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Waking from the
hamster wheel
By Michael Danielsen
President Ma Ying-jeou (°¨^¤E) has started his second term as president of the
Republic of China (ROC) running in a hamster wheel. He keeps his eyes fixed on
the so-called ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ while the rest of the world moves on, knowing
that the ROC will never rule China. Rather, Beijing and the international
community are working so that the ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ leads to Taiwan becoming a
part of China. The question is if Ma will ever awake from his hamster wheel.
According to international media, the country is moving closer to China and
international observers get the impression that Taiwan is moving toward de facto
unification. That view is supported by economic logic, the Chinese Nationalist
Party¡¦s (KMT) promotion of a ¡§Chinese national identity policy¡¨ at home and
abroad, and the embrace of the non-existent ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ by the KMT
government, which directly states that Taiwan is part of China.
As a result, Taiwan will probably be further isolated and continue its
China-leaning policies.
Over the past four years, this has been the case in the WHO. Taiwan has reduced
its participation in international health work and accepted a Chinese veto on
its observer status. In addition, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)
has reduced the nation¡¦s international trade status because the agreement was
not signed based on Taiwan¡¦s position as a WTO member.
These policies may not hurt the nation¡¦s economic performance over the coming
few years and thereby benefit the opposition. On the contrary, the presidential
election in 2016 risks becoming an even greater challenge for the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP). During the Jan. 14 presidential and legislative
elections, the DPP promoted the much-needed ¡§Taiwan consensus¡¨ as an alternative
for dealing with China.
If the KMT and the DPP could work together on China policy, the Taiwan consensus
could have provided an improved mechanism to safeguard and strengthen the
nation¡¦s position.
However, in order to win the next presidential election, the DPP must produce
more concrete policy positions, for instance on how the birth of a cross-strait
common market could benefit or hurt Taiwan.
The KMT proposed a common market before the 2008 election. As Ma will seek to
write history in his second term and possibly accommodate China, the time for
the creation of a cross-strait common market seems ripe from Ma¡¦s and China¡¦s
points of view.
The idea appears to be an easy sell. The KMT government will argue that the
common market is purely economic in nature and has no political ramifications.
Additionally, the KMT can argue that it is good for peace and a necessity for
prosperity.
The common market cannot be fully implemented within a few years, but a slow
start, as was the case with the EU, may be achievable. In a number of areas, a
common market could be started, such as in the electronics industry. We may see
new integrated circuit (IC) cards for Taiwanese entering China, and Taiwan may
be afforded increased participation in international activities, with a Chinese
veto.
The KMT will seek to establish the common market on the naive thinking that
China and Taiwan are equals, based on the ¡§1992 consensus,¡¨ but the ¡§1992
consensus¡¨ is an empty house, a sinking ship for Taiwan. No sober politician
with elementary school knowledge of Taiwan¡¦s position in the world would agree
that the ROC has the right to rule the People¡¦s Republic of China (PRC), Tibet
and Mongolia, as is maintained by the KMT government.
A reality check shows that the ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ implies that Taiwan is part of
the PRC, and that the common market will be considered under the ¡§one country,
two systems¡¨ framework by the international community. Policy statements lose
any meaning if the ¡§1992 consensus¡¨ is considered as an empty phrase in order to
accommodate China.
Consequently, the KMT will get full backing from China, the US and Europe, and
the fear of a negative Chinese reaction to a DPP victory in 2016 will add
pressure Taiwanese to make the ¡§right¡¨ choice. The KMT¡¦s massive campaign funds
will again ensure an efficient election campaign. We will very likely see yet
another ¡§mostly free and partly unfair¡¨ election in Taiwan, as the International
Committee for Fair Elections in Taiwan labeled the Jan. 14 elections.
If China¡¦s economic success continues, the only hope to save the nation is
strong and unwavering support for democratic consolidation and in elections free
from external interference.
Yes, Ma will continue running in his hamster wheel for the next few years.
However, he runs the risk of having a stick poked in the wheel that will reveal
the unsustainable nature of his own policies, because the vast majority of
Taiwanese want independence and have no ambition to be a part of China in any
form.
The KMT will hopefully wake up and realize that a Taiwan consensus is central to
Taiwan¡¦s survival.
Michael Danielsen is chairman of Taiwan Corner.
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