EDITORIAL: Tipping
the balance of power
The balance of power in East Asia is a tenuous thing, and can be tipped in an
uncontrollable direction in various ways if the players involved are not
careful. This is why Japanese Diet members told visiting Taiwanese lawmakers
that they should not sidle up so close to the People¡¦s Republic of China after a
recent dispute over the Diaoyutai Islands (³¨³½¥x), which Taiwan, Japan and China
all claim, and which ended up taking an ominous twist.
Currently, East Asia, especially the countries on the Pacific Rim, is
experiencing an era of almost unprecedented peace. No major wars, neither land
nor sea, have unsettled this conflict-free period in more than three decades.
This state of affairs has allowed one of the fastest and deepest economic
expansions of any region in world history. Where 40 years ago this region was
characterized by rural, agrarian societies with bloody rebellions going on
everywhere and revolutionary movements ripping cultures apart, today there are
Starbucks outlets and 7-Elevens on street corners in all major cities in the
area and the region has become the world¡¦s factory.
There is a lot to lose and playing around with the balance of power is not
something that should be done lightly. Japan knows this from its drastic
experience prior to and during World War II. Imperial Japan tipped the scales in
the late 1930s, and paid the price.
The situation now is even more dynamic, and potentially more explosive, than it
was back then. In the 1930s, the center of world economic power was in Europe.
Now, the world¡¦s second-biggest and third-biggest ¡X China and Japan respectively
¡X economies are in Asia. China fields one of the world¡¦s largest militaries and
it is becoming increasingly advanced. Japan also has the potential to throw its
weight around, despite its pacifist constitution.
On the peripheries of both of these countries are smaller but very powerful
players ¡X Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore. If the military balance were
to be tipped out of whack, ASEAN could get involved, and the US military, which
has bases and interests everywhere, would be sure to throw its weight into the
ring.
The intricacies of this military balance are profound and all-encompassing. It
is a bad idea for Taiwan, under the leadership of the President Ma Ying-jeou
(°¨^¤E) administration, to trample on the military balance by cozying up too much
to a country that has hitherto been Taiwan¡¦s enemy.
In a luncheon with Japan¡¦s Liberal Democratic Party representatives Yoshitaka
Shindo and Hakubun Shimomura, as well as Democratic Party of Japan
representative Shozo Azuma ¡X all major players in Japanese politics ¡X the
visiting Taiwanese legislators were told that Taiwan should not venture overly
close to China to maintain the balance of power. This veiled warning came
shortly after Coast Guard Administration ships escorted a fishing vessel
carrying Chunghua Baodiao Alliance activists to within eyeshot of the Diaoyutais,
several of which Japan administers. In a provocative twist to the event, one of
the Baodao members unfurled a People¡¦s Republic of China flag as his boat was
being escorted by coats guard vessels from Taiwan flying the Republic of China
flag and as a Japanese coast guard vessel confronted them.
The flag incident could send a signal that Taiwan is now in the China camp,
which would be a major shift in the region¡¦s strategic alliance and would
effectively transform the balance of power if it were true.
It is no surprise that Japanese Diet members took it seriously and are worried
about the state of strategic relations in the region.
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