Discontent checks China¡¦s dreams
By Sushil Seth
Sunday, May 09, 2010, Page 8
¡¥While China¡¦s story of spectacular economic growth could eventually make it a
center of power, there is an important caveat here that is generally ignored in
this big picture: Can a one-party state of China¡¦s size continue to maintain its
monopoly of power?¡¦
The symbolism of China¡¦s growing power was dramatized in French President
Nicolas Sarkozy¡¦s recent China visit as an exercise in smoothing relations with
that country. Relations between France and China reached a crisis point in 2008
over a series of events such as protests in Paris over the Beijing Olympic torch
relays, criticism of China¡¦s human rights in Tibet and, above all, Sarkozy¡¦s
meeting with the Dalai Lama.
Beijing reacted strongly by downgrading economic and political relations with
Paris. Beijing was apparently telling France and the world that any country
officially hosting the Dalai Lama would have to be prepared to stand up to China
or else face political and economic sanctions.
Taiwan last year managed to squeeze in a visit by the Dalai Lama when it was hit
by a typhoon, without repercussions. He was invited to offer spiritual solace
sought by the affected people and their political leaders who, incidentally,
largely belonged to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party.
Understandably, China didn¡¦t want to give President Ma Ying-jeou¡¦s (°¨^¤E)
opponents more political fuel to damage the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Ma
is Beijing¡¦s best political bet in Taiwan¡¦s competitive political landscape.
Sarkozy¡¦s China visit is undoubtedly an important symbol of China¡¦s ¡§Middle
Kingdom¡¨ syndrome and an effective exercise of Beijing¡¦s coercive diplomacy.
However, It doesn¡¦t square with the reality of Chinese power and prosperity. In
terms of raw military power, the US still remains the most powerful country in
the world.
As for economic prosperity, in per capita terms, China is way behind the West
and Japan, and is likely to take a long time to reach a similar level of
prosperity, if ever. Yet, its spectacular economic growth and its geographical
size have created the perception of a new superpower likely to overtake the US
in the next two to three decades.
Increasingly, policymakers are arriving at this view, which has led them to
favor accommodating and integrating China into the framework of existing
international institutions that have been largely shaped by the West. It is
believed that in this way, the transition to a new world order with China as a
crucial component might be achieved peacefully.
According to China scholar Marc Lanteigne, ¡§What separates China from other
states and indeed previous global powers [like Germany and Japan], is that not
only is it ¡¥growing up¡¦ within the milieu of international institutions far more
developed than ever before, but more importantly, it is doing so while making
active use of these institutions to promote the country¡¦s development of global
power status.¡¨
It is true China has made best use of the existing international institutions to
exponentially increase exports (though the global economic crisis has limited
that prospect), amass trade surpluses of US$2.4 trillion (and rising) and
significantly increase its international profile.
At the same time, however, it is also true that when constrained in its role as
an emerging global power, it doesn¡¦t feel the need to abide by some accepted
international norms ¡X which is frustrating for the international community.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd best expressed this frustration in a recent
speech at the Australian National University: ¡§It doesn¡¦t help, for example,
that China associates with regimes around the world that others seek to isolate
because of their assault on the integrity of the international system ¡X from
Sudan to Burma.¡¨
Beijing is prepared to operate within the multilateral framework of
international institutions as long as it suits China. At the same time, it likes
the operational flexibility to promote its interests as a competitive center of
power.
Indeed, in recent history, no country with global aspirations has been satisfied
with a role within an existing global system. Germany and Japan are examples.
As US scholar of realpolitik John Mearsheimer has written: ¡§If China continues
its impressive economic growth over the next few decades, the United States and
China are likely to engage in an intense security competition with considerable
potential for war.¡¨
While China¡¦s story of spectacular economic growth could eventually make it a
center of power, there is an important caveat here that is generally ignored in
this big picture: Can a one-party state of China¡¦s size continue to maintain its
monopoly of power?
There are already signs of widespread social unrest in various forms and in
different places in the country, along with their suppression with brute state
power.
Bao Tong (Àj§Í), a famous Chinese dissident, has said: ¡§Every four minutes there
is a protest of more than 100 people.¡¨ In other words, Bao says, many ¡§little
Tiananmens¡¨ are happening everyday.
These demonstrations lack organization, however. The Chinese Communist Party¡¦s
greatest fear is that human rights activists and intellectuals might fill the
organizational gap at some point when social discontent reaches a critical
point, hence the systematic suppression of such elements.
The question, though, is for how long this can succeed.
There are many issues agitating the people, from corruption and nepotism to land
grabs, gangsterism, particularly by local authorities, and police brutality to
silence its critics.
One example is China¡¦s World Expo showcase in Shanghai, which reportedly
involved clearing 2.6km² along the Huangpu River. This meant moving 18,000
families and 270 factories, including the Jiangnan Shipyard, which employs
10,000 workers.
Only an authoritarian regime of China¡¦s ilk can spend US$45 billion for such an
event, and cause so much distress and suffering to its own people by removing
them and disrupting their livelihood.
There are many Chinese examples, big and small, of such scant regard for people
by a government bent on having its way.
Anyone forecasting China¡¦s future and its international status, therefore, must
take into account the fragility of the country¡¦s internal situation.
It is a one-party state with no proper channels for people to express their
frustration and anger and to seek justice. In such a situation, with anger and
frustration constantly building up and with no safety valve to release people¡¦s
discontent, there is every danger of a blow-up at some point.
Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
¡@
|