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Containing China in new cold war
By Paul Lin 林保華
Sunday, Aug 22, 2010, Page 8
On Monday, the US and South Korea held their second joint
military exercise in a month. The scale of the drill outstripped that of the
first drill, held late last month, by three times. Despite both Chinese and
North Korean threats, the US and South Korean insistence on the drills was a
response to North Korea’s alleged sinking of the South Korean Cheonan warship.
It was also a reaction to China’s recent claim that the Yellow Sea and the South
China Sea are part of its core interests.
North Korea denies responsibility for the sinking, and China pretends to remain
neutral. However, the North launched its invasion of the South 60 years ago with
Chinese and Soviet backing, but China covered up its support with lies and has
never admitted or apologized for its backing. How, then, can we possibly believe
China’s denial and profession of neutrality today?
The Korean War should not be forgotten because it was the first war in which the
communist camp tried to expand their influence by force after World War II, and
the free world successfully beat them back. It also marked the beginning of the
Cold War era.
To block the communist expansion, NATO developed an integrated military
structure in Europe and the East Asian region developed the “crescent-shaped”
island chain defense line consisting of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the
Philippines. However, the two were unable to join up and form a single defense
line against communism because China made every effort to co-opt India,
Indonesia, Burma, Pakistan and Ceylon (Sri Lanka). In 1955, China called the
Asian-African Conference in Bandung, Indonesia, to form a third international
force. Meanwhile, China and the Soviet Union were to various degrees inciting
Middle Eastern countries against Western democracies.
After the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin died in 1953, China and the Soviet Union
started to fight for dominance of the international communist movement, and
their discord could not be resolved during the 1960s. Later, the Soviet Union
tried to use the chaos of the Cultural Revolution to tame the arrogant former
Chinese leader Mao Zedong (毛澤東).
This led to the Sino-US cooperation in the 1970s. Finally, the Soviet Union
collapsed in the late 1980s, partially because its national strength was
consumed by the arms race against the US.
The Chinese Communist Party is extremely tricky. After the Cultural Revolution
ended, it pretended to be an ally of the West.
In the 1980s, former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) ordered the party to
keep a low profile, and in the 1990s, then-Chinese leader Jiang Zemin’s (江澤民) US
policy of “increasing trust, reducing trouble, promoting cooperation and
demoting confrontation” duped Western democracies into offering Beijing economic
assistance.
In the 21st century, especially after financial crisis struck in 2008, the true
face of the “Chinese empire,” described by China expert John Tkacik, then
started to gradually show.
For example, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) was overbearing and arrogant
toward US President Barack Obama at an international conference, saying that the
Chinese army would lay down the rules for the US. Eventually, the US Department
of State and the Pentagon gradually synchronized their views on the issue.
China’s toughness did not scare the US, but it did frightened its neighbors, and
South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and India
clearly hoped the US would stay in Asia. Even communist Vietnam hopes so.
As a result of China’s domestic crackdown on Muslims, Middle Eastern countries
have also distanced themselves from China. Mongolia, which shares its southern
border with China, has become a democracy. Former Soviet countries are also
transforming into democracies and they are increasingly cautious about China.
Russia no longer sells advanced weapons to China and the operations of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization have ground to a halt.
China is no longer contained by a crescent-shaped defense line, but it is now
completely surrounded. The only exceptions are Myanmar and Iran, which adopt a
firm anti-US stance. However, the domestic situation in both those countries is
relatively unstable. Today, a new cold war between China and the US has replaced
the old one between the US and the Soviet Union.
China is not unaware of the current international situation and that is why
Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) adviser Zheng Bijian (鄭必堅) has reshaped
China’s “peaceful rise” into “peaceful development.”
However, Jiang and Hu, who both tried to curry favor with the Chinese military
to bolster their power, have spoiled it with luxury and pleasure. In terms of
economic development, totalitarian rule is causing social tensions to increase
steadily. The question is, will the multinational corporations will stand by the
totalitarian rulers for their own economic benefits once China descends into
turmoil?
Although Sun Yat-sen (孫逸仙) was notorious for cooperating with the Russians and
suppressing provincial autonomy, he said in a famous remark that the global
trend toward freedom and democracy was going forward with great strength. Those
who follow the trend will survive; those who do not will perish.
Which side should President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and the Chinese Nationalist Party
(KMT) take? From a long-term perspective, Taiwan’s path is twisted, but our
future remains bright.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in Taipei.
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