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PRC paranoia over Taiwan, Tibet
By Sushil Seth
Sunday, Mar 14, 2010, Page 8
China is angry at the US for selling defensive weapons to Taiwan. The US has
also incurred Chinaˇ¦s displeasure by continuing to treat the Dalai Lama with
consideration and regard, as seen by the recent meeting between the Tibetan
leader and US President Barack Obama, which went ahead despite Chinaˇ¦s protests.
Let us consider Taiwan first.
China always protests whenever the US sells weapons to Taiwan, but this time
there is a difference. Its tone is much harsher, threatening the US with
unspecified consequences over its bilateral relationship with Taiwan.
However, the US is only doing what it has done in the past, namely fulfilling
its obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to sell weapons to defend
Taiwan against any military attack from China.
This is even more relevant today as China continues to increase its deployment
of missiles targeting Taiwan. Experts estimate this deployment already exceeds
1,000 missiles, and these cannot possibly be meant to defend China from Taiwan.
Beijing contends that Taiwan belongs to China, and the US is interfering in its
internal affairs. In other words, the US should accept its claim to sovereignty
over Taiwan.
This is a dangerous way for China to pursue its objective, as the choice it
presents to Taiwan is to either accept Chinese sovereignty or face the
consequences of a military attack. The Taiwan Relations Act was meant precisely
to ward off such an eventuality.
Washington does not have any objection to peaceful unification based on the will
of the people of Taiwan. But China is opposed to any exercise of popular mandate
in Taiwan, rightly fearing that Taiwanese prefer to remain a sovereign nation
while pursuing peaceful relations with China, over the entire range of supposed
benefits from reunification.
Beijing has pre-empted this possibility, as far as it is concerned, by
unilaterally declaring Taiwan to be part of China and passing domestic
legislation to that effect.
In other words, any formal declaration of sovereignty by Taiwan will lead to its
forcible annexation by China.
The main obstacle in Chinaˇ¦s path is the US and the Taiwan Relations Act, which
commits the US to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
It is therefore unsurprising that Beijing protests every time Taiwan procures US
weapons, but this time China is being more belligerent.
For instance, it has threatened trade sanctions against US companies involved in
the sale of weapons to Taiwan.
This can perhaps be explained by a growing belief in China that the US is a
declining power and is therefore more easily pushed around.
Snubbing the US is also a convenient way of asserting Chinaˇ¦s great power
status.
A recent example was seen at the Copenhagen climate change conference when the
Chinese premier failed to attend an event hosted by Obama.
Whether or not the US is a declining power is academic because even with its
many problems, the US remains the worldˇ¦s largest economy and its pre-eminent
military power. As such, for China to treat the US in such a cavalier fashion
could be both dangerous and counterproductive.
In the case of Taiwan, Beijing might conclude that its new international status
and military power are deterrent enough for the US to stay out of any
cross-strait conflict. But for China to overestimate its power relative to that
of the US could turn out to be a costly strategic blunder.
Another issue, which has infuriated China, is the consideration shown to the
Dalai Lama, particular his recent meeting with Obama.
As in the case of US arms sales to Taiwan, China has recently stepped up its
rhetoric and adopted a more belligerent tone.
For China, the Dalai Lama is a traitor to the motherland and a monk in wolfˇ¦s
clothing.
By any dispassionate analysis, though, China appears terribly paranoid about the
Dalai Lama and the Tibetan issue.
In all the on-off meetings between the Dalai Lamaˇ¦s representatives and the
Chinese side, his delegation has done little more than press for greater
autonomy for Tibet.
The extent of that autonomy is likely to be determined by Chinaˇ¦s ability to
accommodate the Tibetan leader. In other words, there is no disagreement on the
core issue of Chinaˇ¦s sovereignty, as China will continue to control Tibetˇ¦s
defense and foreign policies as well as the issuance of Chinese currency.
The crux of the matter is that Beijing doesnˇ¦t trust the Dalai Lama.
The Dalai Lama is 74 and the Chinese are wishing him an early ascension to
heaven because that will allow them to appoint their own Dalai Lama, which it is
hoped will finally resolve the Tibetan problem once and for all.
They consider him the source of all Chinaˇ¦s problems on Tibet, an instigator of
unrest in the region as well as an important rallying point for world support.
During his recent Australian tour, the Dalai Lama gave some inkling as to the
future shape of the Tibetan movement in exile.
In an informal chat with an Australian journalist, Joyce Morgan, he said that,
in the short term (while he is still alive) it might be possible to appoint a
senior figure as an interim leader just ˇ§like a deputy Dalai Lama.ˇ¨
He maintained, though, that no decision has yet been made.
Regarding the future (his re-incarnation after his death), the Dalai Lama said
that since the very purpose of reincarnation is to continue the unfinished work
of the previous incarnation, it is only logical that he will be born in exile to
continue his unfinished work. In other words, the Dalai Lama is already working
to de-legitimize Chinaˇ¦s plans to appoint his successor after his death.
Considering his enormous moral authority, China will be forced to wrestle with
the Tibetan question for the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, given that the Dalai Lama is so keen to resolve the Tibetan
issue on the basis of autonomy ˇX with Tibet remaining part of China ˇX it makes
more sense for Beijing to seek a resolution to the issue while he is still
alive.
In other words, in the case of both Taiwan and Tibet, Chinaˇ¦s problems are
self-inflicted, based on chauvinism, paranoia and stubbornness. Blaming the US
for its own mistakes only serves to complicate matters even more.
Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
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