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Ma crosses the point
of no return at summit
By Hung Chi-kune 洪智坤
During the recent APEC summit in Bali, Indonesia, Chinese President Xi Jinping
(習近平) met with former vice president Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), President Ma Ying-jeou’s
(馬英九) envoy to the summit. Speaking about a timetable for cross-strait political
negotiations, Xi emphasized that the problems caused by long-term political
disagreements between Taiwan and China must eventually be resolved and that
these problems cannot be left to future generations. Xi also said that leaders
from both sides can meet and exchange ideas on cross-strait issues.
These are the most politically significant statements on cross-strait issues Xi
has made since coming to power. Xi’s comments about how problems cannot be
further avoided shows that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities are
extremely eager to start political negotiations with Taiwan. Also, Xi’s special
emphasis on leaders from both sides being able to meet leaves a lot of room for
us to imagine the possibility of a meeting between Ma and Xi at next year’s APEC
summit.
The APEC summit is the only meeting organized by international organizations
that Taiwan attends at the national leader level. As a result, when former
president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) was in office, various approaches were attempted
to secure chances for Chen to attend as Taiwan’s national leader. In 2005,
Taiwan and China discussed the possibility of a meeting between Chen and former
Chinese president Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) during that year’s APEC summit. However,
because both sides were unable to come to a consensus on what “one China” meant
in practice, Chen refused to attend as a regional representative of “Chinese
Taipei,” and the possibility of a meeting between Chen and Hu vanished.
Now, the cross-strait political situation has gone through even bigger changes.
In June this year, Ma authorized former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman
Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄), during a visit to China, to accept Xi’s proposal of a “one
China” framework. The Ma administration has kept on emphasizing the so-called
“1992 consensus,” so much so that there is no chance of “each side having their
own interpretation” of what that means. Judging from the way Siew mentioned the
“1992 consensus,” while Xi only talked about the “one China” framework during
the APEC summit, it is clear that the CCP’s stance toward “one China” is
strengthening.
Ma’s low approval ratings and the doubts surrounding the illegal wiretapping
scandal that pitched him against Legislative Speaker Wang Jyn-ping (王金平) have
seen Ma once again lose badly here at home politically, and he has been forced
to temporarily seek peace by backing off. However, given how obsessed Ma is with
his legacy, we have to be extra cautious of Ma making abrupt moves when it comes
to cross-strait issues.
The political implications of Ma sending Mainland Affairs Council Minister Wang
Yu-chi (王郁琦) along to the APEC summit are self-evident, just as the CCP’s
attempts to organize a meeting between Ma and Xi during next year’s APEC summit
have long been an open secret in both Taiwan and China.
However, the CCP is not giving away any free lunches and Ma is unlikely to
recklessly sign a cross-strait peace agreement with China. As a result, the
biggest likelihood is that the KMT and the CCP will use a joint declaration to
reach an interim political agreement before the next APEC summit. When that
happens, Xi will enter the next APEC summit as leader of “one China” with its
protectorate called “Chinese Taipei,” represented by Ma. Once this happens,
there will be no turning back for Taiwan.
Hung Chi-kune is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party’s Central
Executive Committee.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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