leaders are aware of mainstream opinion, they can avoid entanglement with vested interests and serve Taiwan's overall interests.

As for mainstream opinion, surveys conducted by the Mainland Affairs Council show that about two-thirds of the public believe that the government should consider both the national security and direct links with China. They also believe that Taiwan should tighten its rules on Chinese investments, rather than loosen them further.

Lu Shih-xiang is chief executive officer of the Foundation for the Advancement of Media Excellence.

MIRACLES HAPPEN: A DPP conference marking the Tiananmen Square Massacre expressed hope that China could look at Taiwan as a role model
By Chang Yun-ping
STAFF REPORTER
On the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre, academics and officials yesterday said Taiwan could serve as a role model for China's democratization.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) yesterday held a seminar to mark the anniversary of the ill-fated, pro-democracy demonstrations, during which participants encouraged China's democratic movement to continue moving forward.

Ruan Ming, a visiting professor at Tamkang University and a former special assistant to Hu Yaobang , the late general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), said yesterday that Taiwan's situation was a unique example of political change in the wake of the "third wave" of global democratization and that its experiences would shed significant light on democratization in China.

Quoting US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia James Kelly's remarks that Taiwan was a democratic model not only for Asia but also the world, Ruan said the nation's democratic experience was particularly influential in the case of China because the two countries had both experienced Leninist autocratic rule.

"As long as [Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin's] factions are fighting with one another, they will not risk changing cross-strait policy. They can only adopt a hardline stance out of fear of instability."

Lin Wen-cheng, former senior advisor to the National Security Council

"The KMT and the CCP were basically twins in the communist world. Taiwan, once under KMT dictatorship, has evolved from a Leninist party-state into the present democracy due to the rise of a social democratic movement. That makes Taiwan a unique democratic model and we hope to see similar changes in China in the future," Ruan said.

Ruan said he was optimistic regarding the fourth-generation Chinese leadership of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao who, compared with former president Jiang Zemin , were more open regarding the future direction of China.

Although the new leadership's priority was the economy, Ruan said the need for sustainable economic development underlined the need to avoid significant cross-strait tension for another two decades.

"Hu Jintao has a plan to `build a prosperous society in a comprehensive way' by 2020, and the priority for the Chinese citizenry remains economic stability. Until China reaches that goal, therefore, it can't afford to wage war against Taiwan. It will rely heavily on Taiwanese investment in China, especially from those [firms] like the Chi Mei Group," Ruan said.

Chi Mei Group figurehead Hsu Wen-lung was recently censured by China as an unwelcome Taiwanese businessman over his pro-independence stance.

Ruan urged stepped-up efforts in accelerating cross-strait exchanges, a move which would contribute to the liberalization of Chinese society.

However, Lin Wen-cheng, a former senior advisor to the National Security Council, expressed pessimism in relation to the current Chinese leadership.

He said there was no sign that the CCP's political grip was loosening, which many regard to be a precondition for the beginning of top-down democratization.

"As long as these two factions are fighting with one another, they will not risk changing cross-strait policy. They can only adopt a hardline stance out of fear of instability," Lin said.

Lin also predicted that China would not express any goodwill to Taiwan until after December's legislative elections because China was still hoping that the pan-blue alliance can retain its majority.

DPP Deputy Secretary-General Lee Ying-yuan yesterday called for more support for China's democratic movement.

Recently, two US congressmen suggested that Taiwan send marines to Iraq. Morally, Taiwan should respond positively to this request. Taiwan's military is well trained and equipped with US hardware, and the commanders are generally proficient in English, so they should be able to work efficiently with US troops in Iraq. Taiwan has been involved in humanitarian aid to various smaller countries for many years, and it makes sense to also extend her helping hands to the Iraqi people.

But Taiwan does not have any official relations with the US, nor with Iraq. The Taiwan Security Act offers the only framework within which Taiwan and the US maintain communications, but this does not include any other countries. In addition, since Taiwan is not a UN member, there is no legal basis for participating in a peacekeeping mission. It is obvious that there are no diplomatic grounds for Taiwan sending troops anywhere in the world.

This dilemma illustrates why the US' support of the "one China" policy is doomed. It is in the US' interest that Taiwan should be an independent country.

For the sake of peace and stability in Asia and for the benefit of everyone, especially for China, Taiwan should be an independent country. Instead of building up its military might, China will be able to concentrate on improving the living standards of her people and many people around the world.

Of course, the people in Taiwan must strive hard to attain this goal. The US has an obligation as well as the means to speed up this process by recognizing the country and sending an ambassador to Taiwan. By failing to recognize Taiwan's independence, the US is isolating one of Asia's most important democratic nations diplomatically and economically, adding to international confusion over Taiwan's sovereignty.