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ECFA could end political freedom
By Wu Hui-lin 吳惠林
Friday, Apr 16, 2010, Page 8
Debate has been raging in Taiwan over the signing of an economic cooperation
framework agreement (ECFA) with China to the point that there is now a virtual
stand-off between the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties, President Ma
Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
The predominant argument for an ECFA in this debate is that Taiwan risks
becoming marginalized if it doesn’t sign the agreement.
Both the opposition party and other people who don’t want to see the ECFA signed
have, as yet, failed to come up with a direct response to this claim, which has
led the pro-ECFA side to pursue the matter, challenging their opponents to come
up with a better solution than an ECFA that will prevent marginalization.
I have yet to hear a satisfactory reply.
I remember when Taiwanese businesspeople were making an earlier decision on
whether to set themselves up in China or remain in Taiwan.
You would often hear them giving voice to the sentiment, “damned if we do,
damned if we don’t, but at least we might make a living for ourselves if we go
over there.”
My question is: Does such a dilemma actually exist?
Marginalization is not necessarily a disaster. I mean, when has Taiwan not been
on its own in Asia, if not the world? It’s still standing tall. Doesn’t that say
it all?
The Taiwanese need to ask what the signing of an ECFA is actually going to do
for us.
The government is all but telling us that this is a way into the world
community, and from then on, with a bit of luck, it could all be plain sailing.
Yeah, right.
I have also heard quite a few people talking about us being “the next Hong
Kong,” or following the “one state, two systems” model.
Well, hey, let’s sign the ECFA and be just like Hong Kong. We can look forward
to a widening gap between rich and poor, people being forced to live in cages —
or “bed-space apartments” as the Hong Kong government calls them — and standards
of living going through a hole in the floor. And you can then kiss goodbye to
any hope for a “harmonious society.”
A recent opinion poll conducted by the Chinese University of Hong Kong shows
that, for the first time, residents do not believe that Hong Kong is a
harmonious society, with 59 percent of people saying that political disputes are
a serious problem, and 56 percent citing conflict between people and
officialdom.
It is estimated that, of the 6 million adult residents of Hong Kong, 1.5 million
advocate taking tough action to get the government to respond to their demands.
Compared with a similar poll taken in 2008, the number of residents believing
that Hong Kong is a harmonious society has fallen by almost 10 percent.
Assuming a scale of one to five, with the number three as the dividing line
between the two sides, the average value for this poll is only 2.98, compared
with an average value of three or above in similar polls conducted in the past.
This shows that, for the first time, Hong Kong residents on the whole do not
perceive their society to be harmonious.
It might be worth mentioning here that the main reason it is even possible to
maintain the pretense of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong is precisely
because of the existence of one country, Taiwan, which enjoys a free democratic
society.
Given this, I think we would do well to consider for a minute what would happen
should the signing of an ECFA go ahead.
There would no longer be any need to keep up the pretense of “one country, two
systems,” and we would see freedom in both Taiwan and Hong Kong go up in a puff
of smoke.
Would this be the end of a democratic Taiwan as we know it?
If so, Taiwan would not only be consigned to the margins, it would be consigned
to history.
Residents of Taiwan, the ball is in your court.
Wu Hui-lin is a researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for
Economic Research.
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