Mr. Willy Wo-Lap 為 CNN 的中國評論家，認為中共民主化的急迫感，於某些 程度上有既謹慎又可期望的進展。
台灣若無法堅決“主權獨立”的事實，與未來統一在民主制度下的一個中國，則現在的中共，必然會持續其集權高壓的統治方式，是全中國人的厄夢，故勸台灣急統人士宜固守分寸，不要出賣全世界的中國人。
在 Willy Wo-Lap 的文中指出：中共已經逐步邁入世界經濟體系，雖然江澤民亟力打擊政治異議份子、地下宗教活動、法輪功、疆獨、藏獨的分離份子，可是在國際人權組織討伐與爭取奧運與 WTO 的前題下，中共當局必須得做某些調整，是真是假，不在此評述範圍。
江澤民與日本勞工代表會談時表示，中國共產黨會追求政治改革，並表明他絕不是一個獨裁者，同時李鵬對廣東高幹談話，亦明示不會停止政治改革，中共青壯派的領袖人，大多主張加強民主化的進展，但是必須在可掌控的範圍內，穩定行使民主活動。筆者認為穩定與掌握中的民主程序與真正政黨民主有極大的差別，中共領導對民主的選舉，還抱持相當的不安。
一般觀察，於明年中共十六屆人大或許會有重大決定，皆認為決策當局會受奧運、人權組織、WTO 的影響。在中共元老級步入退休與新貴接班的時刻，有改革抱負的新生代，應有政治改革的認知，Mr. Lam預測此次人大會議將出現決策上的轉變。
有人已經主張要讓私人企業代表與所謂紅色資本家參與財經國事，並認為政經隔離是必要的作法。分析家認為中共在未來的十年，應該可以在民主發展中，達到一些效果，中共嘗試在鄉村實施民選，自1997到1998這兩年間，有少數智庫成員建議希望能於2003年擴大城鎮直選，而預定於2008年開始市長選舉。可是中央領導階層，認為間接選舉比較妥當，他們以為由直選出來的草根領袖來選出城市首長就可以了。
高層的行政長官，已被部份人要求要有碩士以上的學歷，特別是在執行事業領域的工作性質上，有其重要性，但是此事還得不到正面回應。
中共領導班子的憂慮是，快速開放民主直選的方式，會引起失控的現象，形成地方無政府狀態，鑑於失業工人的增加，若權力下放百姓，恐為產生加溫的作用，反而阻礙民主發展的推行。
由於中共擔心，所謂法輪功、回教分離份子皆有大規模暴亂的現象，故到現在還會強力取締有組織的群眾活動。
根據 Mr. Lam 所評論，他則是很樂觀的認為，未來十年之間，中共會努力去實施民主制度以因應國際潮流。而我個人則以保留的心態，希望兩岸在彼此互動之中做雙贏的傳承。（附英文稿，請參照。）
Rise of the 'Radical Red Capitalists'
February 28, 2001 ---
Web posted at: 1:18 PM HKT (0518 GMT)
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN.com Senior China AnalystHONG KONG, China -- Contrary to popular perceptions, political reform is very much on the agenda of Chinese cadres.
And while only ginger steps toward liberalization are being contemplated, they are worth studying as pointers to bigger things to come in the event of major socio-economic changes.
Despite the Jiang Zemin administration's harsh stance toward dissidents, the underground church, and the quasi-Buddhist Falun Gong sect, political reform has been cited by top officials in a number of unpublicized speeches and at meetings with foreign delegations.
While talking to a Japanese labor delegation last week, Jiang indicated the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was still pursuing reform of the political structure.
The 74-year-old supremo also denied being a dictator.
“I'm not a dictator,”he said.“Major decisions are made by the Politburo Standing Committee, and we meet every week.”
During his recent swing through southern Guangdong province, National People's Congress (NPC ) Chairman Li Peng had this to say to local cadres:“It is wrong to assert we have put a stop to political reform.”
Li then cited the open recruitment of senior officials in several provinces and cities as an example of reform.
Indeed, at the plenary session of the policy-setting CCP Central Committee last October, it was decided that the party should“strengthen the construction of democracy”and encourage“citizens to take part in politics in an orderly manner.”
Political reform theme
A party veteran said it was likely political reform would be a theme in the 16th CCP Congress next year, which would witness a wholesale changing of the guard at the party and government's top echelons.
However, the political and administrative reforms introduced the past year or so have been cautious to a fault.
This has lent credence to the theory that the leadership is merely out to placate an international audience that includes the International Olympic Committee and foreign investors interested in opportunities after China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Yet it is important to note that the reforms that have been undertaken are the result of the leadership succumbing to pressure from political and social groupings such as workers and private entrepreneurs.
And should this pressure intensify after the country's WTO accession, it is possible the CCP leadership may be forced to yield more.
Let us first examine efforts to modernize the CCP, which has yet to shed its Leninist roots.
One change suggested by reform-minded cadres in recent internal discussions is strict retirement ages for senior personnel including Politburo Standing Committee members.
Unlike government officials, party cadres have no mandatory retirement ages.
Other liberals want a broader degree of consultation when the nation's 56 million party members pick the 2,000 or so delegates to the 16th Party Congress. They also want more transparency when these delegates cast their ballots for members of the Central Committee -- and when the 200-odd members of the Committee elect Politburo members from among themselves.
Red capitalists
Analysts familiar with the Jiang camp said affiliates of the president's think tank are working on two radical ideas: letting private entrepreneurs or“red capitalists”join the CCP; and“separation of party and government,”at least in industry and commerce.
The latter means party committees in state-owned enterprises should no longer have administrative powers, which would only be exercised by the board of directors and managers.
The analysts said if these relatively daring initiatives became reality by 2002 or so, the chances for a faster pace of democracy the rest of the decade would be higher.
Likewise, reform has been cautious in the area of government and administration, including the much-vaunted experiment with village-level elections.
In the short-lived Beijing spring of 1997 and 1998, quite a few think tank members suggested that grassroots polls be upgraded to direct elections of the heads of townships and counties by 2003 -- and of mayors by 2008.
However, sources close to the Ministry of Civil Administration, which is in charge of elections, said it was unlikely this ambitious plan would come to pass any time soon.
The sources said the leadership would only consider the indirect election of township and county chiefs -- meaning they would be voted into office by the popularly elected village heads, but not by universal suffrage.
More headway is being made in administrative and civil-service reforms, particularly the public recruitment of officials.
Bold experiment
A Guangdong province source said the special economic zone of Shenzhen was pushing through the bold experiment of the open recruitment of about one third of municipal officials with the rank of heads of bureaus and departments.
“For such a relatively senior post as head of department, candidates must have a master's degree, special expertise, and a record of public service,”the source said.“But CCP membership is not a requirement.”
Candidates responding to advertisements for the jobs will take a written test on their professional skills. They will also be quizzed orally by a number of deputies to the local people's congress and political consultative conference before the final hiring decisions are made by Shenzhen's top leaders.
It is believed the Shenzhen experience may spread to other provinces. And if this experiment succeeds, even higher-level positions -- which are normally appointed by the party's Organization Department -- might be recruited through open competition.
Indeed, the CCP has for years been saddled with a Catch 22 situation. Senior cadres have pointed to socio-political instability such as protests by laid-off workers as a reason for dragging their feet on political reform. Their argument is that giving away too much power to the people will lead to anarchy.
Recently, however, there is the gradual realization that unless social sectors and interest groups are given more say, socio-economic tensions may lead to an explosion.
A recent article in the pro-Beijing Hong Kong journal The Mirror quoted unnamed cadres as saying that grassroots elections could no longer do the trick of accommodating the aspirations of social groupings.
“The recent activities of the Falun Gong and large-scale riots by Muslim residents in Shandong [ province] show the masses have no channels to express their dissatisfaction with the government,” The Mirror article said.
Younger generation
Diplomatic analysts say the country may have to wait until the second half of the decade before the fourth or younger generation of leadership -- which will have been entrenched in power by then -- will be willing to tackle the crucial issues.
These include lifting the ban on forming new parties and on private papers and TV stations, which is considered key to the real modernization of the political structure.
For example, extending grassroots election to the municipal or higher levels presupposes the formation of different political parties. After all, it is almost impossible for a candidate to campaign in a city or province without a party-like organization.
And even conservative leaders such as NPC chief Li have saluted the role of the press in supervising party and government departments.
Through proxies such as academics and think-tank members, Fourth Generation leaders such as Vice-President Hu Jintao and head of the party's Organization Department Zeng Qinghong have hinted they will make bolder reform efforts later in the decade.
The actions they take will affect not only the chances of economic integration with the global marketplace but also the long-term viability and survival of the party.
