Lien’s stupidity on Nov 22, 2004

Chen's `soft coup' claim a part of DPP campaigning

TACTICS: Although the president's coup claims remain unsubstantiated, the accusation was useful in directing attention to issues favorable to the DPP, analysts say
By Huang Tai-lin
STAFF REPORTER

President Chen Shui-bian's recent claim that the pan-blue initiated a "soft coup" has not only triggered a political shockwave across party-lines, it also strategically landed the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the offensive, dominating discussion in the run-up to next month's legislative elections.

With the legislative elections just 19 days away, the "soft coup" topic has captured the media spotlight. The campaign strategy of the DPP is becoming apparent as it seeks to highlighting the lack of democratic credentials displayed by the pan-blue camp after losing the March 20 presidential election.

"Talk of the soft coup deepens the public's impression of the chaotic launched by the pan-blue camp after the presidential election," political commentator Yang Hsien-hung said.

Yang was referring to the series of protests staged by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) in the wake of the March 20 presidential election, held mostly outside the Presidential Office, as well as attacks on police led by several pan-blue legislators and their supporters. Pan-blue protesters also used rocks, sticks and bricks as they tried to break into a local district court and the Central Election Commission office.

During a Nov. 14 campaign stop, Chen alleged that several high-ranking and retired military officers had attempted to persuade other military officials to either resign or take sick leave in an attempt to shake troop morale and further stir up post-presidential election social upheaval.

Fortunately, the "coup" failed thanks to the successful depoliticization of the nation's armed forces, according to Chen.

"By directing the public to remember images of the turmoil caused by the pan-blue camp after the election, the pan-green camp is appealing to voters to end such disorder by using their votes," Yang said.

Yang's observation was in line with remarks made by many DPP officials.

"The pan-green camp is making an appeal for voter support so we can achieve our goal of winning a majority in the new legislature and secure greater progress in reform," DPP Information and Culture Department Director Cheng Wen-tsan said.

In line with its campaign strategy, the DPP's first TV campaign spot, launched last week, attempted to convey the message the the pan-blue camp lacks a democratic spirit.

The TV ad, with its soccer game setting, delineated how "team blue" kept on contesting the referee's ruling that "team green" had won the game. The commercial is effective in conveying the message of the pan-blue camp's lack of sportsmanship.

Since last month, the DPP set out on four campaign tours, each led by DPP Secretary-General Chang Chun-hsiung, Premier Yu Shyi-kun, Presidential Office Secretary-General Su Tseng-chang and Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh. According to DPP officials, the tours had thus far not only achieved positive results in opinion polls, but also helped convey to the public the image of unity in the pan-green camp.

Debuting his own campaign tour two weeks ago while stumping for DPP legislative candidates, Chen had high expectations of himself, DPP officials said.

Campaigning under the slogan of "Ensuring peace and winning happiness," Chen is slated to attend at least 42 rallies nationwide in all 27 constituencies in the run-up to the legislative elections, according to DPP officials.

DPP Deputy Secretary-General Chung Chia-pin explained the differences between the four campaign groups and the one led by Chen.

While the four campaign groups are mainly focussing on attacking weaknesses within the pan-blue camp, such as the KMT's stolen party assets and the alliance's opposition to the government's proposed NT$610.8 billion (US$18 billion) arms procurement budget. Chen's campaign tour, on the other hand aims to convey the pan-green camp's messages in a bid to win voter support.

"To meet the expectation of those who long for stability and progress, [Chen's campaign message] will communicate to the voters a happy, hopeful and positive vision for the future," Chung said.

For instance, when Chen's campaign trail took him to Tainan County, Chen pledged that once the pan-green camp gains a majority legislature, the first priority will be to pass the Disposition of Assets Improperly Obtained by Political Parties Law.

The money obtained by recovering assets stolen by the KMT during its 50-year rule will be used to pay for students' textbooks, Chen said.

Chen also said that the legislature will set up truth investigation committees to look into past injustices, such as the 228 Massacre in 1947, the Kaohsiung Incident and unresolved cases from the White Terror era.

When he made a campaign stop in Changhua and Taichung counties, Chen also pledged to pass the National Pension Law should the pan-greens win a majority in the legislature. The passage of the law will allow senior citizens aged 65 or older to receive a monthly pension of NT$7,500, Chen said.

Legislation governing the Resolution Trust Cooperation would be the new legislature's priority to help advance the nation's economic development, Chen added.

While the pace of election campaigning seemed to go according to the pan-green camp's script, one unexpected incident occurred when Examination Yuan president Yao Chia-wen and Examination Yuan member Lin Yu-ti, said that while Sun Yat-sen was worthy of respect, they did not support his title as the nation's founding father.

Their rhetoric stemmed from the debate over the revision of the high school history textbook and caused uproar in the political arena.

Seeking to cool the controversy which had detracted from the DPP's main campaign message, Chen had quickly played down the controversy

Chen's subsequent accusation of a "soft coup" had calmed the negative impact brought by the debate over who's the nation's founding father and re-directed the party's campaign massage back to its designed theme of terminating the social disorder stirred by Lien and Soong.

By highlighting the pan-blue camp's image of instability, it is in part also the DPP's goal to break the myth championed by the pan-blue camp that "a pan-blue majority in the Legislature Yuan can efficiently check the ruling party," Chung said, adding that doing so could also boost the pan-green camp's electoral outlook as it may discourage pan-blue supporters from voting.

"The main message that the pan-green camp is aiming to promote among voters is to let them know that gaining a pan-green legislative majority would help move Taiwan away from the past four years of bitter conflict with the opposition parties and allow the government to secure greater progress and reform as it frees itself from quagmire and gridlock," said Cheng.

Chen spelled out the party's main theme in his address at the National Party Congress held in July.

"The past four years proves that, under the current constitutional government system, when the president is elected by the people and the majority of parliament belongs to opposing political parties, the entire government is nearly paralyzed and is unable to be effective," Chen said in his speech.

Editorial:Chen can't rely on Lien's stupidity

Lien Chan's  behavior over the weekend illustrates quite vividly why large swathes of the population now call him Lien Dai or "Lien the stupid." On Saturday he challenged Chen Shui-bian  to hold a referendum on Taiwan's independence "if he had the guts." Quite the language of the football terraces, isn't it: "Come and have a go, if you think you're hard enough." But can anybody actually make sense of Lien's challenge?

Lien appears to think that since Chen is so keen on independence, if he "had the guts" he would hold a referendum on it. What nonsense. Nobody wants a referendum on this topic and to do so might even spark war with China. So Lien is basically advocating a policy which could lead to war, just to show off his machismo.

Lien has once again demonstrated the total incoherence of his thinking. After all, Chen promised not to hold a referendum on this topic. So Lien is criticizing Chen for keeping his promise. He has also managed to give Chen an excellent opportunity to point out the current limits of the Referendum Law. The kind of topic proposed by Lien is specifically deemed by the law as being ineligible to be put to a vote. It is not a matter of "guts," but the law.

Not that Lien bothers much about the law any more -- and why should he? For four years his party has been conspiring with China to sell out Taiwan. Since March he has been involved in trying to overthrow the nation's democracy through both civil and military insurrection. Men have been labeled traitors and hanged for doing much less than Lien. If Chen "had the guts," he would prosecute Lien for treason.

But perhaps it's rather like having a mad beggar who hangs around making a nuisance of himself in your lane. You know quite well that a little intimidation will get him to clear off, but his condition is so wretched that you feel to use such tactics would make yourself contemptible.

But obviously for Chen there are more than moral considerations here. Lien is the best possible reason anyone could have to not vote for the pan-blues. If there are any wavering voters out there, all they have to do is look at the absolutely shambolic poltroon, incapable of logical or even rational thought, whose "leadership" has produced the vacuum that is the KMT's election strategy -- and whose denial of reality shows a clear need for serious psychological help.

Lien's antics can only help the pan-greens. But what does not help them are Chen's own. Last week he accused the pan-blues of trying to arrange a "soft coup." Those who have been identified, or identified themselves as the ringleaders of this alleged coup attempt have categorically denied that any such thing took place. Chen has said he has iron-clad evidence, but has not revealed any of it. By not doing so he risks being castigated for making the same groundless allegations that have always been a speciality of the pan-blues.

Those who believe that Chen has the goods have rationalized the wait over the last week by saying that Chen has been leading the blues further and further into denial so he can utterly destroy their credibility when he does release the evidence. We would like to believe this is true.

But we are worried. If Chen is waiting for the pan-blues to dig their own grave, then surely they have dug deep enough. This accusation is not just stupidity akin to the pan-blues' "bulletgate" nonsense. It calls into question something fundamental: whether the opposition is prepared to play by the rules of constitutional government. We need to see Chen's evidence and we need to see it now.

'Identity problem' is not political

By Hsu Yung-ming

Taiwan has a high level of consensus on the nation's independent and sovereign status. According to a survey published by the Taiwan Thinktank on Nov. 8 about the public's expectations of the US after President George W. Bush's re-election, more than 70 percent of people regard Taiwan as a sovereign and independent nation. Only 15 percent of people disagreed.

Cross-referencing those results by party membership indicates that support for Taiwan as an independent and sovereign country cuts across the political spectrum. Most people, regardless of their political affiliation, believe in it.

Since Taiwan's presidential election this year, people have said that Taiwan has a problem of political identity. But, according to this survey, as many as 62 percent of people agree with the sentiments expressed in President Chen Shui-bian's Double Ten National Day speech in which he said that "Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC) and the ROC is Taiwan."

Only 20 percent disagreed. This indicates that there may be a need to correct the conventional wisdom about Taiwan's "identity problem." The nation's identity problem may not be based on recognition of Taiwan's sovereignty, but rather on differences between various classes and political parties. Based on another cross-referencing of figures, more than half of respondents agreed with this theory, also regardless of their political affiliation.

Prior to Chen's Oct. 10 speech, there were actually discussions within the KMT about whether to use the formulation that "Taiwan is the ROC and the ROC is Taiwan" as a platform for the party's next phase of development.

It is a pity that the Central Standing Committee of the KMT did not adopt it. The survey can remind political parties and political figures that Taiwanese people's attitude to Taiwan sovereignty is maturing, that a stable consensus is being developed and that it is not dependant on political affiliation.

The spokesman of China's Taiwan Affairs Office criticized Taiwan by claiming that the formulation "Taiwan is the ROC; the ROC is Taiwan" is a channel for seeking Taiwan's independence. But, the survey shows Taiwanese people do not see it this way.

The survey shows that 57 percent of people think that this formulation is a description of Taiwan's current situation, 24 percent do not know due to their unfamiliarity with the issue, and 18 percent believe that it is a proposition of Taiwan's independence. When we said that Taiwan's identity crisis is in the past, we assumed that Taiwan and the ROC are two conflicting political symbols. But Taiwanese people have a substantial acceptance of the consolidation of these two concepts.

People used to believe that this formulation was simply a platform of one or another political party, but this survey indicates that the understanding of the Taiwanese people has changed. They now believe that this is a description of Taiwan's current situation, and this is an opinion that transcends political factions and educational background.

According to the same survey, 57 percent of people regard themselves as Taiwanese, close to 20 percent think they are both Taiwanese and Chinese, and only 14 percent think they are Chinese. Such findings conform to a long-term trend in which the proportion of people who identify themselves as Taiwanese is increasing.

While members of the pan-blue and pan-green camps still believe that there are political conflicts and contradictions on the issue of Taiwan's sovereignty, the people of Taiwan are steadily advancing to a resolution.

When the survey asked respondents which political party was best able to safeguard Taiwan's sovereignty, 28 percent thought that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would do better than other party. This result could be due to the DPP's clear and long standing position on sovereignty, and may also be because the DPP is the ruling party.

The KMT took second place with 13 percent. By cross-referencing the results, we see that supporters of a political party will generally believe their party will do much better in defending Taiwan's sovereignty. But People First Party (PFP) partisans actually believe that the KMT will do better.

This is an important warning for the PFP, for if they doubt their own party's ability on the sovereignty issue, they may start to shift their support to the KMT.

What is worth pondering for all political parties is that 56 percent of those polled still do not have an opinion on which party can better guard Taiwan's sovereignty. Therefore, I want to remind each party in the upcoming legislative elections to not only focus on mobilizing voters, but also propose a concrete strategy to preserve Taiwan's sovereignty.

Meanwhile, more than half of the public believes that a national referendum may be an effective tool on the sovereignty issue. That people do not trust the political parties, but rather put their faith in a national referendum is an interesting phenomenon and one that politicians should pay close attention to.

That such distrust exists should serve as a crucial element in the next developmental phase of each political party.

On the level of international politics, the US and China may think that as long as they can take care of Taiwan's political leaders, the issue of Taiwan's sovereignty can be resolved. But from this survey, we see that Taiwanese people may have a strong desire to want to express their opinion via a national referendum, and may not totally believe in any political party.

Taiwan's sovereignty issue will not to be resolved by consultations among elites, and this is an important message that the international community must recognize.

Hsu Yung-ming is an assistant research fellow of Sun Yat-sen Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy at Academia Sinica.