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Beware integration
trap, expert says
WARNING: Continual integration of cross-strait
relations could give Beijing greater influence over Taiwan, said Brad Glosserman,
an expert at a Washington think tank
By Nadia Tsao / Staff Reporter in Washington
Despite a good cross-strait relationship, Taiwan in the short run is anxious
about the upcoming elections and in the long run is concerned about the
respective rise and decline of China and the USˇ¦ influence on the country, said
Brad Glosserman, the executive director of the Pacific Forum at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank on foreign
policy.
He added that all of Asia is beginning to worry that ˇ§the balance of power in
the region is shifting in Chinaˇ¦s favor.ˇ¨
Glosserman said in his recent writings that while the possibility of the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) coming to power again has some people
worried, it does not mean that those who are worried favor the Chinese
Nationalist Party (KMT).
In the long term, Chinaˇ¦s growth as well as developments in the cross-strait
relationship have deepened Taiwanˇ¦s fear of being absorbed by China, Glosserman
said.
He added that although the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement
(ECFA) has bolstered Taiwanˇ¦s economy and made Taiwan a portal through which the
world could enter China, ˇ§continual integration [of cross-strait relations]
could turn that bridge into a trap, giving Beijing too much leverage and
influence over Taiwan.ˇ¨
Analysts in Beijing have already said that if the DPP is elected into office
next year there is a possibility that Beijing could put the screws on the
benefits it affords Taiwan, Glosserman said.
ˇ§Rising Chinese influence is the counterpoint to a perception of shrinking US
power and influence,ˇ¨ Glosserman said, adding that Taiwan is worried that such a
decline might prompt Washington to trade Taiwan for better Sino-US relations.
These worries have been heard in other parts of the world too, he added.
Since the start of the financial meltdown, the worry that Taiwan would be cast
aside by the US also permeates Asia. Officials are concerned that financial
factors would cause the US to decrease its military presence in Asia and
subsequently tone down its promise of protection to its allies in the region,
Glosserman said.
However, Glosserman does not agree that the US is on the decline, adding that as
China grows stronger, so will the US, and the US would never decrease its
military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
The USˇ¦ allies should more actively convey to Washington their desire for a
continued US presence in Asia and further strengthen their ties with the US,
Glosserman said.
He added that everyone in the region should further strengthen the
acknowledgement that they all share the burden of regional peace and security.
In order to correct the myth of a shift in Sino-US power in Asia, there should
be practical evaluations of the two nationsˇ¦ power, listing their assets and
capabilities, Glosserman said.
Such a process would be able to turn the tide on the perception that the US is
on the decline that has taken root both in the US and in Taiwan, Glosserman
said.
Translated by Jake Chung, Staff Writer
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