US says it has evidence of biological weapons

AP AND REUTERS, WASHINGTON

“Particularly in a post-9/11 world in which there exists a very real threat of weapons of mass destruction being used as weapons of terror, it is vital that the international community take all steps necessary to end noncompliance.”－US State Department report on biological weapons programs

A US State Department report released on Tuesday says evidence indicates that Russia, Iran, North Korea and Syria continue to maintain biological weapons (BW) programs.

The report said China maintains "some elements" of an offensive biological weapons program.

The study said US government experts were divided on whether Cuba is trying to develop a capability of using the weapons.

All six countries had been linked previously in varying degrees to BW programs.

The study, mandated by Congress, assesses compliance by    foreign countries with arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament agreements. 

It covers developments over a two-year period ending December last year.

The 108-page report assesses the situation in individual countries on all aspects of weapons of mass destruction－nuclear,     chemical and biological. It also reviews missile proliferation and the status of compliance with agreements on conventional forces in Europe, among other defense issues.

The study does not examine     nuclear programs in Pakistan, India and Israel because none is a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and have not undertaken obligations to comply with the treaty's terms.

While the focus of international concern lately has been on the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, less attention has been paid to biological weapons.

A senior official who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity said BW proliferation is a strong US concern.

As of December 2003, 151 countries had ratified the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. An additional 16 counties had signed but not yet ratified the convention.

The cases the report dealt with were limited to those countries for which the most evidence exists of actual or potential noncompliance.

It reviewed the situations in Libya and Iraq, noting that the BW programs in both countries had been eliminated in 2003.

The findings in the report on six other countries whose BW programs were reviewed: China－The US reaffirms its judgment that China "maintains some elements of an offensive BW capability" in violation of its commitments under the convention.

Cuba－Some US government analysts continue to believe that Cuba has at least a "limited offensive BW research and development effort." Others say it is unclear whether any such effort exists.

Iran－Based on "all available information," Iran has an offensive BW program.

North Korea－US analysts believe that North Korea has a "dedicated, national level effort to develop a BW capability."

Russia－The US judges that, based on all available evidence, that Russia "continues to maintain an offensive BW program.

Syria－If Syria were a member of the BW convention, it would be in violation of its rules based upon the available evidence.

"Particularly in a post 9/11 world in which there exists a very real threat of weapons of mass destruction being used as weapons of terror, it is vital that the international community take all steps necessary to end noncompliance," the report said, referring to the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

The report, which was sent to members of Congress, did not specify what actions should be taken but a senior State Department official said that the US was discussing the report with a variety of countries.

While wagging a finger at countries such as Iran and North Korea, the report praised Libya for its December 2003 decision to give up its weapons of mass destruction program.

"This gives us a model [for how countries can change]," the senior State Department official said.

Meanwhile, a large quantity of illegal weapons left over from Bosnia's 1992-1995 war have been recovered in the past six months in the country's northwest and over 100 people face possible prosecution for hiding them, EU peacekeepers said on Tuesday.

The European Union Peace-keeping Force (EUFOR), assisted by local authorities, has seized 552 small arms, 828 hand grenades, 84 rifle grenades, 52 anti tank rockets, 73 kilograms of explosives and other items, the peacekeepers said in statement.

Beware of poisoned offerings

Beijing has stepped up its "united front" against Taiwan by widening the scope of its offensive to include not only China-based Taiwanese businesspeople and senior politicians but farmers, students and low-level party members as well. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, sadly, appears to be at its wits' end about how to cope with the problem. In its efforts to avoid whipping up the recent wave of "China fever," it has done little more than chant slogans and talk about "staying cool."

While China's united-front tactics against Taiwan are not new, the broadening of its scope to an across-the-board offensive against the Taiwanese public is a marked change. Previously Beijing ran a "top-down" campaign, targeting prominent individuals as a way of influencing Taiwanese society. Its new "bottom-up" method targets people who may not be high-ranking in terms of social status, but who have enough clout to affect society as a whole, such as farmers.

Taiwan's farmers, many of whom are considered DPP supporters, were clearly the target of the Chinese government's announcement in July that it would offer tariff-free treatment to certain Taiwanese fruit exports. The offer was a deliberate attempt to create friction between DPP grassroots supporters and the government.

Beijing's next target was Taiwanese high-school and college-age students. China's Ministry of Finance announced last week that starting this fall, Taiwanese university students will pay the same tuition as their Chinese counterparts. Beijing is also offering 7.2 million yuan (US$864,000) in scholarships to 20 percent of the Taiwanese students studying in China.

The scholarships won't cost the Chinese leadership very much, and they offer a huge return on the investment -- the chance to brainwash young Taiwanese to become a "pure Chinese" and plant a new generation of pro-China seedlings who can continue to be cultivated after they return home. China doesn't much care if its motives are obvious. It has even said that "its recruitment of Taiwanese students to study in China is a part of the mother country's unification agenda."

It seems that the Chen Shui-bian administration -- trying to avoid aggravating the huge rift between pan-green and pan-blue supporters stemming from last year's presidential election -- has developed a severe case of political scruples when it comes to cross-strait issues. The way it handled -- or didn't handle -- the China trips by former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong is a prime example. The government and its leaders dithered and dallied and finally ended up issuing a few mealymouthed statements, instead of roundly condemning comments made in China by both men that were clearly treasonous.

Beijing, of course, has taken advantage of the DPP's wishywashiness to escalate its offensive. Its tactics are cleverly calculated and substantial. Taipei, bogged down by inertia, seems barely able to raise its head and then only to mutter a few more slogans or engage in a half-hearted war of words with the pan-blue opposition.

As the saying goes, "to be too lenient is to breed evil." The government's ineptitude simply encourages China to even bolder measures, aided and abetted by the opposition politicians here. Even if the government is incapable of exerting itself, however, the people of Taiwan should take it upon themselves to be on guard against Beijing's poisoned apples. Their future depends on it.

Armitage speech shows US' concerns in Asia

By Sushil Seth

`It is not just the Asia-Pacific region where the US is being challenged. China and Russia are also actively seeking to eject the US from Central Asia.'

It is instructive to hear the views of an insider on US global leadership, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. During a recent visit to Australia to attend the annual Australian-American Leadership Dialogue in Sydney, Richard Armitage, who was until recently deputy US secretary of state, expounded at length on this. Even though his primary focus was Australia-US dialogue, he nevertheless couched it in regional terms. He highlighted how the "whole center of gravity in the world" was shifting to Asia with the rise of China and India; the latter being more like an afterthought (important, though, in its own right) to reduce China's larger-than-life image.

Against this backdrop, he cautioned Australia against cozying up to China too much. Which is interesting because, until recently, Washington had taken its alliance with Australia too much for granted. According to Armitage, "If I were Australian ? and I was beginning to feel the tectonic plates move a bit by the ascension of China, the ascension of India, then I think I would opt on the side of `maybe I'll just keep this security alliance a while longer,' because ultimately that's the guarantor that Australians very much will enjoy their lifestyle."

It must be worrying the US a fair bit having to remind Australia to hang on with it, lest China gobble it up along the way. More importantly, it shows how much the level of strategic competition with China is heating up. As Armitage bluntly put it, his country is in a "very active competition" with China for influence in the Pacific, and "we're not doing very well."

Take the case of the recent Sino-Russian military exercises: Washington is worried, even though it under-played their significance. US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, speaking at a Pentagon press briefing, said he didn't regard the exercises as a threat to Taiwan, or anybody else. But it is significant that, at that particular time, he described Taiwan as a "sovereign" nation and reiterated US obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) "to work with Taiwan on fulfilling security and arms sales provisions of that act." In other words, the US is not going to be deterred by China's (and Russia's) high military profile.

It is not just the Asia-Pacific region where the US is being challenged. China and Russia are also actively seeking to eject the US from Central Asia. The entire region is now a refurbished version of the 19th century Great Game that played out between czarist Russia and the British Empire. Instead of the British Empire, we now have a reinvigorated and emboldened China (backed by Russia) staking claim to the region.

And today's game has even higher stakes because of the potential oil and gas bonanza. US oil conglomerates would like use an intricate network of pipelines to pump oil and gas through Afghanistan, to Pakistan and India and beyond the Indian Ocean; and from Azerbaijan, through Georgia, to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. It is a high stakes game in a volatile region. China and Russia are using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes the four former Soviet republics, to make the region into their own backyard.

China's economy is growing at a frantic speed. This has its dangers, but that is another story. What is relevant here is that it is creating a rush on scarce global resources, particularly oil and gas, between China and the US. And that scramble is going to get more acute in Central Asia, and other places that are regarded as potential major sources of oil and gas reserves after the Middle East.

Returning to the Asia-Pacific region, the exclusion of the US from the East Asia summit in Kuala Lumpur in December, is a serious blow. It is difficult to imagine the US being left out of an important regional Asia-Pacific forum, when it is a significant political, military and economic presence in the region.

The proposed East Asia forum has China's encouragement and blessing, and is a victory of sorts for Beijing. At a time like this when China's political stock is high in Asia, it was unwise of Washington to downgrade its representation at the recently held ASEAN Regional Forum in Laos from the secretary of state to her deputy Robert Zoellick. Such peevishness is not a substitute for sound policy.

Armitage is worried about the US' exclusion from the inaugural East Asia Summit and has suggested that Australia should represent US views at the conference.

He said in Sydney, "I think there's a very large role for Australia if Australia chooses to play it, representing her own voice uniquely, but saying `This is the American point of view,' not making a judgment of it but making sure our voice can be heard."

It doesn't look like Canberra would be too keen to act as the US' proxy, having worked hard to secure an invitation to the summit.

While China is undoubtedly a major political player in the Asia-Pacific region, it still has a fair way to go before becoming "a formidable military power." But it is steadily heading that way. As Armitage noted, even though China's weapons are now directed at Taiwan, "let's be clear, the military capabilities that are poised toward a Taiwan scenario could also be poised to a Japan scenario." And Tokyo is fully aware of it, going by its recent threat assessments.

Will China put its Taiwan threat into practice? Not in the near future, considering that the US is standing by its commitment to defend Taiwan under the TRA. And this not withstanding the new bonhomie between China and Russia as evidenced in their bilateral military exercises. But China will keep up the pressure all round to wear out Taiwan and the US.

Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.