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Safeguarding Taiwan’s
freedom
By Li Thian-hok 李天福
According to Chinese jurist and writer Yuan Hongbing (袁紅冰) in “The Taiwan
Crisis: China’s Plan to Annex Taiwan Without a Battle by 2012,” former paramount
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) drafted a secret political will before his
death in which he focused on Taiwan. The most crucial section reads: “Advocates
of freedom in the bourgeois class ... are itching to follow the so-called
‘Taiwan experience’... Settling the Taiwan problem directly affects the
existence of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] and socialism in China ... The
Taiwanese problem must be resolved by the end of Comrade Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤)
second term. Do not go beyond 2012. I hope that the 18th Party Congress will
also be able to celebrate solving the Taiwan problem.”
In February 2008, the CCP held a joint meeting of the Political Bureau and the
Central Military Commission at a strategic command center deep within a cavern
in Beijing’s Xi Shan District. At this event Hu presented a top secret report
about China’s historical mission. Here are some excerpts: “Historically, the
West used battleships and opium to colonize China. Now the roles are reversed.
We will seize the opportunity that capitalism’s economic crisis has presented us
with. Through the opening-up policy, we will gradually make them Socialist
China’s economic and cultural colonies ... Ultimately, we must free all of
mankind through communism ... Solving the Taiwan problem is the first step we
must take to fulfill our mission ... if we do not end the Taiwan problem,
opposition activities attempting to topple our socialist government within and
outside the country will run rampant ... Hence, quickly resolving the Taiwan
problem is essential to keeping Socialism in China alive and to keeping the
party in power.”
Hu’s term of office ends at the end of this year and as such he has a great
incentive to achieve the annexation of Taiwan by then, to glorify his legacy.
His chances look good, too, since the military balance across the Taiwan Strait
has clearly shifted in favor of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and
Taiwan’s economic dependence on China has increased dramatically under the aegis
of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration. Beijing is pressing the
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to start political talks on how to implement
unification.
Many Taiwanese who favor preserving Taiwan’s democracy and its de facto
independence from China hang their hope on a victory by the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) in January’s presidential election. A DPP victory is
indispensable to Taiwan’s freedom, because a defeat would be regarded as an
endorsement from a majority of voters of the KMT’s unification agenda. However,
a victory by the DPP, while necessary, would not be sufficient to preserve the
“status quo.” The KMT could still sign a peace accord with Beijing between
January and May next year, thus formally surrendering to the PRC. If a
victorious DPP refuses to honor the accord China could launch a military assault
on Taiwan to coerce capitulation.
What happens then would depend on how the US reacts. Recently there have been
debates among US academics and retired officials about whether to abandon Taiwan
(to remove a thorn in the side of better US-China relations) and even whether to
retreat from Asia and to protect the US homeland through “offshore balancing”
(withdrawing the forward deployed forces from East Asia and revoking alliances).
It is, therefore, reassuring that US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
emphasized the US commitment to maintain a robust military presence in Asia at a
meeting with Asian defense ministers and military commanders in Singapore on
June 4.
Even in the face of constraints on military spending, Gates said the US would
find money for “air superiority and mobility, long-range strike capability,
nuclear deterrence, maritime access, space and cyberspace, and intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance, ... [to] address ... the prospect that new and
disruptive technologies and weapons could be employed to deny US forces access
to key sea routes and lines of communications.”
Supporting and cooperating with Japan and South Korea to maintain the peace and
stability of East Asia is essential to the US military, economic and diplomatic
presence in the region, but can this goal be achieved without preserving the
“status quo” in Taiwan? As seen above, Beijing sees the conquest of Taiwan as
the first step in its hegemony over Asia and ultimately dominance of the whole
world.
Assuming that Washington has the wisdom to realize the importance of Taiwan’s
freedom to peace and stability in East Asia and ultimately to the security of
the US, what can the administration of US President Barack Obama do to preserve
Taiwan’s de facto independence from the PRC?
First, the US should make clear its position that the so-called Republic of
China (ROC) government on Taiwan has no legitimate claim to sovereignty over
Taiwan and the Pescadores. The legal status of these islands is still in
abeyance. In the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty, Japan gave up its title to
Taiwan, but did not state to who the territories were ceded.
Some people argue that because the Taiwanese elect the President of the ROC
directly, the ROC has gained sovereignty over Taiwan. This is not the case. The
ROC is an exiled government of China, which is now ruled by the PRC government.
What the Taiwanese voters confer on the ROC president is merely the power to
administer the affairs of the island, not the authority to determine the legal
status of Taiwan. That authority resides with the people of Taiwan, under the
universally accepted principle of self--determination. So a referendum on the
future of Taiwan cannot be conducted by the ROC government, under a law of its
creation. The ROC is an alien government, imposed on the Taiwanese by coercion,
including a 38-year period of martial law. The democratization of the island has
not changed that fact.
Second, Washington should reiterate its policy that the future of Taiwan must be
resolved peacefully and with the express assent of the Taiwanese people. To this
end, the US needs to consider organizing a consortium of disinterested nations
to conduct and supervise a referendum so Taiwanese can freely choose their
destiny without any domestic or outside pressure. The US has a moral obligation
to intercede in this fashion because it was the US which liberated Taiwan from
Japanese colonization in 1945.
Third, the Obama administration should work with the US Congress to speed up the
sale of F-16C/D aircraft and other weapons useful in resisting a PLA invasion of
Taiwan. Approval of such weapons sales may not help to prevent Taiwan’s fall, if
the KMT chooses to surrender Taiwan before the end of next year. However, such
action will send a message to Beijing that Washington intends to abide by the
Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and that the US has decided not to let the 23 million
Taiwanese people fall under the CCP’s repressive rule. It will also boost the
morale of the Taiwanese to continue fighting for their freedom.
Fourth, Washington should initiate high level contacts between the militaries of
the US and Taiwan, to boost Taiwan’s morale and readiness and to help counter
any subversive activities within Taiwan. Such exchanges could include port calls
by US Navy ships.
Lastly, bolstering the US military presence in the Western Pacific (as mandated
by the TRA and recommended by the US secretary of defense) should anticipate
potential Taiwan contingencies.
Both Deng and Hu grasp the political and strategic value of Taiwan to China’s
expansionist ambitions. Hopefully, US leaders will also recognize the importance
of Taiwan to the US standing in the world and will adopt timely measures to
forestall a geostrategic disaster for the US.
Li Thian-hok is a distinguished fellow of the International Assessment and
Strategy Center in Washington.
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