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Chen warns businesses of China risk

GIVE AND TAKE: The president argued that China would remain an important trade partner, but warned that excessive investment in China carried a serious political risk

By Chiu Yu-Tzu

STAFF REPORTER

President Chen Shui-bian yesterday said that Taiwan would not isolate itself from Chinese or other markets, but he urged local businesspeople to be more aware of the potential risks in investing in China -- for their sake and for the country's sake.

Chen's comments were part of a speech via videoconference to the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan.

He said that "China's rise" would be influenced by many factors, including its huge market and economic appeal, expanding military capabilities, the potential for socioeconomic turmoil, the political center's capacity to control the regions and the question of whether democratization could be introduced in a steady fashion.

When asked about Taipei's economic stance on China, Chen said that Taiwan would not isolate itself from the international community or from the Chinese market.

"Taiwan is not an isolated island. It's part of the world. Trade is important for Taiwan's survival," Chen said.

"But to Taiwan, China is not a normal country. It's a country that is hostile to Taiwan, with the intention of invading and taking over," he said.

Chen said that businesspeople had to keep in mind that China is neither a free and open economy nor a country under the rule of law.

"We must strengthen our investment in [our own country] and at the same time maintain a global perspective. The China market is one link in global market. It's not the only link," he said.

Chen said that economic policies relating to China in the past adopted the approach of "go slow, be patient." But this had been replaced with "active engagement" and "effective management," he said.

"We must remind Taiwanese businesspeople of the potential political risks in investing in China and in expanding economic relations," he said.

Chen called on businesspeople to work with the government to ensure that Taiwan remained the priority for economic investment.

He said that most people were aware of China's internal situation, and that some even mentioned the possibility of a collapse.

"In the past, few of us predicted that the Berlin Wall would fall. In the same way, few of us expected that the Soviet Union would collapse," he said.

However, Chen said that Taiwan could bear the brunt of global shockwaves caused by a collapse of the Chinese regime.

"Such a scenario would not be good for Taiwan. There are so many Taiwanese businesspeople investing in China and there's so much trade with China," he said.

Chen said that Taiwan was willing to contribute to "China's rise." But he said this increase in power should be accompanied by a "peaceful emergence" and the "beginning of democracy."

Talks commence on North Korean nuclear program

NEGOTIATIONS: The US assured Pyongyang that it would not invade, and North Korea insisted that all of the Korean Peninsula be free of nuclear weapons

AP , BEIJING

"We view [North Korea's] sovereignty as a matter of fact. The US has absolutely no intention to invade or attack."－ Christopher Hill, US Assistant Secretary of State

North Korea's envoy to international disarmament talks said yesterday that his country was ready to work on eliminating atomic weapons from the Korean Peninsula, while the US reassured the communist nation at the revived negotiations that it has no intention of invading to end the nuclear standoff.

"The fundamental thing is to make real progress in realizing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Key-wan said at the opening session of the talks in Beijing.

"This requires very firm political will and a strategic decision of the parties concerned that have interests in ending the threat of nuclear war," he said. "We are fully ready and prepared for that."

In the past, North Korea has said denuclearization of the peninsula also includes removing alleged US nuclear weapons from South Korea. Both Washington and Seoul have denied any such weapons are present.

The talks that began yesterday are the fourth such six-nation negotiations, which also include China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US. They are reconvening after a 13-month boycott by the North, which cited "hostile" US policies.

North Korea agreed to return to the talks following a meeting earlier this month between Kim and the main US envoy, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, who assured the North that Washington recognized its sovereignty.

Yesterday, Hill repeated those pledges.

"We view [North Korea's] sovereignty as a matter of fact. The US has absolutely no intention to invade or attack" North Korea, Hill said in his opening remarks.

Unlike the previous rounds, which were scheduled for several days, no end date has been set for this week's resumed negotiations.

Hill said yesterday his delegation would remain in Beijing "so long as we are making progress in these talks." He has previously said he doesn't expect this round to be the last of the six-nation talks.

"We do not have the option of walking away from this problem," he said.

Hill also said the US would address the North's security and energy concerns after the nuclear issue is resolved.

"Nuclear weapons will not make [North Korea] more secure," he said. "And in fact, on the contrary, nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula will only increase tension in the region."

In a nod to Pyongyang, Hill said if North Korea "permanently, fully and verifiably" dismantles its nuclear programs, the US and other countries would offer measures "consistent with the principle of `words for words and actions for actions.'" That principle was contained in a statement at the end of the last round of talks in June last year and been repeatedly invoked by North Korea as one of its demands.

In a departure from previous meetings, Hill met his North Korean counterpart on Monday ahead of the official opening of the talks.

The US and North Korea held another meeting later yesterday after the talks opened, a US embassy spokeswoman said on customary condition of anonymity. No details of their discussion were released.

At the talks' opening, South Korea's envoy, Deputy Foreign Minister Song Min-soon, repeated yesterday his nation's offer of massive electricity aid to the North if it agrees to disarm.

In Seoul, South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young told a meeting of the ruling Uri Party that discussions on details of the offer to the North could begin as soon as Pyongyang agrees to abandon nuclear weapons.

However, he conceded North Korea would likely make a counterproposal to Seoul's offer -- which experts point out would effectively place control of the North's power supply in its capitalist rival's hands.

North Korea has demanded aid and security guarantees from Washington in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons. The US says it won't offer concessions until North Korea's nuclear weapons program is verifiably dismantled.

Don't fall into China's trap, DPP tells fruit negotiators

EXPORTS: The DPP told the delegation that will hold fruit export talks with China today to uphold the interests of farmers and not fall victim to Beijing's `subversive' tactics

By Ko Shu-ling

STAFF REPORTER

With fruit talks scheduled to begin in China today, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislative caucus yesterday called on opposition parties to safeguard Taiwanese farmers' interests instead of becoming pawns in Beijing's "united front" strategy.

"China's recent string of cooperation with opposition parties is politically motivated and aimed at boosting the pan-blue camp's chances in the 2008 presidential election," said DPP caucus whip William Lai. "I hope opposition parties stand together with our farmers and promote their long-term interests, rather than their own interests or those of their party."

Lai's remarks echoed comments made by President Chen Shui-bian on Monday. President Chen said that China's recent offer to lift tariffs on some Taiwanese fruit was a "100 percent political move -- a full-fledged war to achieve the goal of unification with Taiwan."

It is still unknown whether today's fruit talks will go ahead as scheduled, as the Mainland Affairs Council has made it clear that they will not send any authorized representatives to participate in the negotiations.

The Taiwan Provincial Farmers' Association also said that they did not receive an invitation from China to participate in the talks.

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus whip Chen Chieh, meanwhile, led a group of caucus members to China yesterday for a seven-day visit. He dismissed the speculation that his visit is related to today's talks.

Dubbed a journey of "understanding and service," Chen said the trip is aimed at finding out the problems associated with exports of Taiwanese fruit to China and attempting to seek solutions for them.

While the government has insisted on designating Taiwan External Trade Development Council to negotiate the terms of fruit exports to China, Chen Chieh said that the council knows little about the nation's fruit products and market and that the Provincial Farmers' Association would be a better body to deal with the matter.

Lai's remark was made in response to the PFP caucus' attack made earlier yesterday morning against President Chen's previous comments.

PFP policy research director Chang Hsien-yao said that he was baffled by the president's logic and inconsistent cross-strait trade policy.

He said it is unfathomable for him that fruit exports to China -- in the president's eyes -- is part of Beijing's "united front" strategy, but the annual export of 500,000 to 1 million tonnes of steel to China is not.

The only explanation Chang said he can think of is that the president's words are part of a political maneuver designed to cover up his incompetence in governing the country and his contradictory cross-strait policy.

"I find his theory unacceptable," Chang said. "I hope the president keeps his harsh words to himself and not attack opposition parties genuinely trying to do something for the people."

Chang also pledged to help farmers promote fruit exports to China and hoped to expand the fruit markets to countries in Africa and the Americas.

Responding to the president's comments on Monday, KMT chairman-elect Ma Ying-jeou yesterday called on Chen to exercise prudence in his words and stop politicizing the matter.

"Exports of agricultural products to China is conducive to farmers' income and the president should be helping them instead of laying blame on the opposition parties," he said.

"I'm curious to know whether the nation's US$60 billion annual exports to China are part of China's unification scheme. If they are, should we put a stop to it?" Ma said.

Throwing his support behind the president, Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Joseph Wu yesterday called on opposition parties to join forces with the government to uphold farmers' interests.

"Beijing has been aggressively pushing for fruit exports since its enactment of the `Anti Secession' Law," Wu said. "China's fruit export strategy is part of its `united front' strategy and is deliberately aimed at creating divisions within the country."

Taiwan concerned with regional stability: Chen

RECOGNITION: Only when Beijing acknowledges Taiwan's government will there be lasting peace in the region, the president told a group of reporters in Japan

By Chiu Yu-Tzu

STAFF REPORTER

Stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific can be ensured by cross-strait goodwill and dialogue, and a partnership between Taiwan and Japan, President Chen Shui-bian said yesterday.

The president made the remarks during a videoconference with the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan yesterday. Chen stressed the necessity of a balance between Taiwan's sovereignty and cross-strait peace.

Chen said that a "new balance of power" would ensure the stability of Taiwan's democratic institutions, which could assist non-democratic nations -- such as China -- develop democracy, and prompt resumed dialogue across the Taiwan Strait.

Chen said that since being elected president in 2000, his focus has been on domestic reforms and the normalization of cross-strait relations. But Beijing has been uninterested in engaging Taiwan's duly-elected government to resolve the cross-strait impasse.

He said that no un-official organizations could be unsuccessful in resolving problems, and those that deal with Beijing without government authorization are bound to fail.

He added that the meetings between the Chinese president and Taiwan's opposition leaders aimed at undermining the solidarity of the Taiwanese people, and not at resolving cross-strait issues.

"The APEC [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] leaders' summit in Busan, Korea, this November will provide the best platform for [cross-strait] interactions," Chen said. "It would be a good opportunity for Taiwanese representatives to meet with China's leadership."

Chen said the expansion of China's military ambition and capabilities constitutes a direct threat to democratic Taiwan and, more importantly, a potential danger to the security and peace of the Asia-Pacific region, and even the world as a whole.

"I believe that China's lack of transparency in its decision-making process, its undemocratic political system and domestic instability contribute to Beijing's military aggression," Chen said.

In February, the US and Japan made waves when the two countries agreed that Taiwan was part a "common strategic objective" in the region, and encouraged a peaceful resolution to the cross-strait impasse.

Echoing the "common strategic objective," Chen said that Taiwan and Japan have common economic, democratic and security interests.

The president also said that although Taiwan-Japan relations have chilled over a recent fishing dispute, sincere, continuous bilateral negotiations would eventually resolve the problem.

Let us govern in peace, vice president tells media

By Ko Shu-ling

STAFF REPORTER

Frustrated by party infighting and media attention, Vice President Annette Lu yesterday said that she will refuse to answer any questions regarding whether she will seek re-election in the 2008 presidential election.

"I hope the media will give President Chen Shui-bian and me some time and space to govern the country, as there are so many things that need to be taken care of," she told reporters during a trip to Pingtung County yesterday morning to inspect the aftermath of Typhoon Haitang.

Lu made the remark yesterday in response to media inquiries about a remark she made on Monday. She told reporters that she will not seek re-election, and has no plans to run in the 2008 presidential election.

Lu's remark raised political eyebrows and made headlines in the Chinese-language media.

Lu yesterday said that when she and President Chen took their oaths of office in May 2000, media attention focused on who would be the next candidate for last year's presidential election. When they won re-election last year and were sworn in in May, the media again turned their attention to potential candidates in the next presidential election.

"[The media] totally ignores what the president and I are doing at the moment," she said.

Responding to the vice president's words, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Su Tseng-chang yesterday downplayed Lu's remarks and said that the most important thing for his party at the moment is to win the year-end mayoral and county commissionership elections -- not the presidential election.

"I did not hear what she said with my own ears so I don't know exactly what she was getting at," Su told reporters before the party's weekly Central Standing Committee meeting yesterday.

DPP caucus whip William Lai said that his caucus respected each party member's decision and called on those interested in running for the country's top jobs to perform well in their position in a bid to win people's support.

Lai also praised Lu as one of the party's outstanding talents who receives high public recognition. It is in the interests of the country, Lai said, that distinguished party members be enthusiastic about vying for the country's top posts.

Navy officer warns of Chinese subs

BUILDUP: China is boosting its submarine force with the eventual aim of preventing the US from coming to the aid of Taiwan, a retired US military official said

By Charles Snyder

STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON

"I see one punch in the nose [from the Chinese], and it will ruin America as we know it today."－ Former US navy vice admiral Al Konetzni

A former senior US naval officer warned Monday that within 20 years, China will have the ability to wreak havoc on US naval forces going to Taiwan's defense against a Chinese attack.

Such a defeat of the US navy by a Chinese force "will ruin America as we know it today," Vice Admiral Al Konetzni said. He was testifying before a hearing of a commission formed by the Pentagon earlier this year to probe plans for closing dozens of US military bases in a bid to save money.

Konetzni was testifying at a hearing in Boston on plans to close the Naval Submarine Base in New London, Connecticut, one of 33 major bases slated for closure under the Defense Department's base closure initiative.

He made his comments less than a week after the Pentagon released its annual report to Congress on China's military buildup, which warned of a grave threat to Taiwan stemming from China's military modernization and of its submarine force expansion.

A key role for Chinese submarines, the report and US military experts note, would be to prevent the US from coming close enough to aid Taiwan by essentially closing off the Taiwan Strait to US vessels and troops, allowing China to complete its attack on Taiwan without US interference.

China's submarine force is larger than the US', and "in the year 2025, they'll have three times [as many as the US] at the rate we're doing business," Konetzni told the base closing commission hearing.

"I see a problem with Taiwan," he added.

"I see us putting our white hats on and going across the world and getting there" in the case of hostile Chinese military action against Taiwan requiring a US response, he said.

"And I see one punch in the nose, and it will ruin America as we know it today," Konetzni told the commission.

Until his recent retirement, Konetzni was the deputy commander of the naval command that covered Europe, the Atlantic and the Pacific. Before that he spent three years as commander of submarines in the Pacific and before that, three years in Japan and South Korea.

He testified in opposition to the closure of the New London submarine base.

There are 400 submarines in the world today, he said. China now has a larger force than the US' and in 10 years China will have twice as many submarines as the US. By 2025, the gap will rise to three-to-one, he testified.

Konetzni said that the US has fewer submarines in the Pacific than it has needed, even with the stationing of additional subs in Guam at the end of the 20th century.

"Today, we can deploy nine -- we can stretch it to 10 -- submarines at a time. Our [combat commanders] ... have a requirement for critical requirements of up to 13," he said.

"The fact is, over 30 percent of critical peacetime missions are missed annually. That means we didn't know much about the Chinese [or their] Yuan-class being launched last year," he said.

Ironically, the New London facility is one of the shipbuilding sites that could be involved in building the diesel subs that the Bush administration has been pressing Taiwan to purchase since 2001.

The Electric Boat Division of the defense contracting giant General Dynamic Corp has a variety of docks reserved for ship building, refitting and repair, which builds submarines for the US navy and for sale abroad under US official foreign arms sales programs.

General Dynamics has been named as a potential supplier of the eight submarines that are part of the NT$410.8 billion (US$12.8 billion) arms-sales package that has been held up in the legislature by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and its allies.

China readies for N Korean refugees

DETERIORATING: The food crisis in the Stalinist regime is almost as bad as it was in the 1990s, as South Korea began sending food aid to the impoverished country

REUTERS, BEIJING

North Korea's food crisis has worsened and neighboring China is bracing for more hungry refugees, aid workers said.

The impoverished communist state has suffered persistent food shortages, although conditions appear to have improved since famine caused by drought and flooding in the mid and late-1990s led to the deaths of more than a million people.

“The limited availability of local food, the very rapid inflation in private markets and limited supplies in the hands of WFP [World Food Program] － that combination of factors is very ominous.” WFP spokesman Gerald Bourke said in an interview yesterday.

The pressing food shortage is seen as partially contributing to Pyongyang's decision to resume talks aimed at defusing a crisis over its nuclear ambitions.

The talks which began in Beijing yesterday also involve South Korea, the US, Japan, Russia and China.

North Korean refugees who fled to China recently confirmed that the situation at home was deteriorating, an aid worker in China's northeastern Jilin Province told reporters.

“The food situation in North Korea is at its worst since the 1997 famine,” said the aid worker who requested anonymity.

North Korea cut daily food rations to 250 grams per person in January, just half the minimum energy requirement, from 300 grams last year. In early July, rations were slashed further in many places to 200 grams per person per day, but were increased again in mid-month.

China is bracing for more refugees spilling across the 1,400km border and has stepped up military patrols in the area. Notice boards erected outside police stations in Chinese border villages warn Korean not to help their North Korean cousins.

North Korea's food shortage is chronic, with a substantial gap between domestic production and requirement.

WFP aims to collect 504,000 tonnes of food, including cereals, pulses and vegetable oil, worth US$200 million for North Korea North Korea this year.

Suicide is the main cause of death among young adults in China, the state media said on Monday in a report that highlights the growing pressures to succeed in love, work and education in one of the world's fastest changing societies.

Increasing stress, loneliness and a lack of medical support for depression are thought to have contributed to an annual suicide toll that is estimated at 250,000 people a year.

The China Daily reported on Monday that an additional 2.5 million to 3.5 million make unsuccessful attempts to kill themselves each year. Referring a recent survey by the health ministry, the paper said that suicide was the fifth most common cause of death after lung cancer, traffic accidents, heart disease and other illnesses.

But it is most prevalent among young urban intellectuals and rural women. Exam stress, career worries and relationship problems are named as the main reasons why suicide has become the main killer of people aged between 20 and 35.

Newspapers are filled with stories of bright and wealthy college students who kill themselves because they fear that they cannot fulfill their families' aspirations. Among the most recent tragedies was the death of a student at Guangzhou University who jumped off a campus building last week.

"I'm very sorry I can not live up to your expectations," wrote the student in a farewell note.

In the first six months of the year, 14 students killed themselves in Beijing, compared with 19 in the whole of last year.

According to the Beijing Suicide Research and Prevention Center, China has 22 suicides for every 100,000 people, about 50 percent higher than the global average.

Some of those who suffer get little public sympathy, notably the 1,000-plus communist cadres who kill themselves every year after being exposed in anti-corruption campaigns. Others are ignored, particularly rural women whose suicide rate -- about 30 in every 100,000 people -- is among the highest in the world.

But political, academic and media attention has focused on depression among young urban intellectuals who are at the forefront of China's economic boom.

More than 60 percent of people surveyed in a recent two-year study of 15,431 depression sufferers were in their 20s or 30s, the China Daily said.

"Society is full of pressure and competition, so young people, lacking experience in dealing with difficulties, tend to get depressed," Liu Hong, a Beijing psychiatrist, told the paper.

Last September, the State Council issued its first mental-health policy document, aimed at targeting resources at high-risk groups and making it easier for people to receive treatment.

Since the first national suicide prevention center was established in Beijing two years ago, it has been flooded with more than 220,000 calls. But only one in 10 of those seeking support has been able to get through first time.

President Chen Shui-bian, in a videoconference that linked him up with the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo yesterday, focused on the nation's attempts to realize the virtue of understanding, effective cooperation and long-term peace in cross-strait relations. He said he hoped that under the principle of democracy, parity and peace, the door to cross-strait negotiations will be reopened.

Interestingly, in a discussion regarding the US' hope that Chinese President Hu Jintao will hold talks with Taiwan's government and president, Chen said that the Taiwanese people understand that Hu does not really want to hold talks. As to the reason behind Hu's meeting with Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong earlier this year, Chen said it was simply part of China's divide and conquer tactic toward Taiwan, and had nothing to do with opening the door for negotiations.

So, Chen is clear then that an ideal is one thing and reality is another, and that cross-strait relations are going nowhere in a hurry.

Lien's visit to China and meeting with Hu resulted in a joint communique, issued on April 29. One of the main clauses in that communique mentioned that the two parties would set up a platform for regular meetings between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the KMT. The clause also states that the first meeting will be held in Taipei before Lien steps down as chairman next month. A delegation of top KMT leaders and legislators is currently in Beijing to discuss the details of the meeting.

Chen -- who, full of wishful thinking, has been offering Beijing many goodwill gestures -- is finally waking up and is tasting the bitter fruit of his efforts. But it is surprising to see that the opposition leaders still cannot see the error of their ways. They remain full of hope that the CCP-KMT show will help improve their political prestige.

But it is just as Chen has pointed out. After Lien's, Soong's and New Party Chairman Yok Mu-ming's visits to China, they are full of ideas for peaceful cross-strait development, but this simply does not meet the test of the current reality. Beijing continues to isolate Taiwan within the international community, and even in the few months since the opposition leaders visited China, it has not made the slightest concession in continuing to pursue this policy.

Because of China's pressure, Chen will not be able to attend the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the year. The US Congress on July 20 even passed a proposal to allow high-ranking Taiwanese officials to visit the US, and called on the US government to engage in direct talks with Taiwan's elected officials. This has also been met with violent opposition from the Chinese.

China continues to treat Taiwan as the enemy and, in pursuing its cross-strait policy, has sought every means to destroy it. Given this situation, any talks in Taipei between the KMT and the CCP are not likely to yield any result beyond a mass of propaganda applauding their achievements.

We hope that the KMT will realize its naivety in trying to "bargain with a tiger for its skin." As Chen pointed out at the videoconference, if China's "peaceful rising" is not accompanied by "discovering peace" and "developing democracy," then it is unlikely to ever have a government that loves peace.

Meanwhile, the "platform for communication" that the KMT thinks it has established with the CCP will simply become a stage on which China can perform, striving to divide Taiwan. It will certainly not forward the cause of cross-strait peace. How is it that the KMT cannot see something that is so blatantly obvious?