Taiwan drove growth
of PLA: report
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in Washington, and AFP
A potential attack on Taiwan has been a ¡§motivating factor¡¨ behind China¡¦s
military modernization, a new report from the US-China Economic and Security
Review Commission says.
The report cites the development of four major Chinese weapons systems:
Yuan-class diesel-electric attack submarines, SC-19 anti-satellite systems,
Dongfeng-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles and Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter
aircraft.
¡§China¡¦s military priority since the early to mid 1990s has been to maintain a
strategic advantage over Taiwan¡¦s military forces and ¡X if it should ever feel
compelled to initiate military operations against Taiwan ¡X in deterring and
countering any US intervention,¡¨ it says.
¡§This driver for PLA [People¡¦s Liberation Army] force modernization was given
particular impetus following the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1996,¡¨ the report adds.
In this crisis, the report says, the PLA brass was ¡§humiliated¡¨ by the dispatch
of US Navy aircraft carriers to the vicinity of Taiwan in reaction to PLA
saber-rattling exercises that were intended to ¡§intimidate Taiwan¡¦s populace in
the midst of island-wide elections.¡¨
Titled Indigenous Weapons Development in China¡¦s Military Modernization, the
report concludes that the 1996 incident ¡§catalyzed investment in the long-term
modernization and professionalization of China¡¦s armed forces.¡¨
It adds that as a result of the Taiwan Strait Crisis, the PLA accelerated its
efforts to acquire modern submarines, missiles and third and fourth-generation
aircraft ¡§that could keep American forces at bay.¡¨
The report says that the development of the anti-ship ballistic missile could be
especially important because it is designed to target US aircraft carriers and
that anti-satellite weapons are also a priority in a Taiwan contingency.
The report says that the US has underestimated the growth of China¡¦s military
because policymakers have taken public statements at face value or failed to
understand Beijing¡¦s thinking.
It said the US had a mixed record on predicting the rising power¡¦s new weaponry,
including largely missing the emergence of more advanced submarines.
As for the speed of military modernization, the study found ¡§identifiable cases
of miscalculation,¡¨ with China developing anti-ship ballistic missiles and
stealth fighter jets earlier than the US expected.
US analysis could have been improved if more experts read Chinese or even looked
at open publications such as academic technical journals, it said.
The study said that US experts ¡§may have failed to fully appreciate the extent
to which the Chinese leadership views the United States as a fundamental threat
to China¡¦s security.¡¨
The study said that US experts assumed in the late 1990s that China would never
catch up militarily with the US and would put a low priority on its defense
industry compared with other parts of the economy.
¡§A decade on, it is now clear that much of the conventional wisdom about China
dating from the turn of the century has proven to be dramatically wrong,¡¨ it
said.
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