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November polls and US-Taiwan relations
By Nat Bellocchi 白樂崎
Elections are cominG up this month both in the US and Taiwan. In the US, voters
go to the polls today, while voters in Taiwan will have an opportunity to vote
for the mayors of five special municipalities on Nov. 27.
In both countries the elections are likely to change the political landscape
significantly: In the US, the continuing high unemployment rate and
dissatisfaction with US President Barack Obama’s stimulus packages have led to
the “Tea Party” revolt and a resurgence of the Republican opposition. The
Republicans seem set to regain a majority in the House of Representatives and
may even gain a majority in the Senate.
In Taiwan, the political atmosphere is similarly affected by the continuing high
joblessness rate, but voter dissatisfaction is also driven by concerns that
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration’s opening to China is leaving Taiwan
vulnerable to political pressure from Beijing, which seems determined to push
Taipei into an economic embrace leading to eventual unification.
The pushback against these policies, as well as a strong emphasis on good
governance and local concerns, may lead to a victory for the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) in three or four of the five races, a significant
comeback after its severe losses in the 2008 legislative and presidential
elections.
These elections will thus lead to major changes in the balance of power in both
countries: In the US, the Obama administration will have to deal with a Congress
that is likely to assert its positions much more strongly than the Congress as
presently composed. Past experience has actually shown that it is good for
Taiwan if Congress is controlled by a party that is different from the party in
power in the administration.
In the present situation, if the Republicans win a majority in the House, this
means that Representative Illeana Ros-Lehtinen is likely to become chairperson
of the Foreign Affairs Committee if she is re-elected in her Florida district.
She has been a staunch supporter of Taiwan, urging the US government to move
forward with the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan and criticizing the
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed between the Ma
administration and China as a “Trojan Horse.”
On the Taiwan side, a significant victory by the DPP will mean that the Ma
administration will have to slow down its overtures toward China. It will mean
that the government will have to be more in tune with public opinion on
sensitive issues such as trade and other relations with its giant neighbor. It
will also mean that it needs to take a firmer position in countering China’s
coercive measures, whether it is the continuing missile buildup by China or
brazen moves to force Taiwan to attend the Tokyo International Film Festival
under names that imply that Taiwan is subjugate to China.
So, in the short and medium term the upcoming elections look to benefit
US-Taiwan relations. However, on both sides a lot more needs to be done to bring
all major political forces to work in the direction of the longer-term goal of
normalizing relations between Taiwan and the outside world.
The present policies came into being in the 1970s and do not reflect the
present-day reality that Taiwan is a free and democratic country that deserves a
better deal. Instead of perpetuating the nation’s political isolation, we need
to bring it into the fold, so that Taiwan and its people can play their rightful
role as a member of the international community.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute
in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed
in this article are his own.
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