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EDITORIAL: An apology
to Chinese President Xi
After years of rapprochement, agreements and high-level talks, one could hardly
blame the Chinese public for thinking that the efforts initiated by President Ma
Ying-jeou (馬英九) and then-Chinese president Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) would eventually lead
to a final, political resolution to the conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
On the Chinese side, there were hopes during the early days of Ma’s first term
in office that once the relatively easy negotiations on trade issues were done
with, the two sides would quickly initiate political dialogue on Taiwan’s status
and perhaps sign a peace accord of some sort. The more optimistic even hoped
that the first steps could be taken while Hu was still chairman of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP), and failing that, still in the office of the president.
That time came and went, and Hu went home empty-handed. Ma was re-elected last
year on a platform that promised more of the same — and more of the same is
exactly what the Chinese got. Negotiations continued, but remained focused on
economics, investment, trade, tourism and education.
Now Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is in office and chairman of the CCP, and
it would be reasonable to expect that he hopes to surpass the achievements of
his predecessor on the Taiwan “question.” In fact, the rising nationalist
sentiment in China will make it difficult for Xi to ignore issues such as
“reunification” and the restoration of China’s “honor.”
However, Xi is in for a bit of trouble. As former American Institute in Taiwan
chairman Richard Bush said in Taipei yesterday, there are serious “conceptual
differences” between Taiwanese and Chinese on the issue of political talks.
Among other things, those “conceptual differences” include a democratic system,
freedom of expression, a vibrant civil society and an irrepressible desire to
maintain one’s way of life — not to mention rising Taiwanese identification and
support for de jure independence.
There is more bad news for Xi. Unlike the CCP, Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)
must compete in elections if it wants to remain in power. And with the next
presidential election less than three years hence, Ma will be unable to
dramatically alter the course of his engagement with China. Even though the
Constitution bars Ma from running for a third consecutive term, his successor —
and perhaps even his replacement as KMT chairman, should his low popularity and
a string of corruption scandals result in his ouster — would undoubtedly apply
tremendous pressure on Ma not to sabotage their chances of being elected in 2016
by acting against the wishes of the majority.
What this means is that even if Ma intended to “sell out” Taiwan, his own party
would rebel against him, knowing full well that such a betrayal of public trust
would be political suicide for the party.
Under the tyranny of those “conceptual differences,” engaging in political talks
with Beijing would be the ultimate example of acting against the wishes of the
majority. Unless it decides to send tanks into the streets and uproot Taiwan’s
hard-won democratic system, the KMT will not be able to go much beyond what
public preferences dictate and will instead be compelled to reflect the safest
common denominator within the Taiwanese polity. And that is the so-called
“status quo.”
In the name of the nation’s 23 million people, we therefore apologize to Xi, who
will have to look elsewhere if he wants to outdo the successes of his
predecessor.
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