Ma, Liu attend memorial service
　

HECKLED AGAIN: Many of the villagers protested against a water channeling project near Siaolin Village that they believe was the main cause of the landslide
　

By Ko Shu-ling
STAFF REPORTER
Sunday, Aug 23, 2009, Page 1
　

Survivors of Kaohsiung County’s Siaolin Village (小林) — the village worst hit by Typhoon Morakot — appealed to President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to replace Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) yesterday, but Ma remained tight-lipped on his plans for the premier and for the Cabinet.

Walking to the memorial service that marked the 14th day following the deaths of typhoon victims at Jiasian Township’s (甲仙) Siaolin Village yesterday morning, Ma led government officials in a deep bow.

Siaolin, which had a registered population of 1,313, housed about 600 people when a mudslide struck on Aug. 8. Approximately 200 managed to escape, while survivors believe that more than 400 were buried under the mud.

Ma apologized for failing to protect the residents and promised to rebuild the village during his presidency. He said he had asked the Cabinet to produce concrete results before the country holds a national memorial service on Sept. 7.

Ma said he was upset and blamed himself for the government’s shortcomings in its relief efforts. As president of the country, Ma promised the central government would team up with the local government on the reconstruction of the village. The government would establish a memorial park or plinth if victim families wished, he added.
　

The villagers, however, were not satisfied with his promise. Holding banners that read “water diversion project destroys our homeland,” some angry villagers protested against the project carried out by the government near Siaolin, which they believe was the main cause of the landslide.
　

Some of them questioned Ma’s “intention” to retain Liu, while others demanded that both Ma and Liu take responsibility for the disaster and resign.

“How would you feel if your family members had died? If you cannot do the job well, let someone else do it,” an elderly lady shouted in Ma’s face.

Many villagers heckled Liu when he arrived with Ma at the memorial service.

“Premier Liu, are you going to resign? President Ma, are you still protecting Liu Chao-shiuan? Don’t you think someone has to take responsibility?” they shouted.

Ma, who did not respond to their questions, said the water diversion project was not authorized by the present administration, but that it would investigate the matter and determine who should take responsibility for the disaster.

Protesting outside, survivors from Sianshan (錫安山) and Namasiya (那瑪夏) townships said they also lost their loved ones and some of them were still missing, but they felt the government had totally forgotten about them.

Ma later went to Liouguei Township (六龜) and took part in another Buddhist prayer service held for those who were killed by mudslides in the Aboriginal community of Sinkai (新開).

Ma promised to complete reconstruction of the village during his term of office.

Unlike on Thursday when he was three hours late for a visit to a temporary shelter in Liouguei’s Sinliao (新寮) Village, Ma yesterday arrived at Sinkai Community (新開部落) 45 minutes early.

During a whirlwind visit to a temporary shelter at Sinfa Community, however, victims complained about the cloud of dust and rocks kicked up by Ma’s helicopter.

Mothers held their babies tight in their arms and kitchen crews used a lid to block the rocks. Ma shook their hands, hugged them, patted them on the back, but not many people could hear what he said over the sound of the idling helicopter.

Ma later visited a temporary shelter at Sandimen Township (三地門), Pingtung County, and told the 200 residents who managed to escape from Wutai Township (霧台) that the government did not do a good job during rescue efforts, but that it would do a better job of reconstruction work and disaster prevention in future.

Ma also urged residents to pay attention to mudslide warnings and to evacuate when the government deemed it necessary.

Meanwhile, during his weekly Web address yesterday, Ma said he would stand together with the victims of the typhoon and rebuild their homes during his term of office.

He also emphasized the importance of evacuations and downplayed the “strong complaints” of victim families, saying they were because they had high expectations of him and his administration.

The country began three days of mourning for the victims yesterday. National flags at all government buildings, schools and public places flew at half mast.

Foreign-media focus not welcome news for Ma

By Loa Iok-sin
STAFF REPORTER
Sunday, Aug 23, 2009, Page 3

“CNN has always stood with the imperialists ... It did so during the uprising in our country’s [sic] Tibet and now it’s like that again in the Province of Taiwan [sic].”— Kuo Kuan-ying, former GIO official

Taiwan received tremendous attention from foreign media in the past week; however, this was not the kind of focus the government wants, with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) becoming the focal point of criticism for his administration’s slow reaction to Typhoon Morakot.

“If President Ma Ying-jeou thought he might be treated presidentially on Wednesday as he toured a center for survivors of last weekend’s typhoon, he was mistaken,” the New York Times wrote in the opening paragraph of a story titled “Taiwan president is target of anger after typhoon,” published on Aug. 12.

“The moment he stepped onto a soccer field that had been doubling as a landing pad for rescue helicopters, Mr Ma was besieged by angry villagers who accused his administration of moving too slowly to help those still trapped in the mountains,” it wrote.

Al-Jazeera reporter Steve Chao, who was sent to disaster areas in Kaohsiung County, said last Saturday that while he could not decide whether all criticism on the government’s rescue efforts was accurate at the time, “we are aware of at least two communities that were not so much ignored, but did not receive aid fast enough.”

“Some of the survivors were forced to live on water that they could find for themselves before aid arrived,” he said.

The Reuters news agency quoted local political analysts as saying that “increased pressure on Ma, who was elected in 2008, could drain support for his [Chinese] Nationalist Party [KMT] in city and county elections in December.”

In the opinions section of the Wall Street Journal, a piece dated Monday described the political crisis as “Ma Ying-jeou’s Katrina moment.”

In a story titled “Political crisis in Taiwan after disaster brought by Typhoon Morakot,” the French newspaper Le Monde wrote on Friday that Ma was being “criticized for the slow rescue efforts, initial refusal of foreign aid and his lack of compassion as he toured the disaster-torn villages,” adding that Ma is trying to fight back to avert a political downfall.

CNN even conducted an online poll — though not intended to be a scientific one — that asked the question: “Should Taiwan’s leader stand down over delays in aiding typhoon victims?”

As of Aug. 16, 82 percent of respondents had voted “yes.”

Prior to Morakot, Ma had often been portrayed in a positive light by international media.

When Ma was inaugurated in May last year, the German business newspaper Handelsblatt reported the news with a story titled “‘Mr Handsome’ is the new president of Taiwan.”

For its part, Agence France-Presse wrote that the “Harvard-educated former mayor of Taipei” vows not to launch an arms race with China, raising “hopes of better relations across the Taiwan Strait.”

Soochow University political science professor Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) said that this new criticism from the international media was helpful.

“The government doesn’t seem to care much about what domestic media and the public think, but only cares about what foreign media say,” Lo said, adding that this could be one way to get the government’s attention.

“You see, Ma only gave an interview to CNN, not any local media,” Lo said. “[Premier] Liu Chao-shiuan [劉兆玄] referred to criticism by local media as ‘non-professional comments,’ but has any official made similar remarks about foreign media reports?”

Political commentary show host Lee Yang-chau (李艷秋) said in her TV show aired last week that the CNN poll was an “act of interference in domestic politics.”

Former Government Information Office official at the nation’s representative office in Toronto, Kuo Kuan-ying (郭冠英), who earlier this year was recalled and fired after publishing derogatory articles about Taiwan, called CNN “a tool of imperialists from beginning to end.”

“CNN has always stood with the imperialists,” Kuo told reporters during a gathering of New Party members.

“It did so during the uprising in our country’s [sic] Tibet happened and now it’s like that again in the Province of Taiwan [sic],” Kuo said yesterday. “It’s malicious.”

Ma is at wit’s end — and so are we

Sunday, Aug 23, 2009, Page 8

After being on the receiving end of criticism in Taiwan and in the international press for more than a week, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) called press conferences for domestic and international media on Tuesday. But they were a disappointment.

Ma said that the process of relocating victims of Typhoon Morakot and rebuilding communities would be long but that he would not shirk his responsibilities. He also said he would show the public that he could do the job, and asked that the public wait before passing judgment.

Reading between the lines, what Ma said was that he would be the judge of what constitutes good performance — disregarding criticism from across political lines and a CNN Internet poll that suggested a commanding majority of voters want him to step down.

Soon after he took office, Ma’s three-pronged election promise of 6 percent economic growth, 3 percent unemployment and US$30,000 per capita income collapsed. He then tried to extend its date of delivery until the end of a second term. It is easy to imagine that he will take the same approach if post-disaster relocation and reconstruction falter.

Ma seems to follow a line of thinking different from that of most people: When he fails, he doesn’t seek to understand where the fault lies; instead, he demands that voters give him another term and “wait to pass judgment at that time.” Keeping the public in suspense in redeeming promises doesn’t make for clever politics. If, “at that time” — the end of a second term — he still hasn’t delivered, what can voters do? He will have completed his constitutionally permitted time in office and can step down with a fat pension and no accountability.

Ma’s most substantive contribution at Tuesday’s press conferences was the announcement of the creation of a national disaster prevention and rescue agency to replace the National Fire Agency and the establishment of disaster prevention and rescue bureaus at the local level. Disregarding the legislative work that this will involve, the creation of this agency is speculative and does nothing to alleviate the present situation.

Even if such an agency were established, it would still fall under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of the Interior, as does the current National Fire Agency, and so the question remains whether the efficiency of disaster work would be improved by boosting the bureaucracy and spending a bigger chunk of the budget.

Much of this is therefore a distraction. Ma and his government — after missing a golden opportunity to handle the disaster relief effort with competence and gain the confidence of the electorate — seem to have no idea how to deal with dilemmas here and now.

Ma’s obstinate approach to problems in the real world, his refusal to issue an emergency decree and his almost superstitious belief that no command system exists to support disaster prevention and rescue meant that the military has been effectively reduced to cleaning up after the fact.

Would the death toll have been as high if Ma had announced a state of emergency and personally directed the rescue effort in his capacity as commander-in-chief of the armed forces?

The answer to this question may be contentious, but what is certain is that Ma spent an inordinate amount of time blaming the death and destruction on the volume of rain, meteorologists, blocked roads, tardy residents who did not evacuate in time and local governments in general. His self-declared approach of listening to the public and helping to solve their problems turned into ignoring the public and complaining about his own problems.

One foreign reporter asked Ma at the international press conference if his leadership was strong enough. With the nation’s future in his hands, and with a possible economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China on the horizon — which Ma says must be implemented, the sooner the better — there is every reason to be nervous about Taiwan’s future.

Ma’s insensitivity to the general public is a good reflection of what the first lady once said when describing him: “He is never very considerate toward the people around him or family members, and he never shows much concern or care for others.”

Not offending China and advancing unification is, however, always on his mind. When asked by a foreign reporter on Tuesday if China had influenced his decision to refuse foreign aid, Ma didn’t immediately reply.

Moreover, the UN General Assembly meets on Sept. 15, but the government has not asked its allies to submit an application for Taiwan’s admission to the organization and the deadline for this has passed.

Taiwan has struggled for more than 10 years to gain admission to the UN, but now Ma has abandoned the effort. What words can politely describe how the international community will interpret this symbolically poignant act of omission?

It is worth noting that Ma’s decision to abandon the UN bid would have been made prior to Typhoon Morakot, a decision very different in character to that which suspended National Day celebrations in light of the relief effort.

Some in the disaster area might still have had hopes and good expectations of Ma, but his pieces of hollow political theater on Tuesday are certain to turn disappointment into despair. Judging from the press conferences, Ma and his government are at their wit’s end, although the government remains the most important factor in post-disaster reconstruction, a process that will require huge commitments of manpower and resources.

The public must mobilize to monitor government reconstruction efforts to help relieve the suffering of residents in the disaster zone and to prevent a repeat of this tragedy.
　

Data from the sea can assist our predictions
　

By Liu Cho-teng 劉倬騰
Sunday, Aug 23, 2009, Page 8

Typhoon Morakot brought two to three days of extremely heavy rainfall over the southern and central parts of Taiwan, causing calamitous floods. Some people blame the disaster on inadequate water management, while others say that Taiwan’s weather forecasts are unreliable; in both cases more investment is said to be required. There is truth in both arguments, but what is actually lacking?

Typhoons in the Pacific and hurricanes in the Atlantic cause damage mostly in the form of floods, landslides and burst dykes. When a typhoon approaches, meteorologists can forecast strong wind and heavy rain, but all natural phenomena are inherently uncertain, unstable and unpredictable.

Hurricane Katrina, which struck the south coast of the US in 2005, is a good example. It quickly picked up power as it passed over an unusually warm loop current in the Gulf of Mexico, making it more powerful than meteorologists had predicted. By then it was too late to evacuate everyone, resulting in a disaster on a scale that occurs only once or twice a century in the US.

The great majority of hurricanes and typhoons derive their power from the warmth of the ocean. Typhoons that hit Taiwan draw warmth and water vapor from the surrounding waters. If the sea is abnormally warm, it will supply the gathering storm with more water vapor and power, often generating super-typhoons that carry extremely heavy rainfall.

In 2001, Typhoon Nari circled for a long time above the Kuroshio — the Japan Current — before attacking Taiwan from the direction of Okinawa. The extremely heavy rainfall paralyzed transport in and around Taipei and halted operations of most of the Banqiao-Nangang Line of Taipei’s MRT system for more than two months.

The cloud bands brought by Typhoon Morakot basically followed the Kuroshio Current from the South China Sea. As these clouds slowly crossed Taiwan in the wake of the typhoon, they drew in more and more humidity from the South China Sea, generating extremely heavy rainfall in southern and central Taiwan and causing serious flooding.

The US is a continental nation rather than a maritime one, but it has a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dedicated to management of information about the sea and the weather. Even with such a specialized body in existence, the US has on occasions failed to process and apply all available information in time to avert disaster.

Taiwan, which has no central maritime administration or ministry, has even less chance of obtaining timely and comprehensive information about maritime conditions, so our typhoon forecasts are even more limited in their accuracy.

There’s a joke about people who looked for a lost key but did not find it because they only looked where there was light, and not in the dark — which is where the key was lost.

The solution to finding the key is to illuminate the place where it was lost. Warm ocean water is what lies behind the formation of typhoons, and it is the cause of super-typhoons and super-heavy rainfall. Without this crucial item of information about the sea, how can Taiwan’s ability to forecast typhoons possibly be improved?

Meteorologists say we need more funding to improve typhoon forecasts, and I agree with them. Even if we use just a little funding to “illuminate” and look for the “key” — essential data from the ocean — then we can use this data to greatly improve our forecasting of powerful typhoons and super-heavy rainfall.

If we hope to address the problem effectively, we must first be clear about where the root of the problem lies.

Liu Cho-teng is a professor at the Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University.