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South China Sea
tensions to dominate ASEAN meet
TURBID WATERS: The summit could provide a
resolution to the disputes, while the US will likely stress cooperation with
China and commitment to its Southeast Asian allies
AFP, PHNOM PENH
Efforts to ease tensions in the South China Sea will dominate this week¡¦s Asian
security dialogue in Cambodia, analysts say, while the US will be at pains to
stress it seeks cooperation with China.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton joins the ASEAN Regional Forum in
Phnom Penh on Thursday, a few days after foreign ministers from across Southeast
Asia open proceedings, with counterparts from China, Japan, the Koreas and
Australia also set to attend.
Friction over competing claims in the South China Sea promises to be the hot
button issue as the 10-member association holds talks today before opening
meetings to include all 27 invited countries. Manila is leading a push for ASEAN
to unite to persuade China to accept a ¡§code of conduct¡¨ in the sea, where
tensions have flared recently, with both Vietnam and the Philippines accusing
Beijing of aggressive behavior. China prefers to deal with the claimants
individually as it seeks to extend its writ over the resource-rich and
strategically important area.
¡§This is make-or-break time for ASEAN members,¡¨ said Carl Thayer, a politics
professor and Southeast Asia security expert at the University of New South
Wales in Australia. ¡§They have set this month as their self-imposed deadline to
come up with a draft code of conduct. There could be progress.¡¨
Taiwan, China and ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia
have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, home to vital
shipping lanes and believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits.
China recently angered Vietnam by inviting bids for exploration of oil blocks in
contested waters, sparking protests in Hanoi earlier this month, while Beijing
and Manila are locked in a tense standoff over the Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan
Island, ¶À©¥®q), which is also claimed by Taiwan.
At their last summit in April, ASEAN countries were divided over when to include
Beijing in discussions about the draft code of conduct, leading to a ¡§big
disagreement,¡¨ Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said at the time.
However, the bloc is still hoping to reach an agreement with China by the end of
the year, 10 years after first committing to creating a legally binding
framework for resolving disputes.
US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell
said late last month he saw momentum on the issue after noticing ¡§an increase in
diplomacy¡¨ between ASEAN and China on a potential code of conduct.
The US recently expanded military relations with the Philippines and Vietnam,
and the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will be ¡§the elephant
in the room¡¨ this week, said Ernie Bower of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington.
Amid concerns that the US¡¦ renewed focus on Asia could antagonize China ahead of
a leadership transition this year, Clinton is expected ¡§to downplay US-China
friction,¡¨ Bower said.
Instead, she will ¡§be at pains to advance US-China cooperation as a main foreign
policy objective,¡¨ Thayer said.
With that in mind, Clinton may be less outspoken on the South China Sea issue
than she was at a regional summit in 2010, when she angered Beijing by saying
the US had a ¡§national interest¡¨ in open access to the sea.
¡§Don¡¦t look for fireworks from Secretary Clinton in Phnom Penh,¡¨ Bower said.
¡§Look for quiet strength, behind the scenes support for ASEAN positions ... but
nothing overt or muscle-heavy from the US.¡¨
Clinton will also want to reassure Asian counterparts that the US is committed
to the region and is not just seeking to counter China.
¡§Secretary Clinton will endeavor to advance a raft of proposals to underscore
that the US has much broader interests in Southeast Asian than military
rebalancing,¡¨ Thayer said.
Her efforts will start even before she arrives in Cambodia, with a quick visit
to Hanoi, where she will meet with US and Vietnamese business representatives,
and a stop-off in Laos, where she will become the first top US diplomat to visit
the communist-run country in 57 years.
After the security forum concludes, Clinton will lead a large US delegation to a
business forum in Cambodia¡¦s tourist hub of Siem Reap on Friday.
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