20110421 China boosting missile strength: think tank

China boosting missile strength: think tank

TAKING AIM: A former US Department of Defense official said an expansion of Chinese military infrastructure was largely driven by a desire to coerce Taiwan

By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in WASHINGTON

A Washington-based think tank said China was in the process of significantly expanding its ballistic missile infrastructure opposite Taiwan, a development that is occurring despite extensive efforts by US President Barack Obama’s administration to persuade Beijing to scale back the missiles it has aimed at Taiwan.

Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank that focuses on the Asia-Pacific, said the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Second Artillery base is growing rapidly.

The PLA has formed its first unit equipped with anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) systems, and the Second Artillery is investing in a new generation of conventional medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) and is also incorporating two ballistic missile brigades previously under the PLA Army.

In a Web entry published this week, Stokes wrote: “The expansion of the Second Artillery’s infrastructure in Southern and Southeastern China has been driven largely by the PLA’s desire to coerce Taiwan into political settlement on unfavorable terms.”

“The expansion also reflects PLA interest in undercutting the capacity of the United States to assist Taiwan in a conflict against China and enforce other territorial claims around its periphery,” he said.

Stokes, a former US Department of Defense official, says trends suggest that existing short-range ballistic missiles targeting Taiwan could gradually be replaced with MRBM systems with ranges greater than 1,000km.

Extended range ballistic missile systems have higher re-entry speeds that could reduce the effectiveness of Patriot PAC-3 missile defense systems expected to come online in Taiwan over the next few years.

“A relative erosion of Taiwan’s military capabilities could create incentives for Beijing’s political and military leadership to assume greater risk in cross-strait relations,” Stokes wrote.

The “first noteworthy” example of the Second Artillery’s expansion is the apparent deployment of a follow-on variant of the DF-21 MRBM that is capable of engaging moving targets at sea at a range of 1,650km.

All of these new missiles are believed to be at 53 Base, headquartered in Kunming, Yunnan Province and commanded by Major General Zhou Yaning (周亞寧).

“There are indications that two tactical missile brigades under the PLA Army have transferred to the Second Artillery. The Nanjing Military Region’s First Missile Brigade, based in Fujian Province’s Xianyou County, may now be assigned to the Second Artillery’s 52 Base,” Stokes said.

Meanwhile, the Guangzhou Military Region’s Second Missile Brigade, based in Puning City’s Hongyang Village, Guangdong Province, may now be subordinated to 53 Base.

The Second Artillery has also incorporated the brigades’ inventory of unmanned aerial vehicles, which “would be particularly useful in a Taiwan scenario,” he wrote.