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2012 ELECTIONS: US
media start paying attention to election
BEIJING INDECISION: Newspapers in the US
reported that Chinese officials did not know how to respond to Ma’s plummeting
support rates and Tsai’s popularity
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in Washington
The US media is starting to pay more attention to Taiwan’s upcoming presidential
election after largely ignoring the campaign.
On Friday, the Washington Post reported that the closeness of the election race
had become an “unexpected cause for alarm” in Beijing.
The Christian Science Monitor said President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) proposal for a
peace accord with China had set him back in the polls as it kindled fears of an
unwanted change in the “status quo.”
According to the Post, Ma had been hurt by the perception that he was moving
“too close too quickly to the Communist government.”
In a story written by Keith Richburg in Beijing, the newspaper said: “While
clearly concerned about the turn of events, Beijing’s authorities seem uncertain
how to respond.”
It said that Chinese leaders and others in China had made obvious their dislike
for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen
(蔡英文), who also serves as chairperson of the DPP.
“But they [Chinese leaders] also fear that any blatant interference might create
a backlash among Taiwanese voters,” the Post said. “That means it is unlikely,
in the view of analysts, that China would stage a repeat of the provocative
missile tests or the 2000 warning by [then] Chinese premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基),
who bluntly cautioned Taiwanese not to ‘vote impulsively.’”
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 23 that the election was
widely viewed as a referendum on Ma’s efforts to thaw relations with China —
policies much favored by Washington.
“Analysts said US officials might look for small ways to help Ma, such as
quickening continuing efforts to drop Taiwan visa requirements for visits to the
US, while trying to keep from appearing to meddle in the island’s domestic
affairs,” the Journal said.
The Post said that for the moment, China’s main response to Tsai’s climb in the
polls appeared to be a kind of regional “get out the vote” effort on Ma’s behalf
by encouraging some of the estimated 1 million Taiwanese living in China to
return home to cast their ballots, presumably for Ma.
The story said that some officials and government-affiliated academics had been
quietly warning of the “calamities” that might ensue if Tsai were elected.
And several analysts said a victory by Tsai would mark a personal setback to
Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) “who has made improving relations with Taiwan
a key part of his legacy.”
Jin Canrong (金燦榮), a professor of international studies at Bejing’s Renmin
University, told the Post: “The top leaders don’t want to see any difficulties
happening on cross-strait relationships since their term is ending.”
“Though they want to do something to influence the ballot, they dare not do
anything, because they’re afraid it will backfire,” Jin said.
Jin added that the only beneficiary of increased tension across the Strait would
be the People’s Liberation Army, which could see its budget increase along with
the likelihood of renewed confrontation.
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