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Not the right time for political talks
with China
By Ko Shu-ling
Staff Reporter
Tuesday, Aug 10, 2010, Page 3
¡§The KMT administration and the CCP are actually sleeping in the same bed,
but sharing very different dreams. The KMT seems to want more peace than
unification, at least in public, while China is interested in not only peace,
but also unification.¡¨¡ÐTung Chen-yuan, National Chengchi University political
science professor
Despite China¡¦s mounting pressure for political and military
talks, the time is not ripe for Taipei and Beijing to engage in such
negotiations, analysts said.
Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesman Geng Yansheng (¯Õ¶¥Í) on July 30 said China
was willing to talk about redeploying its missiles aimed at Taiwan under the
¡§one China¡¨ principle when the two sides discuss the establishment of military
confidence-building measures.
It was the first official response from Beijing to President Ma Ying-jeou¡¦s
(°¨^¤E) call to remove missiles aimed at Taiwan if both sides are to begin
political negotiations.
Following the Chinese defense ministry¡¦s comment, the Ma administration
skillfully sidestepped the ¡§one China¡¨ principle and focused on the so-called
¡§1992 consensus.¡¨ The ¡§1992 consensus,¡¨ the administration said, was a consensus
reached by Taiwan and China in 1992 in which the two sides agreed there was only
¡§one China,¡¨ while each side had its own interpretation of what that meant.
However, the ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ is a term former National Security Council
secretary-general Su Chi (Ĭ°_) admitted inventing in 2000 in a bid to describe
the KMT claim that Taiwan and China had agreed on the existence of ¡§one China,¡¨
but with different interpretations.
The Ministry of National Defense said it welcomed China¡¦s redeployment of
missiles, but emphasized that it did not bear any substantive significance
militarily because the missiles are mobile.
The ministry also denied a media report on Aug. 2 claiming that it began
planning the creation of military confidence-building measures with Beijing in
June and they had proposed that a list of weapons systems targeted for
withdrawal be submitted in future military-to-military negotiations.
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) urged China to establish mutual trust by
renouncing military intimidation against Taiwan. It also called on China to
review its ¡§Anti-Secession¡¨ Law targeting Taiwan, which it said was impeding the
development of ties between Taipei and Beijing.
Mainland Affairs Council Minister Lai Shin-yuan (¿à©¯´D), while in the US, urged
Beijing to abolish ¡§policies and laws¡¨ concerning military deployments
targeting Taiwan, but fell short of asking Beijing to abolish its
¡§Anti-Secession¡¨ Law.
She also said the timing and conditions were not ripe for military or political
negotiations.
Former council secretary-general Chan Chih-hung (¸â§Ó§») said the administration
was not yet ready for political talks with Beijing.
Chan said he understood some military personnel have been attending academic
forums to discuss military negotiations with their Chinese counterparts, but
added that official talks had not yet begun.
Chan said Beijing¡¦s claim that it was willing to talk about military
redeployment was nothing new, adding that it was a rehash of what Chinese
President Hu Jintao (JÀAÀÜ) said in ¡§Hu¡¦s Six Points.¡¨
However, the administration seems unable to react to China¡¦s pressure for
political talks even though Ma urged China to remove its missiles more than two
years ago when he was campaigning for president.
If the administration is not ready for political negotiations, it would be best
to delay the process, Chan said.
¡§The additional cross-strait flights fiasco tells us that it is better for the
administration to postpone political negotiations, at least until after 2012,
but I doubt that Beijing can wait until 2012 because they are not certain
whether Ma will win the re-election,¡¨ he said.
Chang said Beijing might think that if political negotiations cannot bear fruit
by 2012, they should at least start negotiations so Beijing can exert more
pressure on the Ma administration over the next two years.
Chan said Ma would not dare publicly endorse the ¡§one China¡¨ policy, but his
administration could engage China politically via unofficial means or make
under-the-table deals.
Tung Chen-yuan (µ£®¶·½), a political science professor at National Chengchi
University¡¦s Graduate Institute of Development Studies and former MAC deputy
minister, concurred that the administration was not ready to engage in political
or military talks with Beijing.
¡§The administration does not have the public consensus on the issue nor any
mechanism to integrate different opinions,¡¨ he said.
Taiwan must one day address political differences, but until then, the
administration must figure out how to best protect Taiwan¡¦s interests, Tung
said.
Public consensus is key to political talks with Beijing, Tung said, adding that
mutual trust is equally important for both sides to move forward.
Tung said the administration figured that the best tactic at the moment was to
delay political negotiations because the vague ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ provided the KMT
a comfort zone. Once it engages in political or military negotiations with
Beijing, it would be forced to make clear its political position, and it could
put itself in an unfavorable position when it exposes its definitive stance.
The government would get itself into further trouble if the results of their
negotiations with China did not satisfy the public, he said.
Therefore, the government¡¦s policy is to focus on economic, cultural and social
issues, hoping that any economic benefits would score political points and build
up public confidence in its cross-strait policy, he said.
Beijing has been willing to play along because it thought by doling out economic
favors it could pressure the KMT to move toward their common ¡§one China¡¨ goal,
he said.
Tung said Ma was reluctant to admit that his ultimate goal was unification, but
unification remains the KMT¡¦s intention. The administration also does not want
to rush the process, but instead wants to see the situation develop gradually.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), on the other hand, has been clear about its
goal of ¡§peaceful unification,¡¨ and is eager to see some result, he said.
¡§The KMT administration and the CCP are actually sleeping in the same bed, but
sharing very different dreams,¡¨ Tung said. ¡§The KMT seems to want more peace
than unification, at least in public, while China is interested in not only
peace, but also unification. So in Beijing¡¦s mind, Taiwan is pushing for
peaceful independence, not peaceful unification.¡¨
The administration also has a few bargaining chips, Tung said, but Beijing is
unwavering in its position and clear about its tactic.
When it comes to military negotiation, Beijing likes to link it with the ¡§one
China¡¨ principle and US arms sales to Taiwan, Tung said.
It is clear that Beijing wants Taipei to accept the ¡§one China¡¨ principle before
the two sides begin negotiations and that Beijing wants Washington to reduce its
arms sales to Taiwan.
¡§If the administration¡¦s only demand at the negotiation table is to ask China to
remove its missiles, I want to know what the administration is offering in
return,¡¨ he said.
Chang Jung-feng (±iºaÂ×), director-general of the Taiwan Association for Strategic
Simulation and former deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council,
said he was not so concerned about when the administration should begin
political negotiations with Beijing, but it worried him that the administration
had no idea what it wants from cross-strait negotiations and he asked whether it
had any contingency plan should negotiations go awry.
Taking China¡¦s military deployment as an example, Chang said if the two sides
cannot see eye to eye on whether the issue should be set as a precondition for
negotiations or a discussion topic, they should not begin negotiations at all.
¡§The best timing for the administration to engage in any political negotiations
with Beijing is when it knows what it wants and when it has the ability to get
it,¡¨ he said.
So, if political negotiations between the two sides are inevitable: Which side
has the advantage of time?
Chang said time was on the side of the party that works harder to build up its
strength, Chan said time was on the side of the best prepared, and Tung said
time was on Taiwan¡¦s side because its democracy has built a stable political and
social environment, while China is facing many political and social challenges
and uncertainties.
If Taiwan stands by its democratic institutions, time should be on Taiwan¡¦s
side, he said, unless some politicians deliberately do something unfavorable to
hurt Taiwan.
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