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2012 ELECTIONS:
ANALYSIS: Ma rattles hornets’ nest with talk of peace pact
By Amber Wang / AFP, with Staff Writer
A call by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) for a peace treaty with China, made as he
campaigns for re-election, has drawn a stormy response and may fail to either
win votes or curry favor with Beijing, analysts say.
Ma, who is seeking a second term in January’s election, created shockwaves when
he said a week ago that Taiwan should consider signing a peace treaty with
China.
The high-risk strategy, which critics slammed as “surrender and unification” in
disguise, already looks to have backfired, illustrating Ma’s dilemma in trying
to push a Beijing-friendly agenda without alienating domestic opinion.
“He unnecessarily creates suspicion about what he wants and gives the opposition
a chance to accuse him of selling out Taiwan,” said George Tsai (蔡瑋), a
political scientist at the Chinese Culture University in Taipei.
Ma may have believed the idea of a peace treaty within the next decade would
help win over voters pining for a future liberated from the fear of sudden
aggression from across the Taiwan Strait.
However, concerns in Taiwan that a peace pact could pull the nation irredeemably
into Beijing’s sphere of influence might force him to attach so many conditions
to the agreement that the Chinese authorities would lose interest.
The Chinese-language Apple Daily predicted that the peace treaty would “define”
the Jan. 14 presidential elections.
“The risk associated with a political agreement is too high and the impact too
huge,” it said in a commentary. “Voters should vote for Ma if they think Taiwan
should enter political negotiations with China. They should not vote for him if
they think it is too rash or too risky, because he will do it in his second
term.”
Ma has repeatedly sought to assure voters in recent days, first saying a peace
pact is not tantamount to a unification treaty and emphasizing that it would
only be signed if it were approved in a public referendum.
He was elected in 2008 on a platform of boosting the economy, and his first term
has been focused on economic exchanges with China, based on the philosophy that
trade and investment are less contentious issues than political talks.
However, speculation has been ripe that he would enter into more dangerous
political territory in a second term as he seeks to establish his legacy, and a
peace treaty might be considered the least risky way of doing that.
Even so, some analysts caution that the issue might not do him much good in the
tight race against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen
(蔡英文).
Taiwan’s opposition has reacted furiously to the peace treaty, accusing Ma of
leading the nation down the road to unification with China.
“He is risking our country’s future for the sake of his campaign and pushing
Taiwanese people into political danger,” Tsai said. “We urge Ma to notice that
this proposal will hurt Taiwan’s sovereignty and interests.”
Observers have seen a peace treaty as a remote prospect because it would involve
difficult questions such as who should sign the agreement on either side and
complex sovereignty issues.
Analysts say the “status quo” is the preferred option for the Chinese Communist
Party’s rulers, who, while resisting Taiwanese independence, fear early
unification with Taiwan would be a severe challenge to their one-party control.
“A peace treaty is a valid issue, but I don’t think Ma is ready for it yet as he
is backtracking after the criticism from the opposition,” said Wuer Kaixi
(吾爾開希), a former leader of the 1989 Tiananmen protests.
“There’s only a very slim chance that the peace treaty with China will be signed
as it might change the ‘status quo’ and not be in China’s political interests,”
said Wuer, now a political commentator based in Taipei.
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