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China¡¦s deal with
Israel is a problem for Taiwan
By Nat Bellocchi ¥Õ¼Ö±T
While the US is making its ¡§pivot,¡¨ or rebalancing, from the Middle East to
Southeast and East Asia, enhancing its economic, political and military presence
there, a countermove is being made: China is increasing its presence in the
Middle East. This is important for Taiwan.
As Washington lowers its presence in Iraq, Afghanistan and surrounding
countries, Beijing is doing the opposite, filling the economic void left by the
US. China¡¦s primary purpose is energy: it needs vast amounts of oil, natural gas
and other natural resources to fuel its burgeoning economy.
To sustain an increased presence in the region, China is following a two-pronged
strategy:
First, it is embarking on a ¡§New Silk Road¡¨ of infrastructure projects from
western China into the Central Asian republics, which are designed to eventually
link to Iran and Turkey. This will provide direct access to the Middle East,
bypassing the cumbersome and vulnerable sea route through the Strait of Malacca.
Second, China is embarking on a naval modernization, shifting from its
traditional coastal defense to a ¡§far sea defense¡¨ designed to increase its
ability to protect its overseas interests. The speed of this modernization was
increased significantly after the fall of former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi
in the summer of 2011, when China had little means of influencing developments
and was left to evacuate about 36,000 Chinese from Libya who were there working
on state-sponsored development projects.
In the middle of all this, China is also doing something that might have a
direct bearing on Taiwan: it is working hard to strengthen ties with Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Beijing in May and was warmly
welcomed in the Chinese capital. Strange bedfellows maybe, but each country has
its own reasons.
Israel is, of course, a small nation surrounded by a set of hostile neighbors.
It wants China¡¦s help in the UN Security Council on issues related to Syria and
Iran. Beijing may be willing to provide help, for a price. That price is Israeli
defense technology.
China¡¦s People¡¦s Liberation Army is highly interested in acquiring key
capabilities that it can use in possible conflicts with the US, Taiwan and
Japan, such as stealth, surveillance, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, or
drones), missile electronics and guidance, and airborne warning and control
system (AWACS). When they revived their military ties in 2011 and held bilateral
discussions, Israel¡¦s UAV technology was at the top of China¡¦s military wish
list.
It would not be wise for Israel to start to relying on China¡¦s goodwill to
resolve conflicts with its neighbors. China will only look out for its own
interests and, in the end, drop Israel, its temporary ally, for what the larger
parties like Iran can offer: oil and gas.
China will squeeze Israel for any piece of high-end technology it can lay its
hands on, like when it tried to obtain the Phalcon AWACS system and the upgraded
Harpy drone. Israel planned to sell the technologies to China in the early
2000s, but the deals were canceled at the insistence of the US. Defensive
technology would be used by a repressive China against democratic allies, not
only the US and Japan, but also against a small nation threatened by a large
neighbor: Taiwan.
To avoid a potential ¡§Phalcon/
Harpy debacle redux,¡¨ both the US and Taiwan would do well to reach out to
Israel and convince its leaders that any transfer of such sensitive, often
dual-use, technologies will undermine a small, free and democratic nation
fighting for its survival. Hopefully, Israel¡¦s leaders will recognize the
situation.
Nat Bellocchi served as chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan from
1990 to 1995. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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