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China issue
constantly looming in background
By Nat Bellocchi 白樂崎
In the present election campaign, Taiwanese are mainly focused on issues that
concern their daily well-being — the economy, jobs, good governance, etc.
However, the China factor continues to loom in the background. At issue is who
can handle relations with China better.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has followed a policy of rapprochement, which in
his view has brought about closer bilateral relations with China, especially in
the economic area, and he prides himself on “reducing tensions.”
Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has
argued that Ma has gone too far, too fast, and that this has undermined Taiwan’s
sovereignty and democracy. She is advocating that Taiwan rebalances its
international relations, drawing closer to fellow democracies, such as Japan and
the US.
As I have previously stated, the present policies have not really reduced
tension, but they have created a temporary lull as the leaders in Beijing feel
that Taiwan is moving into China’s orbit. There has not really been any
substantial change in the attitudes of the leaders in Beijing — they still
threaten Taiwan with military might.
How does one get out of this stalemate? How could there really be a change in
attitudes in Beijing?
If the political landscape in Taiwan remains the same, this would reinforce
attitudes in Beijing — strong-arm tactics combined with an economic carrot seem
to work and China’s leaders would feel justified in their policies. It would
strengthen the present rather repressive regime.
The result would be that China would continue to draw Taiwan closer, with a more
intertwined economy and the start of political moves. China would change Taiwan
in its direction.
However, if there is a dramatic change in the political landscape resulting in a
change of government, then the Chinese will see right on their doorstep that
people can change their government through democratic means. It would be a
powerful example of what democracy is all about and it would be an inspiration
for people all over China to redouble their efforts in the direction of
democracy.
The result would be that Taiwan would change China. The democratic process in
Taiwan would be a beacon for people in China who long for more freedom and human
rights.
The autocratic rulers in Beijing will, of course, not like it and they may
artificially create new tensions, threaten Taiwan or urge the US to pressure
Taiwan. Here is where the US will need to stick to its basic principles and be
fully supportive of Taiwan.
There have been some reports saying that the administration of US President
Barack Obama has a “clear preference” for Ma over Tsai. Bonnie Glaser of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies said something along those lines
in a recent article.
This is simply incorrect. The US government has made it very clear that it does
not believe any one party or leader in Taiwan has a monopoly on effective
management of the US-Taiwan relationship, that it does not take sides in
elections and that it will work closely with whatever leadership emerges from
Taiwan’s free and fair elections.
If the Obama administration has a longer term vision for peace and stability in
East Asia, it will actually be more supportive of those in Taiwan who work to
strengthen freedom and democracy in the country. The example of another change
of government in Taipei would indeed help push China in the right direction and
bring about a much-needed change in the attitudes of the rulers in Beijing.
Nat Bellocchi served as chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan from 1990
through 1995. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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