EDITORIAL: Regional
arms race is heating up
Beijing might not like it, but its growing military power has sparked a new arms
race in Asia, a development that could have devastating effects if cool heads do
not prevail.
Try as it might to convince its neighbors and the international community that
its ¡§rise¡¨ is peaceful, the emergence of a new regional power that threatens to
shake up the ¡§status quo¡¨ inevitably creates diplomatic tensions. The fact that,
for the first time in decades, a regional power could compete for influence with
the US, whose navy has played a stabilizing role in the region since World War
II, is creating a new paradigm that, in turn, is forcing the region to prepare
for the unknown, if not the worst.
Natural fears of the unknown notwithstanding, Beijing has also exacerbated
apprehensions with occasional rhetoric on its territorial claims in the South
China Sea and to islets in the East China Sea ¡X not to mention Taiwan. Making
matters worse is the continued lack of transparency regarding the actual budget
for the People¡¦s Liberation Army (PLA), which has led to wild speculation as to
the actual figures. Just this week, research group IHS Jane¡¦s was claiming that
China¡¦s military budget could double from its current level to US$238.2 billion
by 2015.
Whether that figure is on the mark or inflated, as some China watchers have
already said, is of little consequence as it reflects the sense of unease that
is descending upon the region.
Amid all this, the US announced earlier this year that it was ¡§returning¡¨ to
Asia, a clear sign that China is now regarded as a strategic priority by
Washington. This move is also indicative of a realization by officials in the
administration of US President Barack Obama that an absent US in the
Asia-Pacific region could lead to even larger weapons stockpiles. Rather than
see such a scenario become reality, Washington has had little choice but to
strengthen its security guarantees to allies in the region.
Despite those signals from the US, countries in Asia are uncertain as to the
lasting power of Washington¡¦s renewed commitment. As a result, Vietnam has
embarked on an unprecedented naval modernization program, while the Philippines
is mulling arms acquisitions and defense partnerships with other Asian
countries, most notably South Korea.
If this continues, the region will see more frigates, attack boats, submarines
and military aircraft navigating the skies and the seas, increasing the risk of
accidents, heightening tensions and ensuring greater devastation should the
budding cold war turn hot.
Perhaps even more significantly, Japan earlier this week said it would revise
longstanding regulations barring the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
from engaging in non-peaceful activity. With the removal of that clause, JAXA
will be able to engage in work related to national defense ¡X which can only lead
to one outcome: The militarization of outer space, which, despite the best
intentions, the UN General Assembly will likely be unable to prevent.
China has already taken a regional lead in that aspect and, denials aside, there
is little reason to doubt that some of the devices in its satellite
constellations are serving military purposes. In 2007, the PLA also demonstrated
the ability to shoot down satellites in outer space, a breakthrough that
evidently alarmed the US and other regional powers.
All of this is probably inevitable, as a modernizing China with growing economic
clout and budding global ambitions will naturally modernize its military. What
this means for all of us is that the period of relative calm in the region ¡X the
Korean and Vietnam wars aside ¡X since the end of World War II might be over.
More than ever, the onus will be on state leaders, elected or otherwise, and
diplomats to ensure that the region continues to prosper. However, judging by
previous cases of emerging powers and their impact on the international order,
guarded optimism is probably the best one can summon.
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