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Is an ECFA beneficial to Taiwan ˇK or the
US?
By Nat Bellocchi
Monday, Mar 29, 2010, Page 8
On March 18, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) held a
hearing on recent economic, political and military developments between Taiwan
and China and their implications for the US. A broad range of important issues
was raised, but one is of utmost interest: the proposed economic cooperation
framework agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China.
While trade agreements between countries are commonplace, this one has some
complex elements: It will be an agreement between two ˇ§entitiesˇ¨ (for lack of a
better term) which officially do not recognize each otherˇ¦s sovereignty.
Much has changed since the days of the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan made a
momentous transition to democracy in the early 1990s, and China experienced its
rise as a major economic and political power. Some things, however, have stayed
the same: China still claims Taiwan as part of its territory and vows to take
military action against it if it moves toward de jure independence.
Now an ECFA enters the picture. While under ˇ§normalˇ¨ circumstances such an
agreement would be a good thing, there are, in the present context, ample
reasons to have serious doubts.
At the USCC hearing, several witnesses argued in favor of an ECFA, seemingly
implying that it would be good for US relations with Taiwan and China. This, as
US Senator Sherrod Brown and Commissioner Dennis Shea stated, is by no means
certain.
Brown expressed reservations on both the content and the process for approval in
Taiwan. He noted that the two parties in the negotiations were rather unequal in
size and felt that Taiwan was ˇ§giving too much away with too little in return.ˇ¨
He also criticized the lack of transparency in the negotiations and the fact
that the legislative branch was not consulted in the process. He advised the
administration of US President Barack Obama to urge Taiwan to make the process
fully transparent and adhere to the basic principles of checks and balances
within the political system.
Shea said that Taiwan and China have very different motivations and expectations
for going into such an agreement. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government
wants to get out of the economic doldrums and sees closer economic association
with China as the only way out. For China, it is much more political: Chinese
officials and analysts see it as a stepping stone toward unification.
So what are the implications for the US and other countries in the region? It is
beyond doubt that such an agreement between China and Taiwan will move Taiwan
further under the Chinese umbrella. A closer link between the two economies will
lead to a distancing between Taiwan and the US. Over time, this will also mean
that Taiwan will drift away from the US politically. Is this what we want?
During the past decades, Taiwanˇ¦s economy and political system have thrived
because of its close ties with the US and the West in general. Freedom and
democracy became an integral part of the political, economic and social system
in Taiwan, in part because of frequent and close interactions with the West.
The big questions policymakers in Taipei, Washington and Europe should grapple
with are these: If Taiwan becomes more economically integrated with China, what
will this do to its flourishing democracy? If Taiwan shines less brightly as a
beacon for democracy, what does this do to our support for democracy in Asia as
a whole and the confidence people in East Asia will have in the US?
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute
in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed
in this article are his own.
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