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Obama must act before it’s too late
By Li Thian-hok 李天福
Tuesday, Apr 13, 2010, Page 8
‘The US has also criticized China for its human rights violations against its
own people. So there is no reason why the Obama administration should keep
silent in the face of the deterioration of democratic institutions in Taiwan. A
free and prosperous Taiwan is in the US’ interest.’
A crisis is gathering in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s status as an independent
democracy is being undermined daily as the momentum for its annexation by the
People’s Republic of China inexorably gains strength. The Chinese Nationalist
Party (KMT) is collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to implement
the cultural and economic integration of Taiwan with China, aiming for the
signing of a peace accord before the end of 2012. The fall of Taiwan would be a
geostrategic disaster for the US and would most likely deprive US President
Barack Obama of his chance for re-election in November 2012.
Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) is scheduled to leave office in October 2012.
He intends to accomplish the absorption of Taiwan before then as his historical
legacy for the People’s Republic. The signing of a peace accord is the last item
on his Six Points agenda for the unification of Taiwan and China.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is expected to run for re-election in March 2012.
If his approval ratings are still as low as they are now, Beijing will apply
pressure on the Ma administration to sign a peace accord before the end of his
term of office and formally accept China’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.
If Ma is re-elected, this would certainly be taken as a mandate to deliver
democratic Taiwan into the CCP’s grasp. Ma has repeatedly declared that his goal
is ultimate unification. His policy is steady progress toward the surrendering
of Taiwan’s freedom by 2012 by concluding an economic cooperation framework
agreement (ECFA) by this summer. Beijing has openly admitted that the signing of
an ECFA is a means toward political integration of Taiwan and China.
Under Ma’s policy of opening up Taiwan to Chinese investment, tens of thousands
of Chinese white collar workers are now living in Taiwan. This influx will grow
rapidly.
The Ma government is also pressing Taiwan’s media to refrain from criticizing
its policies or human rights violations in China. Taiwan’s police are harassing
or intimidating people engaged in peaceful demonstrations, either by physical
violence or imposition of fines. Taiwan’s judiciary is increasingly serving as
the KMT’s political tool, its traditional role during the White Terror era.
The repression of Taiwan’s democracy is another way of paving the ground for
Taiwan’s capitulation. If Taiwan were no longer a democracy, it would certainly
lose US support and Taiwanese would have less reason to resist Chinese
aggression.
A great majority of the people in Taiwan prefer to keep their democratic way of
life. Yet they often feel helpless in stopping the KMT’s relentless march toward
Taiwan’s capitulation. The KMT controls a two-thirds majority in the legislature
and could pass any law it chooses. Taiwan’s media is also dominated by the KMT
and other pro-China forces. The anxiety regarding Taiwan’s future and growing
anger over Ma’s betrayal of the people’s trust make for a combustible
instability.
Ramming a peace accord down people’s throats may backfire. There could be a
widespread popular upheaval against the Ma government, reminiscent of the
situation in February 1947. The upper echelons of Taiwan’s military is still
dominated by Mainlanders and their offspring, but the middle and lower ranks are
not. The big question is whether the military would meekly follow any order from
Ma to disarm and surrender. Beijing has clearly asserted that in the event of
major domestic disturbance in Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would
invade.
In his testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on
March 18, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia David Shear said:
“We do not support Taiwan independence. We are opposed to unilateral attempts by
either side to change the status quo.”
So presumably Washington prefers to keep Taiwan’s status quo. Yet as a practical
matter, how would the US government oppose KMT/CCP collusion to destroy Taiwan’s
democracy against the wishes of most Taiwanese?
To maintain the status quo while coping with Beijing’s wrath would be no easy
task. Yet preserving Taiwan’s freedom is essential to the viability of the
US-Japan alliance and US interests in East Asia.
The “10,000 letters to President Obama” campaign, which was launched by the
North America Taiwanese Women’s Association in July last year was intended to
call Obama’s attention to the coming crisis in Taiwan and to make four policy
recommendations.
With the help of other Taiwanese American organizations and two NGOs in Taiwan,
the group eventually collected more than 18,000 signed letters. The result was
the meeting that took place on March 23 at the Rosslyn office of the American
Institute in Taiwan. (“Groups petition Obama to help Taiwan,” March 25, page 1).
The first suggestion is for Obama to reaffirm the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
The Obama administration has already done this by approving the sale of a US$6.4
billion arms package to Taiwan in January, including PAC-III missiles and Black
Hawk helicopters.
The request by Taiwan’s government to purchase 66 F-16C/D fighter jets, however,
is still pending. The Feb. 16 report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency found
that Taiwan’s fleet of aging aircraft urgently needs upgrades. Taiwan’s Ministry
of National Defense recently reported that Taiwan’s fighter aircraft are
generally inferior to China’s. There is no question that Taiwan needs the
F-16C/D fighters to redress the growing military imbalance with China.
Some analysts doubt that the Obama administration would risk angering Beijing by
approving the sale of the F-16C/Ds, but under the TRA, the president and
Congress are required to determine the nature and quantity of arms sales to
Taiwan “based solely on their judgment of the needs of Taiwan.” In August 1982,
then-US president Ronald Reagan assured Taipei that Washington would not hold
consultations with Beijing on arms sales to Taiwan.
We urge Obama to approve the sale of the F-16C/Ds soon, since F-16 production
will soon be closing down. Such a show of resolve will help in reassuring Japan,
whose recent attempt to distance itself from the US is partly because of its
growing doubts about Washington’s commitment to stay in East Asia over the long
haul.
The second suggestion is for the Obama administration to voice concern about the
recent erosion of freedom of speech and assembly and the loss of judicial
independence in Taiwan. Past US administrations and particularly Congress have
encouraged and supported Taiwanese democratization. The US has also criticized
China for its human rights violations against its own people. So there is no
reason why the Obama administration should keep silent in the face of the
deterioration of democratic institutions in Taiwan. A free and prosperous Taiwan
is in the US’ interest.
Thirdly, counterproductive restrictions on Washington-Taipei contacts could be
removed by sending a Cabinet member to Taiwan and allowing US Navy ships to call
at Taiwanese ports, points made by Congressman Ed Royce during a speech at
George Washington University in May last year.
The military balance across the Taiwan Strait has shifted decisively in China’s
favor. Taiwan’s freedom is in jeopardy because of external threat and internal
subversion. The US must pay close attention to the rapidly changing situation
within Taiwan.
In the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot, the US military extended assistance to
Taiwan expeditiously — an action that was greatly appreciated and that lifted
Taiwanese morale. High-level visits between Washington and Taipei would
facilitate mutual understanding. Visits by US flag officers could forestall
unpleasant surprises.
The last suggestion is to deploy two aircraft carrier task forces in the western
Pacific and secure basing rights in the Philippines and the Ryuku Islands. This
is in line with the TRA’s requirement that the US maintain the capacity to
resist any resort to force or other form of coercion.
In the last Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) released by the US Department of
Defense before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, then-US secretary of defense Donald
Rumsfeld made similar recommendations. The QDR said Asia was the most dynamic
region in the world, with the economies of China and India developing rapidly.
Yet unlike Europe, there are no multilateral security arrangements in Asia.
To remain a global power and to protect its economic, political and security
interests, the US must engage Asian nations and try to maintain peace and
stability in the region. With the growth of China’s economy and its military
power, this is even more compelling today.
A stronger US military presence in East Asia would help deter Chinese military
adventures and reassure Washington’s democratic allies about US resolve to
remain a Pacific power. It will also contribute to a more robust US-Japan
security partnership.
If the Obama administration could adopt such policy prescriptions, there is a
chance that the status quo could be maintained until such time that a peaceful
resolution of Taiwan’s status that is acceptable to the Taiwanese can be found.
Failure to act in time, however, means democratic Taiwan will become part of
autocratic China before the end of 2012.
The consequences include the collapse of the US-Japan alliance as Japan turns
into a vassal state of China, unpredictable instability on the Korean peninsula
and Chinese hegemony over all Asia as US forces withdraw back to Hawaii.
After such a major victory over the US, an intransigent China would pursue an
expansionist agenda of world domination, ultimately bringing China into conflict
with the US.
The above scenario is plausible. Its realization would mean that Obama would be
remembered in history as the president who triggered the greatest security
threat to the US homeland.
I urge Obama to act before it is too late.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
The views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect
those of the Taipei Times.
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