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Experts wary of coming political talks
POST-ECFA: Former GIO director Lin Chia-lung accused the Chinese Nationalist
Party and Chinese Communist Party of trying to change the cross-strait status
quo
By Rich Chang and Su Yung-yao
STAFF REPORTERS
Sunday, Jul 11, 2010, Page 1
Panelists attending a forum on cross-strait affairs yesterday
said the recently signed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has
advanced the timetable for cross-strait political negotiations.
Following the ECFA signing, Taiwan effectively left the economic orbit of the US
and entered that of China. Strategically, Taiwan has been Finlandized, and its
international status is now similar to that of Hong Kong and Macau, said Lai I-chung
(¿à©É©¾), an executive board member of the pro-localization Taiwan Thinktank.
Lai told the think tank-hosted forum that 2012 would be a key year because that
is when President Ma Ying-jeou¡¦s (°¨^¤E) four-year term comes to an end and
Chinese President Hu Jintao (JÀAÀÜ) has said he would stand down. That will
inevitably create pressure for the two sides to hold political talks and set a
fixed course for their successors.
Although observers thought that holding cross-strait political talks would not
help Ma¡¦s chance of being re-elected, if the Chinese side felt that his chances
of serving a second term were slim or if they started to lose confidence in him,
they could use the period before and after Taiwan¡¦s next presidential election
to ramp up pressure for a political agreement, said Lai, formerly director of
the Democratic Progressive Party¡¦s (DPP) International Affairs Department.
The most likely time for this would be within six months after the March 2012
election, at which time China would withdraw all the concessions it had made to
Taiwan over the preceding four years, Lai said.
The theme of yesterday¡¦s forum was ¡§Can we maintain the status quo? How to
approach political negotiations between the Chinese Nationalist and Chinese
Communist parties.¡¨
Former Government Information Office (GIO) minister Lin Chia-lung (ªL¨ÎÀs),
chairing the forum, said it was now the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and
Chinese Communist Party who, between them, were trying to change the status quo
in cross-strait relations.
Lin said the ECFA ¡§has set a harmful precedent, and that a similar formula was
now likely to be applied to political negotiations,¡¨ including a peace agreement
and mechanism for mutual trust in military matters.
The major drawbacks of this formula include not seeking legislative approval
before making cross-strait agreements and not subjecting them to legislative
examination and oversight or public referendum once they have been signed, Lin
said.
The ECFA was negotiated by bodies outside established structures of government
that were given a completely free hand to conduct economic talks, and this put
cross-strait relations beyond oversight by bodies representing public opinion,
Lin said.
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