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2012 ELECTIONS: Site
voices regret over the closure of election exchanges
MISUNDERSTOOD: The Web site issued a statement
saying that the CEC had failed to understand the difference between market
research and opinion polls
By Wang Pei-hua / Staff Reporter, with Staff Writer
Web site xfuture.org, an electronic exchange at the Center for Prediction
Markets at National Chengchi University, has voiced regret that the Central
Election Commission (CEC) decided that the online prediction market constitutes
an opinion poll and hence is barred from running election-related exchanges in
the run-up to the Jan. 14 elections.
According to the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act
(總統副總統選舉罷免法) and the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act (公職人員選罷法), political
parties and individuals are not allowed to publish opinion poll results for
presidential, vice presidential and legislative candidates in the 10 days
leading up to election day. Violators face fines of between NT$500,000
(US$16,500) and NT$5 million.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant
to reflect the likelihood of future events. Virtual bids may be made on events,
with the bidding price reflecting its probability.
Central Election Commission Secretary-General Teng Tien-yu (鄧天祐) said on Tuesday
that according to the interpretation of what constitutes an opinion poll passed
by the commission, any kind of publication of a compilation of public opinion
about a candidate or the elections constitutes an opinion poll according to the
regulations in the two laws, regardless of how the information is compiled.
The Web site later issued a statement expressing regret over Teng’s remarks,
adding that the commission had misunderstood the two acts and completely failed
to understand the difference between market research methods and opinion polls.
“If this definition is used, then should every media outlet that’s compiling and
reporting on information about public opinion about the candidates or the
elections be told to stop as well?” the statement said.
However, out of respect for the commission, the nation’s highest election
authority, the Web site said it had stopped trading in the elections on the
prediction market as of 5pm on Tuesday.
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