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Taiwanese can’t afford to wait for
submarines
By Wang Jyh-perng 王志鵬
Sunday, Feb 07, 2010, Page 8
The US recently announced an arms sales package including five items requested
by Taiwan but excluding advanced F-16C/D fighter planes and diesel-electric
submarines. Academics and think tanks in Taiwan and abroad perceived as early as
August that US Navy policymakers planned to change their policy on the submarine
sale. On Dec. 15, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方)
publicly stated that the US, having assessed the situation and to avoid the
massive cost of reopening the production line, was likely to suggest that Taiwan
build smaller coastal submarines not equipped with air-independent propulsion.
On Jan. 4, Defense News said the US might agree to conduct a first-stage
feasibility assessment for providing diesel-electric submarines. Based on this,
some concluded that Washington was likely to approve sale of diesel-electric
subs in the package, because that would be a compromise based on the US’
external environment and interests.
It would reduce the sensitivity of the issue so as not to “irritate” China. It
could keep its promise to Taiwan. Lastly, it would avoid protest from civic
groups that would be provoked by the sale of nuclear-powered submarines.
Many believe the package will have little impact on Sino-US or cross-strait
relations, since it is limited to defensive weapons or replacing existing
systems and will not significantly improve Taiwan’s deterrence capability. Mei
Fu-hsing (梅復興), director of the US-based Taiwan Strait Security Research and
Analysis Center, commented bluntly that the five-item package is no more than a
“stock clearance sale” that was already approved by former US president George
W. Bush.
As for F-16C/D fighter jets and diesel-electric submarines, Taipei’s
representative to Washington Jason Yuan (袁健生) said the US has not really
excluded the prospect and that a decision would be made after completion of an
evaluation report on Taiwan’s and China’s relative military strengths. In other
words, the US is probably testing the waters before Chinese President Hu
Jintao’s (胡錦濤) visit in April and intends to use the issue as a bargaining chip
for follow-up negotiations.
Few items among Taiwan’s past arms purchases had great deterrent effect. As
Brian Kennedy, president of the Claremont Institute, said in an opinion piece in
the Jan. 10 issue of the Wall Street Journal, US arms sales to Taiwan are
inadequate and if the US really wants to help Taiwan it should sell it more
advanced weapons.
Tamkang University professor Chen I-hsin (陳一新), meanwhile, said that China has
taken a series of steps in protest at US arms sales to Taiwan and the main aim
of these measures has been to deter the US from selling Taiwan diesel-electric
submarines, since diesel-electric submarines pose a bigger threat to China than
F-16C/D fighters.
For Taiwan, the defense value of the submarines would lie in their ability to
link up with and complement US forces by patrolling coastal waters within the
first Pacific island chain in which the presence of US vessels would be too
sensitive. Also, following September’s US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference in
Charlottesville, Virginia, the US side let it be known that it was Taiwan’s
government that wanted to block the diesel-electric submarine deal. In view of
the position taken on this issue by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and the KMT
when it was in opposition, it can be seen that the government’s position is far
from clear-cut.
It is unwise to keep delaying such a key item. Whether the government wants to
go through with the deal or not, it should set out a clear plan and give the
public a proper explanation.
Wang Jyh-perng is an associate research fellow at the
Association for Managing Defense and Strategies.
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