PRC still expanding sub fleet: analysts
　

THREAT: Many security experts say that China's main objective in upgrading its submarine fleet is the ability to delay or deter US intervention on behalf of Taiwan

NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE, BEIJING
Tuesday, Feb 26, 2008, Page 1

Several recent events, from an eagle-eyed spotting of an image on Google Earth to an overt military delivery from Russia, suggest that China is continuing its rapid expansion of a submarine fleet that would be particularly useful in a conflict with the US over Taiwan, analysts and military officials said.

US and other Western military analysts estimate that China now has more than 30 advanced and increasingly stealthy submarines, and dozens of older, obsolete types. By the end of the decade, they say, China will have more submarines than the US, although it will still lag behind in overall ability.

"I would say that the US feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines," said Andrei Chang, an expert on Chinese and Taiwan military forces and editor of Kanwa Defense Review. "China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing."

The US Navy developed a range of antisubmarine sensors and weapons in the Cold War that are still considered the world's best. But fighting submarines has been less of a military priority since then, experts say.

Several events have shed light on the growth and technological advances in China's fleet.

In late 2006, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines remained undetected as it shadowed the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, although the exact details of the encounter remain the subject of continuing debate. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.

To some China experts in the US military, this was an aggressive signal to Washington that China could challenge the US Navy in waters around Taiwan. It also showed that Chinese submarine technology had advanced more rapidly than some experts had expected.

"The US had no idea it was there," said Allan Behm, a security analyst in Canberra, Australia, and a former senior Australian Defense Department official. "This is the great capability of very quiet, conventional submarines."

In July, in another sign of technological progress, China displayed photographs and models of its new Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine at an exhibition in Beijing. Two submarines of this class are in service, the official People's Daily newspaper reported then.

In October, Hans Kristensen, a researcher with the Federation of American Scientists, spotted a Google Earth satellite image that seemed to show two of China's Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. Some military analysts were surprised that China had built a second submarine of this class so soon after the first, in 2004.

And to put the improvement of its fleet on a fast track, China has also taken delivery of 12 advanced Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia, defense experts say. They say the designs of the newest Chinese submarines show evidence of technical assistance from Russia.

Many security experts, including senior Pentagon analysts, say that China's main objective in upgrading its submarine fleet is the ability to delay or deter US intervention on behalf of Taiwan.

Stealthy submarines would pose a direct threat to the deployment of US aircraft carrier battle groups, likely the first line of response to a Taiwan crisis, security experts say.

The Pentagon is monitoring China closely, officials say.

"Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing," the senior US military commander in Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, said in Beijing recently.

He urged China to be more open about its plans, which he said would reduce the risk of crisis or conflict.

Senior Chinese officers have said that the buildup is strictly defensive.

The F-22 for the friend Down Under?

Tuesday, Feb 26, 2008, Page 8

Hailed as the world's most advanced air-superiority aircraft, the F-22 Raptor, built jointly by Lockheed Martin and Boeing, is making many air forces water at the mouth. The chief of the Australian Defense Force, Air Marshal Angus Houston, has called it "the most outstanding fighter plane ever built." It is no wonder that countries like Japan and Australia have sought to acquire it.

But so far, Washington has been loath to provide even its closest allies with the aircraft, mostly over fears that the technology -- the F-22 has, among other features, stealth characteristics -- could be passed on to third parties.

In Japan's case, it is not so much that Tokyo would willfully sell the technology to a country such as China, but rather that it could be leaked. As Kyodo News agency reported in July, leaks of data pertaining to the US-built Aegis defense system by Japan's Self-Defense Forces, among others, have fed fears at the Pentagon that Japan cannot be fully trusted with advanced technology such as that found in the Raptor. Similar fears over the years have made it difficult for Taiwan to obtain some of the weapons it has sought.

But Washington could soon revisit its policy on the F-22 and other weapons systems. Despite ever-growing defense budgets, the US military is nevertheless starting to feel the pain of its various costly deployments in theaters such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Part of that overstretch could be remedied by further empowering its allies. NATO's encroachment into former Soviet territory since the early 1990s is a perfect example.

A similar phenomenon could develop in Asia, where the US is making efforts to retain its military lead. If, because of its responsibilities elsewhere, it continues to be unable to mobilize enough forces to counter what it perceives as a rising Chinese military threat, the US will feel inclined to increasingly rely on its regional allies. But reliance alone, without giving its allies the muscle they need to provide a credible countervailing force, would be meaningless.

In other words, the proxies will need to be given the weapons necessary for them to maintain a military edge over an opponent whose modernization of its own forces has made leaps in recent years and that, following the US' shooting down of a dead spy satellite last week and fears of an arms race in space, could soon accelerate.

Not only would this approach allow the US to contain or encircle China, but pressure from the military-industrial complex in the US will also lead to a relaxing of export controls that have stalled the sale of F-22s to other countries. As history has taught us, when business interests coincide with geopolitical considerations -- and the Asia-Pacific region certainly provides us with such an example -- whatever reluctance states might have to share what is theirs will evaporate.

During his visit to Australia on the weekend, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was once more asked by his Australian counterpart if the US would be willing to sell Australia F-22s to ensure air superiority over its northern neighbors.

While he did not make promises, Gates -- the same Gates who berated NATO for not doing or spending enough -- said he would raise the issue back home.

Odd as it may seem, approval may depend on Iran. If the situation there degenerates to the point the US feels the need for a military response, the Asia-Pacific will become of secondary importance to the US, which will need its regional proxies more than ever. If this happens, look for the F-22 in the skies Down Under.