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US study foresees
China’s ‘coercive power’ on Japan
SUBTLE FORCE: A report said China would likely
not get involved in a military conflict with Japan or the US, but would rather
use its growing power of influence
AFP, WASHINGTON
China will likely use its growing power to try to force its way with Japan, but
it is doubtful that Beijing will enter a Cold War-style confrontation with the
US, a study said on Thursday.
The report by the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
aims to be the most comprehensive unclassified assessment of China’s rise and
its impact on the US-Japan alliance in the years ahead.
China, which has been boosting its defense spending by double digits each year,
has an increasingly tense relationship with Japan, which has voiced alarm at the
frequency of Chinese ship incursions around disputed islands.
The report said China likely saw force as a last resort in foreign affairs, but
that Beijing may see its interests in the islands — known as the Senkakus in
Japanese and the Diaoyutais (釣魚台) in Taiwan — as a special case. Taiwan also
lays claim to the islands.
“The most likely potential challenge to the US-Japan alliance over the next 15
to 20 years does not involve full-scale military conflict between China and
Japan or the United States — for example, one originating from Chinese efforts
to expel Washington from the region,” it added. “The likeliest challenge instead
stems from Beijing’s growing coercive power — increasing Chinese military
capabilities could enable Beijing to influence or attempt to resolve disputes
with Tokyo in its favor, short of military attack.”
“Dramatic shifts” — such as an Asian Cold War pitting China against the US and
its allies, or the dawn of a Chinese-dominated Asia — are unlikely by 2030, the
study said.
The 395-page report was written by nine experts led by Michael Swaine, a veteran
US specialist on Chinese security. It faulted previous studies for looking only
at military factors or making worst-case assumptions about China.
The study identified two likeliest scenarios for China. In one, its economy
would grow at between 4 percent and 5 percent annually — a more modest pace than
in recent years — and the leadership would focus on domestic stability.
Under such a scenario, China would adopt a “restrained and largely defensive
stance” toward Japan and the US-Japan alliance over the next 15 to 20 years,
largely in keeping with recent policy.
However, under another scenario also seen as likely, China would post higher
growth and take an increasingly assertive posture. China would probably try more
actively to pressure Japan, but would also seek economic cooperation and attempt
to avoid “excessive alarm” in Tokyo and Washington.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a conservative who returned to power in
December last year, has moved to step up defense spending by the world’s
third-largest economy and supports revisions to the post-World War II pacifist
constitution.
However, the study doubted major changes by Japan toward China due to factors
that include the constitution, a likely slow-growing economy, an aging
population and business interests involving the larger neighbor.
“Despite the recent ascendancy of those who advocate a full-blown competitive
strategy, Japan is more likely to pursue a policy of cooperative engagement that
encompasses either a hard or soft hedge,” the report said.
Japan is expected to put a top priority on its alliance with the US, the report
said.
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