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Beware of China¡¦s peace offensive
By Joseph Wu §d°xÀè
Monday, Sep 13, 2010, Page 8
Tension in the West Pacific rose substantially in recent
months when China decided to show its support for North Korea after the sinking
of a South Korean naval ship, while also displaying its territorial ambition
over the South China Sea. The changing regional dynamics and the attitude of the
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government are reason enough to warrant a deeper
look at the developing relations between Taiwan and China because the interests
of many countries in the region may be affected in a fundamental way.
China laid down its road map for resolving the issue of Taiwan on Dec. 31, 2008,
in Chinese President Hu Jintao¡¦s (JÀAÀÜ) six-point statement. It wanted Taiwan to
follow the ¡§one China¡¨ principle to build closer economic and cultural ties, to
be followed by talks of a political nature.
The Chinese model for political settlement is, based on the ¡§one China¡¨
principle, for Taiwan to agree to the talks on the ¡§end of hostility¡¨ before a
peace agreement is negotiated.
When a peace agreement is reached, details of the military confidence building
measures would then be worked out. At the same time, China would provide a
framework for political relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait
before unification would be achieved. Taiwan¡¦s international participation would
also be reasonably arranged by China.
This concept is arrived at from the perspective of China¡¦s ¡§complete
unification,¡¨ which is no other country¡¦s business ¡X these are Hu¡¦s words.
Checking carefully, one finds that there is a serious lack of response from
Taiwan to China¡¦s political road map, not to mention the absence of a counter
proposal. The only official statement was when President Ma Ying-jeou (°¨^¤E)
mentioned in a video conference with the US Center for Strategic and
International Studies in April last year that he found a genuine goodwill in
Hu¡¦s statement. Ma also mentioned several times that a peace agreement would not
be signed before China withdraws its missiles that are targeting Taiwan.
He did not specify the number of missiles that needed to be withdrawn, the
dismantling of the withdrawn missiles or any international oversight of the
missile withdrawal. Of course, a reading of the very passive nature of the Ma
government would imply that it does not object to the Chinese proposal.
Taiwan¡¦s rather passive response to China¡¦s political road map prompts those who
care about Taiwan¡¦s de facto independence to worry that some under-the-table
understanding or agreement has been reached between the two.
This concern is not overstated considering Taiwan¡¦s official response to North
Korea¡¦s reckless action carried similar tones to China¡¦s, which called for all
parties concerned to act rationally and peacefully. It is inconceivable for a
long-term US friend in East Asia to find comfort in speaking in unison with
China, rather than speaking and acting in support of the US.
Peace between Taiwan and China has been desired by the people in this country.
However, in China¡¦s model: The ¡§one China¡¨ principle means Taiwan is part of
China; ending hostility means the two parties of the Chinese Civil War will
become one again; and a peace agreement and confidence building measures mean
the end of Taiwan¡¦s security cooperation with its most important partner ¡X the
US.
This is layer upon layer of bondage compared to Taiwan¡¦s current independent
status. If China¡¦s model for peace is reached, it means Taiwan would be in the
firm hands of China. This would definitely be a serious scenario shaking up the
strategic picture in the region. The most important concept of peace is the
non-existence of acts of war and the lack of the threat of war. Under this
internationally recognized concept, peace between Taiwan and China will only be
reached when China renounces the use of force against Taiwan.
For the moment, Ma is still resisting the pressure from China to enter into
political negotiations for fear of sparking serious domestic dispute. However,
two important factors may affect the dynamics of cross-strait political talks.
One is Hu¡¦s desire to leave a legacy before he steps down as president in March
2013. The other is the consistently low level of popular support for Ma in
Taiwan.
Chinese officials have already increased their call for political talks since
the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The first
factor already seems to be having an effect.
Judging from the series of setbacks for the KMT in the legislative by-elections
and its predictable defeat in the municipality elections, China is likely to
ramp up its support for the KMT in the 2012 presidential election to keep the
¡§China friendly¡¨ Ma in power.
According to some news reports, China is studying the feasibility of withdrawing
some of its missiles in order to rescue Ma¡¦s re-election campaign in exchange
for a quiet agreement for political talks. Ma might get a boost and China would
earn a reputation internationally for making peace.
Ma would be in a very weak position to refuse to enter China¡¦s road map at all,
if he wants to be re-elected. Of course, it would also mean the end of Taiwan¡¦s
security ties with the US.
For China, this would be the stone that killed three birds. However, the
consequence for Taiwan is that it would sink politically into ¡§one China¡¨
without any prospect of reversing the unfortunate situation. It would also
change the regional strategic picture dramatically. Japan worries about this
scenario ¡X with very good reason.
This scenario might take place next summer, when the presidential election heats
up and if Ma¡¦s popular support is still low. Judging from the non-transparent
approach of the KMT and the Chinese governments in handling issues, such as
Taiwan¡¦s participation in the World Health Assembly, military confidence
building measures and other contacts of a political nature, this situation may
materialize ¡X and it would be a nightmare for those who worry about China¡¦s
dominance of the region.
Joseph Wu is a former head of the Mainland Affairs Council and
a research fellow at National Cheng-chi University¡¦s Institute of International
Relations.
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