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China no longer holds the best hand
By Lin Cho-shui 林濁水
Until recently, China had the upper hand in East Asia. It had realized its dream
of becoming the second-biggest economy in the world, and neighboring countries
were becoming more economically dependent on it. Japan and South Korea’s
relations with the US were unsettled, and Taiwan’s government under President Ma
Ying-jeou (馬英九) was showing itself to be pro-China. However, with extreme
nationalism on the rise within China, its neighbors have all started taking
precautionary measures. China has ended the loser in the latest series of
developments.
First, the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan allowed the US to
strengthen its alliance with South Korea. After that, when China and Japan came
to loggerheads over the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台), the US kept to its stance of
upholding the status quo, stating that the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and
Security between the US and Japan acknowledges Japan’s administrative
jurisdiction over the Diaoyutais.
With this one simple move, the US got Japan back on its side. Washington set
itself up as an arbiter between Japan and China and gained for itself from doing
so.
Later, tensions in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN created strains
in US-China relations, and the tensions between these two superpowers in turn
gave ASEAN the opportunity to play the role of peacemaker by holding the ASEAN
defense ministers’ meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus).
Then it was China’s turn to play the role of arbiter. But just as everyone was
applauding China for its fine diplomacy and creating a “celestial order” in East
Asia, Beijing found that it had been outsmarted by the US and ASEAN.
Starting from 2006, the US started building an army-navy joint battle system to
compensate for its aircraft carriers’ vulnerability to missile threats. This,
coupled with the fact that China’s neighbors were taking measures to counteract
Beijing’s power, saw these countries and the US invite each other to take part
in joint military exercises. Even some traditional military allies of China such
as Cambodia and Kazakhstan have joined in these war games.
First came the Malabar war games involving the US, India and Japan in April last
year. Then, last October, the US and India held the Yudh Abhyas military
exercises. That was followed by the Cobra Gold maneuvers involving Thailand and
five other nations in February. In March, the US and South Korea held joint
military exercises. In May, the US, Indonesia and seven other countries held
joint military maneuvers. From June to August, 14 nations took part in the “Rim
of the Pacific Exercise.” After that, the US, Japan and South Korea held their
yearly joint war games. In June, Washington and Seoul held more joint military
exercises.
In June, Cambodia and 25 other nations took part in Angkor Sentinel 2010. In
August, the US and Vietnam held their first ever joint war games. Mongolia’s
annual exercise Khaan Quest was attended by various nations. Then the US and
South Korea held their yearly Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, and lastly, in
September, Kazakhstan and two other nations held joint maneuvers.
This has been infuriating for China, which is convinced that other countries are
stepping up their efforts to encircle and contain it by reforging an “arc of
freedom and prosperity.”
In March, China responded by telling the US that the South China Sea was one of
China’s core interests and that China would adopt an “anti-intervention
strategy” if international powers got involved in the issue.
In July, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton responded by saying that
the dispute over the South China Sea called for international collective
negotiations. Because this went against China’s strategy of dealing with each
country in turn through bilateral negotiations, Chinese Minister of Foreign
Affairs Yang Jiechi (楊潔篪) insisted that disputes in the South China Sea could
only be solved by bilateral talks between the nations concerned, without
interference from other countries or bodies.
With tensions on the rise, last month’s ADMM-Plus talks were expected to be a
showdown between the two sides. However, the meeting unexpectedly saw China call
off the battle. Chinese Major General Wang Haiyun (王海運) opted for a more
face-saving method of “informally clearing things up” and said China had never
stated that it would adopt a “anti-intervention strategy.”
Wang also said that China cared even more than the US about the principles
mentioned by Clinton in relation to the South China Sea, and that earlier
comments about the south China Sea being a core interest for China were just the
opinions of individual academics and not the government’s official stance. Even
demands related to national sovereignty and “core interests” should be solved by
peaceful and friendly negotiations, he said.
After this, Chinese Minister of National Defense Liang Guanglie (梁光烈) no longer
rejected the idea that a “limited” multilateral security structure be adopted to
handle the South China Sea issue. In the end the meeting, which was held in
Hanoi, spurred talks between Chinese and Japanese defense ministers, and
inspired China to invite US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates for a visit. After
the meeting, Gates gave his assurances that the US Army would continue to uphold
peace in East Asia.
In June, General Ma Xiaotian (馬曉天), deputy chief of general staff of the
People’s Liberation Army, proposed that the South China Sea was a core interest
of China. But on Oct. 22 he changed his tune, saying that everyone should have
rights in the South China Sea according to the principle of freedom of
navigation, as enshrined in international law.
China has started to clean up the disadvantageous situation provoked by the
sudden increase in extreme nationalism over the past year. However, jingoism is
easy to start and hard to stop. Reverberations from the Diaoyutais spat are
still being felt. Nationalistic protest marches have been held in many Chinese
cities and could very easily get out of control. Chinese delegates at the Tokyo
International Film Festival even made trouble for the Taiwanese delegation,
leaving the Japanese hosts helpless to intervene except to say that they
supported Taiwan’s continued participation.
China’s hawks are in a hurry to show off its might as a superpower, and they
used to hold all the right cards. However, their plans have backfired and they
are now at a disadvantage at every turn.
Lin Cho-shui is a former Democratic Progressive Party
legislator.
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