|
Unification looms: US
academic
CHANGING PARADIGM: Robert Sutter said that under
the Ma administration, Taiwan’s freedom of action had eroded in the face of the
‘remarkable growth’ of Chinese influence
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in WASHINGTON
Beijing’s economic, military and diplomatic leverage over Taiwan is increasingly
forcing Taipei toward unification with China, a speaker told a conference in
Washington on Monday.
Robert Sutter, a professor at George Washington University, said many people in
Taiwan favored what they “erroneously see” as a “status quo” in which the
administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) enjoys independence of action.
However, in reality, he told the conference at George Washington University’s
the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, Taiwan’s “weak self-strengthening” and a
marked decline in US support for its freedom of action further bound it to
accommodating China.
Sutter said that US allies and friends in Asia — notably Japan — would require
“extraordinary reassurance” that the US government’s encouragement of conditions
leading to the resolution of Taiwan’s future and reunification with China does
not foreshadow a power-shift in the region.
Next year’s presidential election in Taiwan, which could return the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) to power, has the potential to “complicate” the
situation, he said.
However, the new leadership of the DPP would likely follow a much more
“moderate” approach to cross-strait relations than former president Chen
Shui-bian (陳水扁), Sutter said.
Under Ma, Taiwan’s freedom of action had eroded in the face of the “remarkable
growth” of China’s influence, he said.
“Current US policy focuses, on the one hand, on deterring a Chinese attack on
Taiwan, while, on the other hand, sustaining conditions for a peaceful
resolution of the China-Taiwan impasse,” Sutter said.
His remarks were based on an extensive study he has made of Taiwan’s future to
be published soon.
Taipei’s options for dealing with China’s rise were increasingly limited, Sutter
said, adding that Taiwanese leaders seeking greater autonomy may hope to delay
and draw out the unification process, but government decision-makers in Taiwan,
China and the US “seem to be aware” of Taipei’s “eroding position and limited
options.”
China, had strengthened its “negative incentives” by continuing the buildup of
military forces focused on Taiwan, he said.
In addition, Beijing had made few military concessions, despite Ma’s insistence
that China reduce its military pressure.
“An implication drawn by many in China, Taiwan and abroad is that China is
endeavoring to reciprocate Ma’s initiatives by following a gradual process of
reassurance and engagement in the interest of fostering attitudes on the island
opposed to moves toward independence and favorable to closer ties with China,”
Sutter said.
While seeking reductions of Chinese forces targeted at Taiwan, the Ma
administration remained reluctant to take steps to build up Taiwan’s forces or
to work more closely militarily with the US, he said.
The administration of US President Barack Obama finds its interests “best
served” by supporting Ma’s strategy of reassurance and engagement with China and
avoiding steps to support Taiwan “such as the sale of F-16s” that might upset
Beijing.
“The Ma administration came into office pledging to boost defense spending and
military preparedness, but implementation has been slow. The administration has
failed to meet even such basic goals as sustaining a level of defense spending
equivalent to 3 percent of GDP,” Sutter said.
“The United States’ ability to intervene militarily in Taiwan contingencies
remains strong, but the reluctance of US leaders to do so is growing,” he said.
Chinese leaders have focused for decades on building leverage and “eventual
dominance” over Taiwan with the objective or reunification on terms agreeable to
the People’s Republic of China, he said.
Moreover, Obama’s public support for Ma’s cross-strait policies fails to hide
the decline in overall US backing for Taiwan “especially for actions that risk
complicating US-China relations.”
|
