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Taiwan¡¦s
worst-case scenario
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Monday, Jan 04, 2010,
Page 8
In 2001, Richard L. Russell of the US National Defense University published an
article in Parameters, the US Army War College quarterly. He devised a scenario
where China launched a ¡§surprise attack¡¨ on Taiwan. Beginning with a
bolt-from-the-blue barrage of hundreds of missiles to ¡§decapitate¡¨ Taiwan¡¦s
command-and-control facilities and air bases, China then dispatched transport
aircraft to deliver paratroopers to secure those disabled bases. By striking
hard and fast, China could swiftly control Taiwan before any US force came to
Taiwan¡¦s aid.
Although it was generally believed at the time that China¡¦s lack of sea and air
transport capability and its relatively outdated weapons systems ¡X compared to
Taiwan¡¦s ¡X would make it very difficult for it to conquer its so-call ¡§renegade
province,¡¨ Russell noted that Pearl Harbor, Germany¡¦s attack on the Soviet Union
and North Korea¡¦s invasion of South Korea were all successful surprise attacks.
He emphasized that ¡§improbable is not a synonym for impossible.¡¨
In 2001, China had about 240 missiles aimed at Taiwan. Now the number has
reached more than 1,400 and their accuracy has greatly improved. With more than
a decade of doubt-digit military budget growth, China¡¦s military capability is
completely different than in 2001. In October, Taiwan¡¦s defense ministry for the
first time publicly admitted that if the two sides were to go to war, China was
capable of deterring foreign militaries from assisting Taiwan, meaning that the
cross-strait military balance has irreversibly shifted in China¡¦s favor.
A report issued last year by the RAND Corporation, the most famous US military
think tank, also held the same daunting view, warning that ¡§the growing size and
quality of China¡¦s missile arsenal, along with other advances in Chinese
military capabilities, call into question the US¡¦ and Taiwan¡¦s ability to defend
the island against a large-scale Chinese attack,¡¨ and also that with its
military edge, ¡§any Chinese impatience with the pace of movement toward
Beijing¡¦s objective raises the danger of a major cross-strait crisis.¡¨
In other words, China¡¦s overwhelming military power dominates the cross-strait
security situation, the apparent ¡§status quo¡¨ is precarious and the time for
democratically governed Taiwan is ticking.
However, Taiwan¡¦s government relentlessly speeds up economic integration with
China through all kinds of cooperation, investments and engagements, all
measures that receive China¡¦s warm welcome. President Ma Ying-jeou (°¨^¤E)
emphasizes that these policies are to boost Taiwan¡¦s economy and prevent it from
being marginalized.
To save Taiwan from marginalization is a critical issue but the Ma government¡¦s
solution based on progressively relying on its greatest security concern rather
than on other friendly nations is not only risky but also leaves Taiwan in a
desperate situation. Strategically speaking, nothing is better for China than to
manipulate Taiwan¡¦s economy to achieve its goal of ¡§peaceful unification.¡¨ The
more Taiwan depends on China economically, the easier it could be forced to
unify with China.
Time magazine said the US has just experienced a decade from hell.
Unfortunately, for Taiwan, its nightmare is getting worse. Actually, Taiwan¡¦s
deteriorating defensive capabilities have mainly been caused by the Chinese
Nationalist Party¡¦s (KMT) eight-year opposition of US arms sales before the
power shift in 2008. And after a year in power, the KMT government is putting
Taiwan¡¦s economy at China¡¦s disposal.
If President Ma doesn¡¦t rectify this misguided policy immediately, the
consequences will be grave and his failure to reverse the dire situation would
be unforgivable.
TU HO-TING
Taipei
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