Ignore China on US
arms sales: report
¡¦JUST THREATS¡¦: The report said that the
administration of US President Barack Obama had no cause to be timid over
selling advanced F-16 jets and submarines to Taiwan
By William Lowther / Staff reporter in Washington
Randall Schriver, president of
the Project 2049 Institute, right, and Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the
US-Taiwan Business Council, speak at a press conference in Washington on Tuesday
announcing the release of a joint report entitled Chinese Reactions to Taiwan
Arms Sales.
Photo: CNA
A new 100-page report on China¡¦s reaction
to US arms sales to Taiwan concludes that Beijing is ¡§unlikely to challenge any
fundamental US interests¡¨ in response to significant future sales.
¡§The [US President] Barack Obama administration has demonstrated unnecessary
restraint in its Taiwan arms sales decisions ¡X despite having ample
justification for positive considerations,¡¨ the report said.
A joint project of the US-Taiwan Business Council and the Project 2049
Institute, the report analyzes Chinese reactions to arms sales over the past 33
years and finds they have not been much to worry about.
Even so, Randall Schriver, president of the Project 2049 Institute, told a
meeting held in a US Congressional briefing room on Tuesday, the US government
now appears to give more consideration to potential fallout from China than it
does to the Taiwan Relations Act.
Schriver added that having done extensive research, ¡§we can clearly say that if
you are concerned about the effect of US arms sales on the cross-strait
relationship ¡X don¡¦t be.¡¨
He said there was ¡§absolutely no history of fallout¡¨ and that an argument could
be made that there was a correlation between US arms sales to Taiwan and
breakthroughs in the cross-strait relationship.
Threats of impact on US business, he said, have turned out in the past to be no
more than that ¡X ¡§just threats that have not come to fruition.¡¨
US arms sales to Taiwan, he said, work the way that they are supposed to work.
Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, said that
he was convinced that arms sales to Taiwan were ¡§intertwined¡¨ with breakthroughs
in cross-strait ties.
He said: ¡§The evidence is there. It supports the notion that when the US is
unabashedly supportive of Taiwan¡¦s legitimate defense needs it provides Taiwan
with the confidence it requires to engage China from a position of strength.
¡§When we don¡¦t do it, what we have found is that it is inherently destabilizing
and it creates the dynamic in the Strait that the Chinese might potentially feel
is an opening for non-peaceful ways to resolve their issues with Taiwan,¡¨ he
said.
The report stresses that while Beijing¡¦s responses should be considered and
appropriate contingency plans developed, the US should not be deterred by
China¡¦s reactions even though ¡§limited and largely symbolic retaliations¡¨ cannot
be ruled out.
It said: ¡§US policymakers express their grave concerns about potential Chinese
responses prior to any sale, but those concerns are generally not consistent
with the actions carried out by China in the aftermath of the sale.¡¨
The report added: ¡§As expectations for an arms package grow, China increases the
pressure on Washington to do nothing, or to do less, looking to incrementally
reduce the US commitment to Taiwan.¡¨
¡§This pressure takes a toll on the inter-agency review process. While
administration officials may not directly engage with China on the issue,
Chinese considerations are indirectly factoring into the deliberations,¡¨ it
said.
If Taiwan is to continue with at least some self-determination, the report said,
it is ¡§imperative¡¨ that the US remains prepared to sell Taiwan all the systems
it requires, ¡§not just upgrades and second-hand equipment.¡¨
The report argues that China has a well-established track record of responding
¡§negatively and stridently¡¨ to public announcements of US arms sales to Taiwan.
However, a close examination of actions taken as a result, show them to have
very limited sting ¡X leaving the US with ¡§considerable freedom of action.¡¨
The report also said that barring a substantive reduction in the Chinese missile
force aimed at Taiwan, the US will continue arms sales for the foreseeable
future.
It added: ¡§Excessive caution on new arms sales to Taiwan risks legitimizing PRC
[People¡¦s Republic of China] use of military coercion.¡¨
The US¡¦ failure to sell F-16C/D jets and assist Taipei in acquiring
diesel-electric submarines appears to stem from fear of Beijing¡¦s ¡§anticipated
response rather than from Taiwan¡¦s needs.¡¨
If the US went ahead with the F-16 and submarine programs, the report says that
the strongest possible political protest would be the withdrawal of Beijing¡¦s
ambassador to Washington.
Beijing could also suspend military-to-military relations and adopt less
restraint in its licensing of sensitive and militarily relevant technologies to
Iran and North Korea, or it could seek to punish US economic interests in China.
However, this last economic option would be limited because of the potential
negative effects on broader Chinese interests and because economic and
trade-based retaliation could result in the US bringing a case before the WTO.
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