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Anti-ship missiles
would protect Taiwan: report
STRATEGIC: Beijing would have to search across a
large number of locations and have PLA assets within range to locate the
missiles and interdict them, a report said
By William Lowther / Staff reporter in WASHINGTON
A new technical report from RAND Corp argues that low-cost, readily available
anti-ship missiles (ASMs) based on Taiwan and other islands could be used to
bottle up China in the case of a war.
¡§The ability to cut off Chinese seaborne access beyond the first island chain
would serve as a major deterrent and have a significant effect on China¡¦s
ability to attack its overseas neighbors and wage a prolonged war,¡¨ the report
said.
It would not require the permanent stationing of new missile batteries in the
Western Pacific ¡X the missiles would only be rushed into place if China
initiated a conflict.
Cutting off Chinese sea routes using land-based ASMs would have a ¡§significant
effect¡¨ on China¡¦s ability to project power and would ¡§vastly expand¡¨ the
military problems faced by China¡¦s People¡¦s Liberation Army (PLA).
¡§Because these missile systems are relatively easy to operate and are
strategically and tactically mobile, the PLA would have to search across a huge
number of locations and have assets within range to locate and interdict them,¡¨
it said.
¡§Missile systems that could be placed in many locations over thousands of miles
of island chains would significantly dilute the effectiveness of PLA missile and
air forces,¡¨ the report said.
Titled Employing Land-Based Anti-Ship Missiles in the Western Pacific, the
report appears to offer one US tactic to stop Beijing invading Taiwan.
Attempting to justify the decision by the administration of US President Barack
Obama not to sell F-16C/D jets to Taiwan, senior Pentagon officials have told
the Taipei Times in the past that the island would be better off spending its
defense dollars on ASMs.
Ground-launched ASMs stationed in Taiwan with a range of no more than 100km,
along with missiles with an effective range of 200km in Okinawa, could
effectively cover all naval traffic south of Okinawa, the report said.
Another possibility would be to position missiles with a 200km range solely on
the Ryukyu Islands, which would also effectively close the area south of
Okinawa, Japan.
¡§The area between Okinawa and mainland Japan could be effectively covered by
ASMs with a 100km range in Japanese territory alone,¡¨ RAND said in the report.
At the same time, said the report, the missiles would prevent the Chinese from
capturing targets in the first island chain by targeting amphibious forces.
Similarly, the report said the Luzon Strait between the Philippines and Taiwan,
as well as the waterways between the Philippines and Borneo, could be covered by
100km-range missiles positioned in the Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia and by
200km-range missiles fired solely from Philippine islands.
¡§Should China use or threaten to use force against US allies or partners in the
region, the US might want such assets available,¡¨ said the report. ¡§It would
need to be able to rapidly move ASMs into the region from US territory or from
other prepositioned stocks in Asia.¡¨
The report said that the ASM approach is ¡§particularly appealing¡¨ because it
does not require the stationing or projecting of large-scale forces inside the
first island chain ¡§with all the implications that such a measure would have for
Chinese security.
¡§The US would not want to position these types of forces in the region unless
tensions with China were very high,¡¨ it said. ¡§These modest scale forces could
be moved quickly into place if Chinese aggression indicated a need and if
countries in the region were willing to accept them.¡¨
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