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ANALYSIS: US ‘no’ on
arms sale seen as sign of China’s clout
SHIFTING POWER Washington’s decision has been
described as a slap in the face to a strong ally and is seen as an indication of
China’s economic leverage over the US
By Peter Enav / AP, TAIPEI
A US decision not to sell Taiwan new F-16C/D fighter jets is being seen by many
US allies in Asia as a sign of China’s growing clout.
The pre-eminent military power in East Asia for 50 years, the US has explicitly
and implicitly provided a security umbrella for countries from Singapore to
Japan, helping to keep the peace that has fostered stunning economic growth.
While few of these allies believe the US is lessening its commitment to the
region, they still see Washington’s refusal to make the F-16C/D aircraft sale,
which was made public on Wednesday, as showing a new deference to Chinese
interests.
China is a “big factor ... that can’t be discounted,” Philippine Defense
Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said. “All things are always considered in a decision
and China is a world player now.”
The top US diplomat for East Asia, Kurt Campbell, publicly confirmed in New York
on Wednesday that the administration of US President Barack Obama will upgrade
Taiwan’s existing fleet of F-16A/Bs, postponing for now the sale of the new
models that Taipei sought.
The decision brought a swift, angry denunciation from Beijing, where Vice
Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun (張志軍) summoned US Ambassador Gary Locke to warn
that exchanges between the militaries, security cooperation and overall ties
will suffer.
After reducing its footprint in East Asia during the administration of former US
president George W. Bush, the US began pushing back last year. US Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton offered strong support to Asian allies in response
to their unease about a more assertive Chinese naval posture in the South China
Sea, and the US military conducted high-profile drills with Japan and South
Korea.
However, doubts about US staying power in the region persist, and Washington’s
refusal to sell the new F-16C/Ds to Taiwan could serve to deepen them.
Admittedly, Taiwan is not a typical case when it comes to security assistance
from the US and most other countries, but Taiwan’s defense ties with the US
still run deep.
Taiwan hosted US troops for decades under the terms of a security pact that
lapsed only after the US shifted its recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
And since then, Washington has remained bound by a Congressional mandate to sell
Taiwan weapons to help defend itself against the attack that China threatens if
Taipei moves to make its de facto independence permanent.
The complexity of this relationship helps explain the intense Washington
reaction that was engendered by the Obama -administration’s decision on the
fighter planes, which denied Taiwan the 66 new F-16C/Ds it long coveted, while
permitting it a series of upgrades on its existing fleet of F-16A/Bs.
Supporters of the decision regarded it as a Solomonic compromise, taking account
of Taiwan’s defense needs — particularly its growing air power gap with China —
while also safeguarding the integrity of the US’ increasingly important
relationship with Beijing.
However, critics blasted the decision as a sellout of a democratic bastion and
long-standing security partner, and a move that could even rattle Asian
partners’ confidence in US commitments.
Even before news of the decision became final, Republican Senator John Cornyn of
Texas, where the Lockheed Martin plant that would have built the new F-16C/Ds is
located, described it as a slap in the face to a strong ally, and Howard Berman,
the ranking Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee,
called it a “half-measure.”
In Asia, it is seen as yet another example of China’s growing military and
economic power.
Gazmin saw the move primarily as the result of Washington’s limited options in
the face of China’s significant holdings of US Treasuries, and the threat that
poses to US fiscal stability.
“It has a large debt and if China will try to apply pressure, the US can end up
in trouble,” he said. “The US has to temper its relations with Taiwan for
China.”
However, Gazmin rejected the notion that Washington’s decision could point to an
eventual unwinding of its long-standing security ties with the Philippines,
which include close cooperation in fighting Muslim insurgents in the southern
part of the country.
“We have a separate, special relationship with the US that’s different from its
relations with Taiwan,” he said. “The US ties with Taiwan [are] different from
ours and other countries, the dynamics are different.”
China expert Lee Chang-hyung, of Seoul’s government-affiliated Korea Institute
for Defense Analyses, also saw the US decision to deny Taiwan new F-16C/Ds as
reflecting China’s economic leverage in Washington.
“If it sells the fighter jets to Taiwan, it could sustain some big economic
damage,” he said. “I think the United States has taken that factor into
account.”
Lee said China’s meteoric rise — underlined by its rapidly expanding military
and its lightning economic growth — has prompted some South Koreans to conclude
that Seoul’s best interests lie in downgrading its decades-old security alliance
with the US in favor of closer ties with Beijing.
However, he rejected that approach, in part because he believes China is still
dozens of years away from catching up with the US militarily.
“We have to maintain and bolster the alliance with the United States — which is
far away from us — while expanding and improving exchanges with China — which is
close to us,” he said.
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