Hong Kong can teach us a lesson

By Trong Chai

The popular protest against Article 23 of Hong Kong's Basic Law shows us, with abundant clarity, that even though China promised that Hong Kong would not change for 50 years following its return to China, it is, to our surprise, changing already after a mere six years. In the end, the "one country, two systems" unification strategy has not stood the test of time.

Having observed China's promises proving to be empty so soon, I call for all unificationists harboring the "one country, two systems" illusion and accepting the "Hong Kongization" of Taiwan to take a good look at Hong Kong's situation and think about Taiwan's future. It is time to wake up.

The return of Hong Kong to China was followed by a short honeymoon. That honeymoon, however, was meant to be a part of the unification war on Taiwan and to present the international community with a false image. It was only meant to cloud the true image the international community had of China's evil leadership.

As expected, less than five years into the honeymoon, a comparison of Hong Kong before and after 1997 shows that real-estate values have fallen to 30 percent of pre-1997 levels, that the number of bankruptcies have increased by seven times, that 1.5 million people live below the poverty line, that the number of people seeing themselves as Chinese had fallen to 22 percent by late last year, that unemployment rates have reached 7.4 percent and that the number of job vacancies has fallen the most among specialized and managerial-level administrative positions. These facts should be given serious consideration.

Over the past few years, many people have lost confidence in the administrative region and harbor the illusion that China is the new immigration paradise. In fact, if we look at Hong Kong, comparing the above figures to Taiwan, we'll see that acceptance of Chinese rule is nothing less than a dead-end street. It is an undeniable fact that, at the moment, less than 15 percent of the people of Taiwan approve of the "one country, two systems" concept.

I still remember China's former president Jiang Zemin, when he handed over his duties as secretary-general of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), saying that since China's international status was both dignified and honorable, the people of Taiwan should be honored to be a part of China. Maybe he didn't know that even though China behaves as a hegemon internationally, it is one of the countries with the lowest overall quality of life and the highest ratings in human-rights violations and corruption indices. I would guess that most Taiwanese already know whether they would be happier as citizens of China or Taiwan.

Are the people under Chinese rule happy? Let's begin to explore this issue from the seriousness of China's human-rights violations. A report from the UN Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights published in March this year points out that the international impression of China was that it has a bad human-rights record. Examples of the Chinese government violating human rights "are still common."

Criticism of China by international human-rights organizations includes torture of religious followers and depriving them of religious freedom; not respecting the human rights of citizens and arresting migrant workers without proper cause; allowing schools to extract any fees they want, thus depriving the poor of the right to an education; strictly prohibiting gatherings and demonstrations, thus depriving its people of the freedom of expression; having a medical system that harms its people, with sloppy surgery and high fees, creating a free market for blood plasma and ignoring the lives and health of its people; controlling publishing and news, thus depriving its people of the freedom of information; and planned pregnancies and the forced sterilization of women.

Now that this Chinese nightmare is appearing before the eyes of the people of Hong Kong, won't our unificationists feel a pang of pain that one of our own kind has passed away?

The uninitiated may not know that some people already have adapted Jiang's ramblings about looking to the east, south, west and north into a Hong Kong version -- "the Chief Executive is standing on Hung Hom Square. Looking east, people are emigrating to New Zealand and Australia. Looking south, the economy is in the doldrumss. Looking north, China's violent rule is tearing Hong Kong apart. Looking west, there are only poor people."

I believe that the fact that such warnings are appearing six years after Hong Kong was returned to China should put us on the alert -- the "one country, two systems" nightmare really does exist. Hong Kong is the best mirror for Taiwan, showing us that believing in China will only lead us down a dead-end street.

Trong Chai is a DPP legislator.

Tung puts brakes on Hong Kong's anti-subversion bill

CHANGE OF HEART?: In a dramatic turnaround, Hong Kong's chief executive agreed to delay a vote on the highly controversial legislation

AP , HONG KONG

Hong Kong's leader agreed yesterday to delay an anti-subversion bill that drew a half million protesters into the streets and threw his government into its biggest crisis since the former British colony was returned to China.

Critics said Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa has lost control over Hong Kong and might not survive the predicament.

"Tung should take the blame and resign," said pro-democracy lawmaker Leung Yiu-chung. "This is an unprecedented political calamity that has wiped out the power and reputation of his administration."

In a stunning reversal, Tung announced yesterday that the bill outlawing subversion, sedition, treason and other crimes against the state would not be submitted for a vote tomorrow. Tung had earlier insisted on that timetable. On Saturday, he said he would cull portions of the bill in a last-minute attempt to calm the criticism.

Opponents fear the legislation would lead to Chinese-style repression of dissident viewpoints and undermine Hong Kong's freedoms of speech, press and assembly. It carries life prison sentences for many offenses.

An official in Beijing said on Sunday the bill should be passed "on schedule," but Tung had to abandon the plan after a key legislative ally, James Tien of the pro-business Liberal Party, refused to go along. Tien announced his unprecedented resignation from Tung's top policy-making body on Sunday night, saying the bill needed more public consultation.

Tung's government repeatedly denied Hong Kong's freedoms were in jeopardy but found itself in an unmanageable and unprecedented dilemma after the massive protest last Tuesday, the sixth anniversary of Hong Kong's return from British to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, 1997.

An anti-subversion bill is required under Hong Kong's mini-constitution, but critics say the government tried to go too far with its measure. They accused Tung of betraying Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" form of government that guaranteed it could keep its Western-style civil liberties and capitalist ways.

The US, the EU, Britain, Australia and New Zealand all raised questions about the anti-subversion bill.

Acknowledging widespread public discontent, Tung said on Saturday he would scrap a provision that allows some groups to be banned, add protections for journalists who publish classified information and delete a provision that would let police conduct searches without warrants.

Tung huddled with top aides into the wee hours of yesterday, then backed down.

Last week's protest was the biggest in Hong Kong since 1 million people demonstrated against Beijing's deadly crackdown on the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement in June 1989. It gave many here a new sense of empowerment.

"Beijing should get a very important message: We are not asking for independence, but we do want to be left alone in running our own affairs," said lawmaker Martin Lee, a top opposition figure. "We love our freedom."

China embraces long-range missiles

MILITARY THREAT: Beijing hopes long-range missiles will further its intimidation tactics as they are more destructive and less susceptible to anti-missile systems

By Brian Hsu

STAFF REPORTER

China intends to use long- and medium-range ballistic missiles against Taiwan in the future while reducing or removing short-range ballistic missiles deployed in coastal provinces, defense sources said yesterday.

The long- and medium-range missiles that China might use against Taiwan include the Dong Feng-31, which has a range of 8,000km, and the Dong Feng-21, which has a range of 2,000km.

Both missiles feature multiple warheads and high flight speeds, making it virtually impossible to intercept them with anti-ballistic missile systems.

The longer-range missiles have been chosen as weapons in any attack against Taiwan because of their greater destructive power and their ability to beat any existing anti-missile system.

As they become more important to China as tools to intimidate Taiwan, the short-range missiles deployed in Fujian Province are facing possible reduction or removal.

A defense source said former Chinese president Jiang Zemin took the initiative to propose that Beijing remove its short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan in exchange Washington's agreement to stop selling weapons to Taiwan.

"The proposal was not accepted either by Taiwan or the US. But it signifies that China has already been prepared for a possible removal of the missiles targeting Taiwan," the source said. "It also means that China no longer counts on these missiles as the only weapons to intimidate Taiwan."

Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming has warned in an indirect way that China's longer-range missiles are tangible threats to the country. Tang made the warning during meetings of the defense committee of the legislature in the last session.

The military had refused to admit to the possibility that China might consider using ICBMs or medium-range ballistic missiles against Taiwan, arguing it wouldn't use the weapons against an enemy of the same ethnic origin or because the longer-range missiles are too expensive to be wasted on Taiwan.

But information gathered in recent years shows that China intends to use longer-range missiles against Taiwan for a variety of reasons.

The short-range missiles have limited the economic progress of coastal regions and are more susceptible to pre-emptive strikes.

In Fuzhou, for instance, the development of the city had been restricted because of preparations for war against Taiwan. But in the past two years the city has allowed the construction of taller buildings. The change is due to the disappearance of regular troops in the city, most of whom have been transferred to the armed police corps.

As China focuses on developing the economy of its coastal provinces, it now tends to avoid any possible face-to-face confrontation with Taiwan, preferring to use long-range missiles as less visible but more effective tools of intimidation.

Military develops prototype for light armored vehicle

AFP , TAIPEI

The country has completed the prototype of a light armored vehicle in a weapons-procurement project that could cost the army up to NT$36 billion (US$1.05 billion), it was reported yesterday.

"The first sample vehicle was finished early last month and a series of tests have kicked off," a Chinese-language newspaper said.

The completion of the eight-wheeled prototype marked an end to a long-standing debate in the army of whether tracked or wheeled armor should be selected as the next generation of armored vehicles, the daily said.

Military experts said if the report is verified, it would suggest that mobility has been given top priority while the army weighs its armaments plan.

In a military reform plan that ended in 2001, the military cut its troop numbers but reinforced their mobility and firepower in the face of what is perceived as a growing Chinese military threat.

The Ministry of National Defense declined to comment on the report.

The daily said the first models, which are similar in design to the French-made Piranha armored vehicle, would be completed in February.

The new armored vehicles would replace some 700 vintage M-41 tanks, while M48-Hs and M60-A3s would remain the backbone of the army's tank force, the paper said.

An unnamed army general, however, was quoted by the paper as saying that the US-made M1-A2 Abrams heavy tank is on the army's shopping list.

Beware China's financial talons

Taiwan has always viewed foreign capital with both trepidation and expectation. In his speech at a seminar on financial reform yesterday, President Chen Shui-bian said the government plans to ease the limits on foreign investment in the country's stock market soon. This demonstrates the government's new thinking on foreign investment -- a view in which economic development overrides the emphasis on financial security that has prevailed since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Taiwan has scored considerable achievements in financial liberalization and internationalization, but there are also blind spots. In concrete terms, Taiwan is under pressure from economic erosion and military annexation by China. Taiwan inevitably has to put more thought into national security in the process of financial liberalization and internationalization so as to prevent a repeat of Hong Kong's situation in the run up to the 1997 handover, in which a massive influx of Chinese capital caused the territory to lose its economic independence. Worries about China have caused the pace of Taiwan's liberalization to falter.

The experience of the Asian financial crisis is another reason why Taiwan's financial authorities have been wary about easing restrictions. Taiwan came out relatively unscathed from the crisis but the government is still fearful of the aggressive profit-taking acts by international financial opportunists in the currency markets, which have caused the Asian financial crisis to spread further afield.

"It should have been done a long time ago" was KMT Chairman Lien Chan's response to Chen's announcement of the new policy. However, this particular policy was long debated in the days of KMT rule and no consensus was reached. Since the DPP came to power, both the Central Bank and the Securities and Futures Commission have held the view that this policy faces enormous obstacles and is hard to implement. During its internal meetings, the Central Bank repeatedly stressed the "importance of maintaining stable currency exchange rates," and held the view that recklessly lifting the restrictions before cross-strait relations see any tangible improvement will open the doors for Chinese capital to come in and jeopardize Taiwan's financial order. It would also lead to foreign "hot money" such as hedge funds to disturb the country's currency markets.

Fluctuations in the NT dollar and the infiltration of Chinese capital are still the key issues in the government's financial liberalization policy. Objectively, Taiwan's environment has not improved substantially. In contrast to his cautious attitude on direct links with China, Chen's decision to ease restrictions on foreign capital is an indication that improving the economy is the top political mission. Taiwan's investment environment is still better than that of many other countries. For foreign investors Taiwan is still a worthwhile investment destination. Taiwan also needs foreign capital to fill in the gap created by the capital outflow to China and to boost the country's economic vitality.

This shift in policy emphasis from economic security to economic development is more symbolic than substantial, but the government should not underestimate the negative effects of Chinese capital infiltration and currency market fluctuations. Even though the government has said the liberalization will be complemented with a capital reporting system, this will only prevent blatant Chinese capital invasion. It will not eliminate indirect interference by Chinese capital. The financial authorities should plan more reliable safety valves to maintain Taiwan's security in the process of financial liberalization.

Successful plebicites demand a lot of work

By Chang Tse-chou

Thanks to the KMT-PFP alliance's U-turn on the referendum issue, the people of Taiwan are likely to directly exercise their civil rights on major national issues soon.

For years, referendums, an elected legislature and direct presidential elections have been the three major goals of the pro-democracy movement in this country. The previous legislative and direct presidential elections realized the sharing of power between the ruling and opposition camps and the transition of power.

However, due to political parties' exchanges of interests and compromises when amending the Constitution before, and the relatively small size of the DPP inside the Legislative Yuan, it's difficult to further reform the system, or promote legislation and major national policies. This has caused not only internal conflicts but also doubts about whether Taiwan's democracy is stepping backward. Perhaps a referendum is an opportunity to activate people's civil rights, to ease internal conflicts and to launch systematic reforms.

Nevertheless, many people are both happy and worried facing the nation's very first referendum. They are happy because the people can finally express their opinions on major national policies directly. They are worried because most people do not have a "civic consciousness." These people do not know the significance and seriousness of a referendum. Nor do they want to deeply understand the content of a referendum.

If the government hastily launches a referendum, whether the outcome of the referendum will tally with people's interests is hard to predict. Therefore, the government must prepare thoroughly to ensure a successful referendum.

First, a referendum is the people's basic right to express themselves on major issues. When drafting the proposed referendum law, the government should avoid unnecessary restrictions regarding issues highly related to the majority of people -- except reasonable regulations on the number of signatories of a referendum proposal.

Second, apart from controversial issues such as the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant and legislative reform, the Cabinet should propose referendums on other unresolved major issues -- such as the accomplishment of the national "garbage free and safe waste treatment plan" within 10 years, and the implementation of 12-year compulsory education and low tuition for higher education within three years -- in order to demonstrate its long-term vision for running the nation and its determination to reform.

Third, and most importantly, any referendum should be proposed three months before it actually takes place. The government should, in line with its handling of the outbreak of SARS, explain to the public in detail the purpose, significance and content -- as well as budget sources and distribution -- of a referendum. People should have discussion with experts and teachers about referendums in communities and schools. The media should thoroughly cover and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of a case in order to educate the public.

A well-implemented referendum is the most direct and effective way for the public to express their opinions and for the government to carry out its national policies based on such opinions. Viewing the progress of the nation's democracy, the realization of referendums has a significant historical meaning. To ensure that the outcome of a referendum tallies with the public's long-term interests, the government should be extremely careful when drafting the referendum law and preparing for referendums. It should never use costly referendums as a campaign tool.

Chang Tse-chou is the head of Panchiao Community College.