Ready for war on Oct 01, 2004

China's party chief tells army to be ready for war
AGENCIES , BEIJING
 

Chinese Communist Party chief President Hu Jintao has urged the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for a military struggle, but stopped short of singling out Taiwan as the target.

Many security analysts see the Taiwan Strait as the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has threatened to attack if the democratic nation of 23 million people declares independence.

Hu, who assumed the role of military chief less than two weeks ago, told the 2.5-million-strong PLA to "seize the moment and do a good job of preparing for a military struggle," the People's Daily and the Liberation Army Daily said yesterday.

Hu did not say against whom the struggle might be fought.

Hu also urged the PLA, the world's biggest army, to "comprehensively revolutionize, modernize and standardize," the reports said. No details were given.

Meanwhile, Premier Wen Jiabao used a National Day address yesterday to warn Taiwan against seeking independence and insisted that unification would be realized "in the end."

"We will continue to follow the basic policy of peaceful reunification ... firmly oppose and contain the separatist forces in Taiwan and unswervingly safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Wen said.

"The sacred goal of complete national reunification must be achieved. It shall be achieved in the end," he said, receiving a lengthy round of applause.

Beijing would "firmly oppose and contain the separatist forces in Taiwan and unswervingly safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Wen said in a speech to the top leadership and hundreds of guests gathered at Beijing's Great Hall of the People to mark today's 55th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

He said that in seeking peaceful unification with Taiwan, China would continue to insist on the "one country, two systems" formula that was used when taking back Hong Kong and Macau.

’Small three links’ Key for peace talks with Beijing

No `balance of terror' in the works, MND says

STRATEGY: Defense Minister Lee Jye said that there are no plans to develop a strategy of total war in an effort to thwart a military invasion from China

By Lin Chieh-yu
STAFF REPORTER
 

Minister of National Defense Lee Jye yesterday stressed that the military has no policy of adopting a "Cold War-style `balance of terror'" to counter China's military threats. This phrase was used by Premier Yu Shyi-kun last week.

"The premier never discussed his thoughts with me, and the MND has never developed such an idea," Lee said when answering legislators' questions during the National Defense Committee meeting in the Legislative Yuan.

"Taiwan will not fight a war with China unless China launches a military action first," Lee said, adding that the military's long-term strategy of "effective deterrence and resolute defense" remains unchanged.

Yu made his "Cold War-style" strategy comments last Saturday in response to an anti-government arms procurement budget protest on the same day.

"The best scenario will see a `balance of terror' being maintained across the Taiwan Strait so that national security is safeguarded," Yu said.

"If you fire 100 missiles at me, I should be able to fire at least 50 at you. If you launch an attack on ... Kaohsiung, I should be able to launch a counterattack on Shanghai."

Yu's controversial remarks immediately aroused serious concerns from both Taiwanese politicians and the international community.

Opposition lawmakers therefore focused on the issue yesterday to ask Lee Jye whether or not the military changed its doctrine to adopt an "active defense" strategy, such as the premier's idea of attacking Shanghai with ballistic missiles.

Lee denied that the military has listed any city or particular target in China for a missile strike, but he admitted that the doctrine of "firing 500 missiles back if the enemy launches 1,000 to attack our country" is part of the military's strategy of deterring China's military action.

"There are Taiwanese businessmen and foreigners in Shanghai, so, even if there is an event of hostilities breaking out between the two sides of the Strait, Taiwan will not target densely populated areas in China, but will focus only on military targets," Lee said.

Lawmaker also questioned whether Yu's remark meant that Taiwan has the capability of developing mid-range surface-to-surface missiles which could be used to strike China's coastal and interior areas. Lee didn't deny it and just said that the question covers the country's classified military information, "I can not comment."

Meanwhile, Lee told lawmakers that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed about 600 short-range ballistic missiles within striking distance of Taiwan, a number which is likely to increase to over 800 before the end of 2006.

"If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA could launch five waves of extensive strikes lasting 10 hours," he said. "They may also fire 200-odd cruise missiles from bases 1,000 miles [1,600km] away from Taiwan to attack the nation's key targets."

Lee urged the Legislative Yuan to approve the government's NT$610 billion arms procurement budget.

"Given missile defensive capabilities, we are hardly able to cope with the threat," he said.

He said that in accordance with the MND's evaluation, the arms deal, including Patriot III anti-missile batteries, 12 P-3C maritime patrol aircraft and eight diesel-electric submarines, can effectively ensure 30 years of peace in the Taiwan Strait.

"Actually, we also need AEGIS-equipped destroyers, which cost NT$40 billion each, for self-defense," Lee said, adding that the US government has not yet agreed to selling the ships.

China is the real threat

The recent controversies over Premier Yu Shyi-kun's talk last Saturday about Taiwan striking Shanghai with missiles in the event of an attack against Taiwan by China is a classical case of words taken out of context by the media. It is truly puzzling how those who depict Yu's comment as being provocative and hostile can overlook the fact that Yu was only talking about a scenario in which Taiwan was forced to react to a missile attack by China and fend off further such attacks.

It is imperative to point out that Yu made the statement in the face of a rally by about 1,000 people organized by the pan-blue opposition against the government's arms procurements from the US. The statement was meant to help explain the need for the arms purchases in an easy-to-understand manner. Yu said that in order to maintain the security of Taiwan, if China is capable of destroying Taiwan, Taiwan also needs to maintain that kind of capability against China, so that "in the event [China] hits [Taiwan] with 100 missiles, then [Taiwan] should at least be able to strike back with 50 missiles; if [China] hits Taipei and Kaohsiung, then [Taiwan] should be able to strike Shanghai in return."

Yu was simply talking about maintaining a degree of counterstrike ability in order to deter one's enemy from launching an attack, rather than Taiwan taking the initiative and attacking Shanghai for no reason. Yu's point was that maintaining that kind of capability can help avert war all together, and in order to maintain that ability, Taiwan needs to make the arms purchases. Yu's comments are also consistent with the existing national defense strategy of Taiwan, which is "effective prevention [of war], and steady self-defense."

While some people may not like Yu's bluntness, he pointed out something that the general public in China, which continues to overwhelmingly support unification, should keep in mind: in the event that their government tries to impose unification through the use of military might, the Chinese people might be the one paying a hefty price in the lives of their sons and daughters in the event of a cross-strait conflict. For decades, the Chinese government has been brainwashing its people about the importance of "unifying" with Taiwan -- even through military adventurism -- as part of its campaign to harness the blind nationalism of the masses and maintain the security of the corrupt and bloodthirsty authoritarian regime in Beijing. If the Chinese people can be taught to see things from an alternative perspective, then perhaps there might be a change in China's policy toward Taiwan one day.

Another question that needs to be faced is this: If a counterattack is out of question, then aside from keeping one's fingers crossed praying that US aid would arrive in time, how can Taiwan respond to a missile attack by the Chinese? Perhaps what the pan-blues want is to surrender immediately, and then organize a reception banquet? Otherwise, it is hard to understand their opposition to the special arms budget.

Ironically, on Wednesday, the spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office Li Weiyi called Yu's speech "a provocation and calling for war," and described the arms purchase as suggestive of Taiwan's intention to "seek independence through the use of military force." But Yu was simply talking about a way to avoid war and the arms purchase is for defensive arms only.

If China did not cast the dark shadow of military conquest over Taiwan; and if China did not have hundreds of missile targeting Taiwan; there would be no need for the arms purchase, and Yu would not have to defend this need in such a manner.

As the biggest threat to not only cross-strait peace, but also regional peace, it is laughable to hear Beijing accuse others other of being provocative and hostile.