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EDITORIAL: Liang’s
‘olive branch’ is a threat
Addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Sunday, Chinese Minister of
National Defense General Liang Guanglie (梁光烈) struck all the right notes when he
said that China would not become a military threat and would never seek hegemony
or military expansion.
While undoubtedly reassuring, that “solemn pledge” by Beijing to the
international community was, as is often the case with such proclamations by
Chinese officials, more revealing for what it didn’t say.
It is true that China does not have expansionist or imperial designs on its
neighbors in the Western understanding of the term. It does not seek to occupy
other countries or overthrow governments whose policies it finds disagreeable,
nor does it want to impose its own political system on others. In that regard,
Beijing has been consistent in its adherence to the principle of
non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries and Liang’s comments
were a reflection of that policy from the military.
What he did not say, however, is that Beijing’s concept of expansionism differs
from the way it is normally understood and therein lie the seeds of potential
future conflict.
Whereas in the West hegemony uses the state as its reference point, Beijing
thinks in terms of civilizational rights. In other words, attempts to recreate
an unexpurgated historical China cannot, by definition, constitute expansionism,
because that sphere already falls — in Beijing’s view — under its jurisdiction.
It is no secret that the “China” to which Beijing lays claim includes Taiwan,
Tibet, parts of the Himalayas, the South China Sea and other areas, all of which
are contested by other countries. Just as Liang was soothing the diplomats and
security experts gathered in Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam were
accusing China of undermining peace and stability over the Spratly Islands
(南沙群島).
Despite Liang’s claim that China is 20 years behind the US in military
modernization, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has become a force to be
reckoned with in the past decade or so, and one that is perfectly capable of
deterring, if not defeating, intruders in its backyard.
Once we factor in the PLA’s asymmetrical approach to warfare, as well as the
advantage of fighting on its own turf, the idea that China would represent a
formidable challenge to the far more advanced US military is no longer so
far-fetched.
While it is technically true that China does not threaten military expansion, it
nevertheless has the proven capability — and willingness — to strike distant
enemies should its “core” interests be threatened by external forces. In other
words, while Beijing does not regard its claims on Taiwan as expansionistic, it
has all the means to wage war beyond its shores should war break out in the
Taiwan Strait, with targets in Japan or in international waters, for example,
well within range of a rising number of ballistic missiles.
In Beijing’s eyes, its rise does not constitute expansionism because contested
territories all fall under China’s historical jurisdiction, and as long as its
neighbors respect those claims, the region will, indeed, be one of “peace and
prosperity.” However, given that most countries do not agree with those claims,
China will continue to be seen as a rising hegemon and the risk of conflict will
remain undiminished.
That’s the fine print in what otherwise sounded like an olive branch from
China’s top military officer.
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