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Lies, damned lies and statistics
Friday, May 21, 2010, Page 8
Yesterday marked President Ma Ying-jeou¡¦s (°¨^¤E) second year in office and the
midway point of his four-year term.
In the build-up to the anniversary, the media has been awash with surveys and
polls rating almost everything, from Taiwan¡¦s current economic situation and
support for a planned economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with
China, to Ma¡¦s popularity and even his chances of re-election against
prospective opposition presidential candidates in 2012.
Of course, the government immediately jumped on the positive, with particular
attention being given to the International Institute for Management
Development¡¦s (IMD) latest world competitiveness report, which saw Taiwan jump
from 23rd to eighth position, indicating increased competitiveness and
government efficiency. Premier Wu Den-yih (§d´°¸q) was quick to take the plaudits.
Yet US-Taiwan Business Council Chairman Paul Wolfowitz also mentioned in a
speech this week that Taiwan was ranked 46th in the World Bank¡¦s annual Doing
Business report, far behind the other three Asian ¡§tiger¡¨ economies, with
Singapore and Hong Kong in the top three.
Needless to say, the government was not so keen to highlight the results of this
particular poll, and while the two reports focused on different aspects of
Taiwan¡¦s business environment, they did show the wealth of statistics that are
available to people wanting to state a particular case.
This phenomenon has also been prevalent with regard to statistics and polling
related to the ECFA, with reports about the economic benefits differing widely
in their findings.
Government-affiliated think tanks have produced largely rosy post-ECFA
predictions of GDP growth and job opportunities, while their adversaries have
painted gloomy scenarios of shattered industries and job losses totaling
hundreds of thousands.
Opinion polls have also mimicked this pattern, with government and
pro-unification media surveys showing growing support for the pact, while the
pro-independence polls have shown that opposition to signing an ECFA is strong.
With all this opposing information, it is no wonder that the public remains
confused.
The result of such polling is also the reason why a growing number of people in
Taiwan no longer have faith in such results.
It is a fact that statistics and polls can be manipulated to support even the
most unpopular arguments, hence the adage ¡§there are three kinds of lies: lies,
damned lies and statistics.¡¨
The premier probably had this in mind when he said he wanted to achieve a 60
percent public approval rating before the ECFA is signed. Even with time running
out as the government¡¦s self-imposed June deadline approaches and public opinion
on the subject remains divided, Wu knows full well that there is a pollster out
there somewhere that can produce the desired result.
However, while the government may be able to fudge the numbers to give it a
mandate to sign an ECFA, one thing the polls have been consistent on is the
continued low approval rating of Ma and his administration.
Should it continue to rule in the arrogant, arbitrary manner it has employed in
its first two years, then this government will be voted out in 2012, something
no amount of positive statistics will be able to prevent.
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