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EDITORIAL:
Attributing blame for the F-16 fiasco
“We are so disappointed in the United States,” a Taiwanese defense official said
over the weekend, reacting to confirmation that Taipei would not be sold the
F-16C/D aircraft it has been seeking from the US since 2007.
While the sense of disappointment with Washington is perfectly understandable,
another actor in the saga deserves equal condemnation, if not more: the Chinese
Nationalist Party (KMT). It was the KMT, enjoying a majority in the legislature
during then--president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) administration, that blocked the
budgets that would have allowed Taiwan to continue modernizing its armed forces.
Two possible scenarios present themselves here. Either the KMT undermined
Taiwan’s defense apparatus as part of a plan to demonstrate, when it regained
office in 2008, that it was stronger on defense than its predecessor, only to be
caught wrong-footed when the backlog reached more than US$12 billion. Or it knew
all along that this would happen and proceeded by orchestrating a gradual
erosion of the nation’s deterrent capability.
Either way, the end result is the same. Taiwan today finds itself in a very
difficult position when it comes to its ability to defend itself against
aggression from China.
Try as it might to signal strength and determination by talking about Taiwan’s
new “aircraft carrier killer,” the fact is, advanced fighter aircraft remain a
key component of national defense. Now that the Air Force will not be getting
the 66 F-16C/Ds — which were intended to replace F-5s and Mirage 2000s that need
to be decommissioned — not only will the force not be comprised of more modern
aircraft, but it will have to be reduced in size, unless the nearly obsolete
aircraft are kept in service.
When it comes to countering a Chinese attack, both qualitative and quantitative
elements in the armed forces are important. As the opening round of a Chinese
invasion would likely involve a missile attack against the country’s air bases,
fewer aircraft to start with means fewer will survive an attack and be available
for operations over the Taiwan Strait.
On the qualitative side, rumors that only one of the two wings of ageing
F-16A/Bs are to be modernized also means that nearly half of what remains of the
nation’s most advanced combat aircraft will very soon fall far behind the new
models of aircraft being developed and deployed by the People’s Liberation Army
Air Force (PLAAF). By some accounts, the PLAAF could have close to 1,000 3+, 4th
and 4+ generation fighters and up to two 5th generation fighters entering
production.
For the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) inept
handling of the arms sales issue presents an opportunity as the two parties head
into January’s presidential and legislative elections. This will be a chance for
DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and her advisers to show that Ma’s “flexible”
China policy and claim to better ties with the US have failed miserably. This
will require more than recrimination, however, and the DPP camp will have to
come up with viable alternatives for national defense, or a proposed change in
approach with Washington.
Conversely, if the second scenario — that of a planned weakening of the military
by the KMT — applies, this new situation could also provide the KMT with
ammunition against the DPP. It could claim that because of US intransigence, a
weakened Taiwan would be at greater risk under the DPP and that Taipei is left
with little choice but to seek even closer relations with Beijing to avoid war.
Ironically for the US, the decision not to provide Taiwan with the weapons it
needs to defend itself makes it more likely that in the event of war in the
Taiwan Strait, it would have to send troops to defend the small democracy.
Unless, of course, Washington has given up its role as a champion of liberty.
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